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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PESHAWAR 000536 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  12/16/2018 
TAGS: PTER MOPS SNAR PGOV PK
SUBJECT: NWFP: BELEAGURED SWAT 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Michael A. Via, Acting Principal Officer, 
Peshawar, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (a), (b), (d) 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) One year after the military entered Swat and nearly six 
months after the collapse of a peace deal with Mullah Fazlullah, 
security conditions in the district appear to be worsening with 
increasing indications that the advantage lies with the 
militants.  Violence is steadily creeping into Mingora, one of 
Swat's principal towns located near the district capital Saidu 
Sharif.  Targeted killings of local officials and political 
figures have become a common occurrence.  Beheadings appear to 
be a favored means of execution to intimidate the population. 
There are also early signs that neighboring districts Buner and 
Dir may be facing trouble from insurgents.  Overshadowed by 
operations in Bajaur and complicated by the politics of the 
settled areas, Swat's deepening security woes are illustrative 
of Pakistan's challenge in the northwest frontier -- too many 
trouble spots and too few forces.  End Summary. 
 
Resurgent Fazullah 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Multiple local officials have expressed concern to 
Principal Officer that the insurgency in Swat is re-gathering 
its strength.  Led by Mullah Fazlullah who has declared 
allegiance to Tehrik-i Taliban's Baitullah Mehsud, militants 
have maintained a steady stream of attacks not just in their 
strongholds of Matta, Charbagh, Kabal, and Khwazakhela tehsils 
(approximately 25-40 km north of Saidu Sharif), but increasingly 
are hitting targets in Swat's more urban areas. 
 
¶3. (C) Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) Chief Minister Haider 
Hoti and other Awami National Party (ANP) politicians complain 
that the military halted the campaign against the insurgents 
prematurely in February, allowing Mullah Fazlullah to escape 
into the Peochar valley and surrounding mountains (northwest of 
Saidu Sharif).  (Note: ANP captured six of the seven Provincial 
Assembly seats in Swat district in the February elections.) 
11th Corps Commander General Masood and other military officers 
criticize the provincial government for striking a deal with 
Fazullah in May. 
 
¶4. (C) Over the summer, the NWFP's peace agreement with Fazullah 
broke down, but as the violence began to pick up in the 
district, operations in Bajaur became the increasing focus of 
the military and Frontier Corps in August.  While the 17th 
Division (headquartered in neighboring Dir district) has a 
presence in Swat, it is also responsible for back up support to 
Bajaur.  Chief Minister Hoti and other officials characterize 
the bulk of the army's operations as artillery strikes which 
carry force but are also inaccurate, resulting frequently in 
collateral damage. 
 
¶5. (C) The police, on paper, are Swat's primary patrol force, 
but Hoti acknowledged to the PO that police are deserting in 
Swat in large numbers.  (Note:  Hoti and NWFP Governor Ghani 
have been pressing President Zardari for federal assistance to 
improve the quality of training and benefits of the NWFP police. 
 The NWFP police salary/benefits package appear to be about half 
of what their counterparts in Punjab receive.)  Representatives 
of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) who 
visited Swat recently told the Embassy's Border Coordinator that 
the police and civilian administration were virtually nowhere to 
be found in Saidu Sharif, and in Mingora. 
 
Mingora -- "Not Safe" 
--------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) One local official with multiple tours of duty in the 
NWFP's northern districts recently declared flatly to PO, 
"Mingora is not safe."  (Note: Mingora is a few kilometers 
northwest of Saidu Sharif on the opposite side of the Swat 
River.)  Militants, he said, were steadily creeping into 
Mingora.  Violence in the Mingora area alone since late November 
includes: 
 
-- November 22: Several satellite dish and electronic shops were 
burned down or damaged near a police station. 
 
PESHAWAR 00000536  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
-- November 24: A female employee of a local NGO was murdered 
and mutilated in her home after reportedly criticizing local 
taliban at a press conference. 
 
-- November 30: A VBIED suicide attack killed ten and injured 50 
near a security post at the entrance of the city. 
 
-- November 30: A CD shop was burned. 
-- December 2: An army convoy was ambushed, resulting in the 
death of one soldier. 
 
