R 091343Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0203
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L WINDHOEK 000394 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM WA
SUBJECT: POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN NAMIBIA FORESHADOWS 
CONTENTIOUS ELECTION 
 
REF: A: WINDHOEK 0035 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Dennise Mathieu per 1.5 (B) and (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Namibia's general elections are approximately one year 
away, but the campaign season is in full swing.  After a 
series of minor political confrontations during the Tobias 
Hainyeko by-election (reftel), a violent attack on a Rally 
for Democracy and Progress (RDP) rally by supporters of the 
ruling Southwest Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) in 
Outapi, a traditional SWAPO stronghold, has revealed a new, 
more volatile and intolerant tone to Namibian politics.  It 
has also left many wondering if senior government officials 
are willing to make it clear that political violence from any 
quarter is unacceptable.  Although previous Namibian 
elections have been relatively peaceful, 2009 may not be if 
SWAPO views the RDP as a real threat to its longtime hold on 
power. 
 
----------------------- 
Hibernating Politicians 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In recent weeks, the political atmosphere in Namibia 
has become increasingly charged.  Acts of political 
intimidation, which flared during the Tobias Hainyeko 
by-election, continue to color the political scene.  In 
addition, the SWAPO Party Youth League (SPYL) has strongly 
criticized cabinet members it accuses of being disloyal to 
the party.  In particular, Minister of Environment and 
Tourism Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwa, Minister of Safety and 
Security Dr. Nickey Iyambo, Minister of Works and Transport 
Helmut Angula, and Minister of Defense Charles Namoloh have 
been accused by the SPYL of "hibernating" as RDP supporters. 
A number of political observers believe there is a 
possibility that President Pohamba, despite having been named 
SWAPO's flag bearer for the 2009 campaign, either may decide 
not to run for a second term or may be replaced as the ruling 
party's candidate by a special party congress.  Some have 
speculated that former President Sam Nujoma is trying behind 
the scenes to arrange a scenario whereby his son, currently 
the deputy Minister of Justice, becomes the presidential 
candidate, but it is unclear how much support such a 
possibility has within the party. 
 
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Outapi 
------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) On November 23, eight supporters of the RDP and 
several police officers were injured when SWAPO supporters 
prevented the opposition party from holding a rally in 
Outapi, the regional capital of Omusati, a traditional SWAPO 
stronghold.  SWAPO supporters blocked a main road leading to 
Outapi until the police persuaded them to remove the 
roadblock.  The crowd reportedly shouted, "Omusati is not an 
RDP region; it's a SWAPO region," and taunted the RDP members 
to "go back to Oshana, Ohangwena and elsewhere where you 
belong."  Meanwhile, on another road leading to the rally, a 
convoy of RDP vehicles escorted by police was blocked by a 
second crowd of SWAPO members.  The protesters, some of whom 
were allegedly armed with guns and machetes, threw stones at 
the police and RDP vehicles before pursuing the RDP in a 
high-speed multi-vehicle chase some 50 kilometers out of 
town, where the Oshana region police force eventually stopped 
the SWAPO convoy. 
 
¶4. (C) Immediately following the incident, questions arose as 
to why the Outapi police had been out-numbered. Moreover, 
reports swirled that the Omusati police commander was on 
leave that weekend, despite the fact that he was aware of the 
potentially contentious event.  In a conversation with 
Poloff, RDP organizers Libolly Haufiku and Norah Appolus 
accused SWAPO of orchestrating the attack in advance, citing 
the large number of people and vehicles assembled.  While 
suspicious of the absent police commander, they were 
sympathetic with the plight of the police, remarking that 
they showed no bias to either side, but simply tried to 
maintain control of the situation. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Also on November 23, in Windhoek's Greenwall Matonga 
area, another opposition party, the newly-established All 
People's Party (APP) held a rally that was disrupted by SWAPO 
demonstrators.  The SWAPO branch coordinator for that area 
admitted to leading the protest, telling reporters that the 
APP had failed to ask her permission before holding its 
meeting.  Police separated the two groups, and the APP 
eventually went ahead with its rally. 
 
----------------------------- 
Provocation, not Condemnation 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Members of the RDP and other opposition parties 
expressed outrage over the Outapi incident.  With the 
exception of a statement to the media by Prime Minister 
Angula and a public letter by SWAPO elder statesman Andimba 
Toivo ya Toivo, in which he appealed for tolerance and 
political maturity and urged party leaders to refrain from 
demonizing the opposition, SWAPO leaders and senior 
government officials were largely silent. 
 
