P 151633Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6743
INFO AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL DURBAN PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG PRIORITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 
CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002716 
 
 
USUN FOR AF A/S J. FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL ZANU SF ZM
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA FEELING THE HEAT ON ZIMBABWE CRISIS 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Madeline Q. Seidenstricker. 
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: South African leaders have recently stepped 
up their level of activity and pronouncements on the Zimbabwe 
political and humanitarian crises.  Former President Thabo 
Mbeki's facilitation team, without Mbeki, remain engaged with 
the political parties, pressing for the quick establishment 
of an inclusive government.  South African Government (SAG) 
high-level officials have led fact-finding missions to 
Zimbabwe and the South African region that borders Zimbabwe 
to assess the humanitarian crisis and make recommendations 
for the SAG's response.  African National Congress (ANC) 
leaders are speaking out on suspected abductions in Zimbabwe. 
 Civil society organizations are calling directly on South 
Africa as well as the region and the international community 
to take action against Mugabe and for the people of Zimbabwe. 
 Although South African engagement is increasing on many 
levels, the SAG firmly supports an inclusive government and 
shows no inclination to demand that Mugabe step down. End 
summary. 
 
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MBEKI TEAM CONTINUES AS SADC FACILITATOR 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) On November 26, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) 
leader Morgan Tsvangirai called for Mbeki to recuse himself 
as the facilitator for negotiations between the political 
parties.  Tsvangirai spokesman George Sibotshiwe told poloff 
on December 10 that the South African facilitators "don't 
understand" the issues at stake.  Department of Foreign 
Affairs (DFA) Deputy Director of Zambia and Zimbabwe John 
Vilakazi told poloff in a December 9 meeting that the SAG did 
not support a new facilitator because it could delay 
resolution of the crisis.  He said that to appoint a new 
facilitator at this date "would not make sense" as that 
person would have to build trust with the parties and might 
be rejected by ruling Zimbabwean party Zanu-PF.  He said 
President Kgalema Motlanthe, as the chair of the Southern 
African Development Community (SADC), would consult the rest 
of the SADC countries on this issue.  Mbeki's facilitation 
team (his former legal advisor Mojanku Gumbi and former 
Minister of Safety and Security Sydney Mufamadi) has 
continued informal discussions with the political parties, 
according to Sibotshiwe. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
SAG PRESSES FOR QUICK ADOPTION OF INCLUSIVE GOVERNMENT 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶3. (U) At a December 9 seminar on the Zimbabwe crisis hosted 
by reputable think tank Institute for Democracy in South 
Africa, Zimbabwe analyst Sydney Masamvu said the facilitation 
team was pushing for a quick resolution to the political 
crisis in order to take international and domestic pressures 
off Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and off South Africa. 
Masamvu said the facilitators pressed the political parties 
to gazette the draft version of Amendment 19 agreed to on 
November 27 by the negotiating teams of Zanu-PF, MDC-T and 
MDC-M.  On December 13, the ruling Zanu-PF gazetted Amendment 
19, which will establish the framework for a power-sharing 
Q19, which will establish the framework for a power-sharing 
government, including creating the position of prime minister 
and deputy prime minister.  Although normal parliamentary 
procedure in Zimbabwe allows for debate of proposed 
amendments for 30 days before going to a vote, the SAG wants 
the parties to bypass this process and put it to a vote 
without delay, according to a December 9 press briefing by 
DFA Director General Ayanda Ntsaluba.  On December 13, 
President Kgalema Motlanthe issued a statement welcoming the 
draft amendment and said he expected the prime minister and 
deputy prime minister to be sworn in "with immediate effect." 
 Mbeki issued a separate statement urging the parties to form 
an inclusive government "as soon as possible." 
 