-- December 8: The bodies of three barbers were found beheaded. 
 
 
-- December 11: A school housing Frontier Corps personnel near 
the airport was attacked with rocket fire.  No casualties 
reported. 
 
-- December 12: The residence of ANP Member of the National 
Assembly Muzzaffawal Mulk Khan was attacked.  The MNA was not 
injured, but it is unknown if there were other casualties. 
 
Targeted Killings 
----------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Targeted killings have become a staple of life in Swat, 
particularly in TTP's strongholds: 
 
-- August 25:  Militants attacked the home of the brother of 
Waqar Ahmed Khan, an ANP Member of Provincial Assembly, in Kabal 
tehsil, killing the brother, two nephews, and seven others.  TTP 
claimed responsibility for the attack. 
 
-- October 2:  ANP's District Vice President for Swat was killed 
in the district (details NFI). 
 
-- October 24: A police officer was found beheaded in Charbagh 
tehsil. 
 
-- October 27: TTP beheaded the member of a Matta tehsil lashkar 
as a "warning" to others who might oppose them. 
 
-- November 22: The brother of ANP's provincial Minister for 
Environment Wajid ali Khan was gunned down in Mingora.  The 
minister's brother was a police officer. 
 
-- November 25: A city council member in Matta tehsil was gunned 
down. 
 
-- November 26: A senior police officer assigned to neighboring 
Buner district was gunned down while visiting his family in 
Mingora.  The officer was a native of Matta tehsil. 
 
-- December 4: A senior ANP leader for Upper Dir who had 
assisted in setting up a lashkar in his area was gunned down 
while visiting Mingora.  TTP claimed responsibility and warned 
that those engaged in similar activities would be "punished." 
 
-- December 6: The secretary to an ANP Member of the Provincial 
Assembly was found with his throat slit in Khwazakhela tehsil. 
 
Trouble in Neighboring Districts? 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Buner and Dir districts which border Swat to the south 
and west have largely been quiet.  Local contacts comment that 
both districts have a history of strong, tightly knit community 
leadership.  When the military entered Swat a year ago, a number 
of communities in both districts told fleeing local taliban to 
stay clear of their areas.  In recent weeks, however, there has 
been a smattering of reports of threats and attacks in these 
districts that appear to be linked to militant activity. 
 
-- December 3: Local taliban picked up a woman for "immoral" 
activities in Dir and warned others to refrain from vulgarity 
and obscenity. 
 
 
PESHAWAR 00000536  003 OF 003 
 
 
-- December 11: TTP in Darra Adam Khel claimed responsibility 
for an Eid suicide attack near a mosque in Buner's district 
capital Daggar which killed one and injured four.  TTP said the 
attack was in retaliation for the deaths of TTP associates in 
Buner in August.  The TTP associates had killed several Buner 
police officers, angering locals who reportedly surrounded the 
house of the militants, executed them, and exhibited the bodies. 
 
 
-- December 12: Local taliban in an area of Lower Dir had banned 
people's movements in local bazaars and on the roads during 
prayer times and asked mosques to observe uniform prayer 
timings.  Community leaders reportedly told local taliban to 
cease out of concern that the pronouncements would be the 
catalyst for a military operation. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (C) There is a fair amount of bitterness and finger-pointing 
in the NWFP over the continuing deterioration of security in 
Swat.  ANP leaders insist that the May deal was necessary under 
Pashtun culture because the party who refuses to talk is deemed 
to be at fault.  Despite strong words in private from ANP 
provincial leadership of the need to "wipe out" Mullah Fazlullah 
and key members of his circle, that tough talk has not 
translated into a unified, coherent, public ANP voice on how to 
deal with Swat's re-surging militants.  The police, confronted 
with a hardened, well-armed adversary are demoralized and unable 
to cope.  Stretched thin by other demands, particularly 
continuing operations in Bajaur/Mohmand, the Pakistani military 
and other security forces are not in a position to respond 
consistently to this growing hot spot, illustrating the 
continuing challenge that Pakistan faces on its northwestern 
border. 
VIA