¶7. (C) In a December 5 conversation with Ambassador, Toivo ya 
Toivo elaborated his position.  While Namibia had been a star 
at independence, he lamented that the political atmosphere 
began to change in 2004. (Note: SWAPO's congress in 2004 was 
notably contentious. End Note.)  He claimed the SPYL and 
party leaders are responsible for today's political 
intolerance. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Approached for comment on November 24 by the daily 
"The Namibian," Prime Minister Angula reminded Namibians to 
respect the Constitution, which enshrines the right of 
peaceful political activity.  He went on to say, "RDP is 
organizing rallies wherever they seek publicity, and they do 
it deliberately (holding rallies in certain areas).  They 
ferry people (to rallies) in cars from far away, and they 
deliberately provoke.  Maybe it is time people should ignore 
them." 
 
¶9. (SBU) On November 28, President Pohamba made his first 
public comment regarding the Outapi rally.  In an address to 
SWAPO's central committee, he echoed the Prime Minister's 
claim that party members were being provoked by "elements whoQ 
call themselves democrats."  Referring to an incident in 
which a police officer had removed a SWAPO flag during the 
Tobias Hainyeko by-elections, Pohamba said, "It is 
unacceptable for a police officer to throw a flag of a 
political party on the ground," calling it "the highest form 
of provocation," which could result in violence.  He did, 
however, also call on political parties and the Namibian 
people to respect the authority of the police and the 
sanctity of the Constitution. 
 
¶10. (SBU) It was not until December 3 that SWAPO Secretary 
General and Minister of Justice Pendukeni Ivula-Ithana 
accepted full responsibility for the events at Outapi, 
stating that the violence took place "in the colors of 
SWAPO," and therefore the party would accept responsibility. 
She stressed to media outlets, however, that party leadership 
had had nothing to do with the incidents.  She also blamed 
the press for misrepresenting and slandering SWAPO, arguing 
it chose not to report on a letter by the Ministry of Safety 
and Security to Pohamba about the incident.  Major newspapers 
responded by claiming they had never seen the letter.  At the 
press conference, Ivula-Ithana repeated the provocation 
mantra, "We are fully aware of (the RDP's) agenda, which is 
to intimidate and provoke our members in view of next year's 
elections, to render the country ungovernable, and call for 
the postponement of elections as they usually do." 
 
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Blame Game 
---------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) According to Ivula-Ithana, the aforementioned 
police report stated there was a lack of communication 
between the police and the RDP and charged the party with 
failing to provide details such as the time and place of the 
rally.  It criticized both parties for ignoring police 
instructions, and it warned that political violence, if 
allowed to continue, could lead to chaos. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (C) The incidents in Outapi and Greenwall Matongo on the 
heels of the Tobias Hainyeko by-elections represent a new 
trend of confrontation and intolerance in Namibian politics. 
Past elections, particularly that of 2004, were contentious, 
but the scale and nature of the most recent events are of 
concern.  Despite the fact that SWAPO supporters reportedly 
yelled ethnic epithets and played upon underlying tensions 
between Ovambo ethnic sub-groups, the violence in Outapi was 
not ethnic or racial in nature.  Rather this confrontation 
was about winning votes.  SWAPO clearly feels threatened by 
the RDP and the attention it is garnering.  The RDP may 
indeed be provoking SWAPO, but if it is to win seats in the 
National Assembly, it must gain crucial support from the 
northern part of the country.  SWAPO's reaction to the 
formation of the opposition party Congress of Democrats (COD) 
in 1999 was not as aggressive.  Further, the COD did not 
campaign in the Omusati region and was not considered a real 
threat.  There is a strong possibility, however, that the RDP 
could pull support from SWAPO in Omusati.  On a positive 
note, the opposition has praised police for working hard to 
maintain order and for not favoring one side over another. 
 
¶13. (C) As to whether SWAPO has lost control of its members, 
it seems more likely that senior leadership has decided that 
this a battle better fought by those in the trenches-- 
leaving regional and branch coordinators to defend their 
districts.  It is disappointing that the normally moderate 
Pohamba has not spoken out forcefully about SWAPO's tactics, 
but given some of the internal maneuvering within SWAPO over 
the 2009 elections, he may be feeling pressure to espouse a 
harder line than he normally would be comfortable with. End 
Comment. 
 
 
MATHIEU