¶4. (C) Going against the wave of recent calls from global 
leaders for Mugabe to step down, the SAG continues to favor 
an inclusive government.  Ntsaluba said during the December 9 
press briefing, "The posture that we are assuming now, is not 
the posture of pressurizing President Mugabe to step down. 
The pressure on President Mugabe and Zanu-PF is for them to 
move with greater speed to successfully implement the 
agreement that was signed on 15 September 2008 so that an 
inclusive government can be established."  Irish Ambassador 
Colin Wrafter told econoff that a December 9 meeting of 
European Union chiefs of missions to South Africa on Zimbabwe 
focused on the SAG's military capacity for intervention. 
Regarding that possibility, Ntsaluba said during the press 
briefing, "As to whether South Africa would ever contemplate 
deploying troops - I cannot see that arising.  I do not 
believe that is on the agenda of the South African government 
at all although I cannot predict what will happen in the next 
twenty years.  But for now, and of course, in the current 
debate, I do not think that the South African government is 
persuaded that that is the right way to go." 
 
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SAG MOTIVATED BY HUMANITARIAN CRISIS AND SELF-INTEREST 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5. (C) The SAG is taking note of the worsening humanitarian 
crisis in Zimbabwe and its impact on South Africa.  On 
December 8, former Director General of the Presidency and key 
player on Zimbabwe policy under Mbeki Reverend Frank Chikane 
led a delegation of SAG officials and a SADC representative 
to Zimbabwe to determine what humanitarian assistance South 
Africa and SADC should provide.  They met with the UN's World 
Food Program, Food and Agriculture Organization and 
Children's Fund as well as churches and farmers' unions.  SAG 
spokesman Themba Maseko said the aid package would be 
announced this week.  On December 9 Health Minister Barbara 
Hogan led a delegation to assess the cholera outbreak in 
Limpopo Province along the border region with Zimbabwe, which 
has experienced a massive influx of Zimbabweans escaping the 
crisis.  Following the visit, the Limpopo Provincial 
Government (LPG) declared the Vhembe district, which borders 
Zimbabwe, a cholera disaster area due to the number of 
cholera-related deaths and infected persons.  LPG spokesman 
Mogale Nchabeleng said the disaster status would free up 
funding, focus relief efforts and reduce response time.  The 
Limpopo River, which touches South Africa, Zimbabwe and 
Mozambique, has tested positive for cholera. 
 
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ANC ESCALATES INVOLVEMENT ON ZIMBABWE 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) On December 10 the ANC and ANC Women's League issued 
statements of concern over the disappearance of human rights 
activist Jestina Mukoko and other suspected abduction 
victims.  While the ANC statement urged the political parties 
in Zimbabwe to come to agreement on a political solution, the 
ANC Women's League directed its demand for a resolution to 
the leadership of the SADC region.  The Women's League will 
convene a meeting of progressive women organizations in the 
SADC region to discuss the Zimbabwe crisis. 
 
¶7. (C) On December 12, the United Kingdom (UK) Minister for 
Africa, Asia and the UN Mark Malloch-Brown met with ANC 
Treasurer General Matthews Phosa, according to British High 
Commission Officer on regional issues Mark Norton.  Norton 
said the ANC is looking for ideas on how South Africa can 
help resolve the crisis in Zimbabwe.  Phosa is planning a 
trip to the UK December 15-17 where he will meet with 
Malloch-Brown as well as with the UK Foreign Ministry's 
QMalloch-Brown as well as with the UK Foreign Ministry's 
Zimbabwe team.  Phosa will report to ANC President Jacob Zuma 
upon his return.  Norton said UK officials are developing 
ideas to share with Phosa and they think this is a positive 
indication of potentially greater South African involvement 
in bringing the crisis to a resolution.  Norton said SAG 
Foreign Minister Dlamini-Zuma has asked for a meeting with 
British Foreign Secretary Miliband in January. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
CIVIL SOCIETY CALLS FOR MUGABE TO STEP DOWN... 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶8. (U) On December 11 non-governmental organization South 
African Liaison Office (SALO) hosted a seminar geared at 
building international consensus on Zimbabwe.  A broad range 
of civil society leaders directed their recommendations for 
saving Zimbabwe to South Africa, regional organizations and 
the UN.  Rights activist and Open Society Initiative for 
Southern Africa Program Director Isabella Matambanadzo 
remarked that this was the first SALO event where there was 
consensus that Mugabe must step down from power.  An 
important exception to this consensus was MDC-M President 
Arthur Mutambara, who said there were three options for 
moving forward: popular uprising, forcing Mugabe out and 
forming an inclusive government.  He said the first two were 
not practical at the moment.  Mutambara felt by forming an 
inclusive government, the opposition could then change the 
constitution and prepare the country for free and fair 
elections.  He criticized Western governments for not being 
willing to use military force to oust Mugabe.  He warned that 
if the country collapsed, Tsvangirai would not necessarily be 
able to take power and Zimbabwe could become the next 
Somalia. 
 
------------------------------ 
...AND SOUTH AFRICA TO STEP UP 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (U) Deputy Speaker of Parliament and ANC Member of 
Parliament Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge said South Africa should 
not recognize Mugabe as head of state.  She recommended a 
boycott of South African companies that are profiting from 
the crisis in Zimbabwe.  Leader of the Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn 
party Simba Makoni, former Zanu-PF Minister of Home Affairs 
Dumiso Dabengwa and Matambanadzo called for SADC to take a 
position on the June 2008 SADC observer mission report, which 
stated that the presidential runoff elections did not 
represent the will of the people and did not conform to 
SADC's principles governing democratic elections. 
Matambanadzo called on South Africa to condemn the abductions 
and forced disappearances of activists and others in Zimbabwe 
and for a new framework for mediation.  Father Michael 
Lapsley of the Institute for the Healing of Memories said 
South Africa should remove visa requirements for Zimbabweans. 
 He lamented, "I feel a sense of shame about (South Africa) 
failing the people of Zimbabwe.  We failed ourselves, our 
history." 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND UN NEED TO GET TOUGH 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶10. (U) Madlala-Routledge emphasized the "responsibility to 
protect" of the African Union and the UN.  Women of Zimbabwe 
Arise representative Jenni Williams urged the UN to change 
its food distribution model to allow access of all hungry 
Zimbabweans to food assistance.  She said the system in place 
now legitimizes Zanu-PF and prevents most activists from 
accessing food aid.  UN High Commission for Human Rights 
Officer David Johnson welcomed the call for greater UN 
involvement.  He said there needs to be a specific call for 
UN human rights monitoring in Zimbabwe to lower the 
occurrence of violations.  He said regional leaders, not 
Western countries, must lead this initiative in order to gain 
necessary support for implementation.  Mutambara said calls 
from Western leaders for Mugabe to go were well-intended, but 
"played into Mugabe's hands" and were ineffective.  He said 
regional leaders such as Motlanthe and Angolan President Jose 
Eduardo dos Santos needed to send strong messages to Mugabe. 
 
¶11. (C) Comment: South Africa is seized with the Zimbabwe 
crisis at several levels.  The leadership is increasingly 
cognizant of the damage that implosion of the Zimbabwe 
political and economic structures is having on South Africa's 
domestic front and international reputation.  The cholera 
outbreak may yet arouse citizen anger if the SAG fails to 
Qoutbreak may yet arouse citizen anger if the SAG fails to 
respond adequately.  While the SAG appears to be addressing 
the cholera crisis, it is willfully ignoring the larger 
problem of massive numbers of sick and desperate Zimbabweans 
entering South Africa.  The SAG has no coherent policy that 
addresses the influx of Zimbabweans, which may trigger 
renewed xenophobic attacks or may become an issue in next 
year's national elections.  Importantly, the crisis has the 
potential of becoming a significant domestic political issue 
at a time when the ANC looks to be losing its position of 
total dominance in the Parliament.  The ANC is taking steps 
to place itself at the front of the Zimbabwe issue.  While 
there is reason to hope for greater levels of SAG engagement 
on Zimbabwe, the political leadership is holding strong on 
its official support for the Mbeki mediation process and an 
inclusive government.  So far the SAG demonstrates no 
appetite for getting tough on Mugabe. 
 
 
BOST