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AMCONSUL PESHAWAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000531 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  12/15/2018 
TAGS: PTER MOPS SNAR PGOV PK
SUBJECT: FATA: BAJAUR/MOHMAND -- POST-EID PLANS, BUT ARE THERE ENOUGH 
FORCES? 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne M. Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate 
Peshawar, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) After a pause over the Eid holidays, Frontier Corps is 
gearing up for continuing operations in Bajaur and Mohmand. 
Gains in Bajaur have been hard won but remain fragile.  Bajaur 
militants, although damaged, retain the ability to hit security 
forces and government supporters.  Peshawar contacts express 
concern that many militants have merely hidden in the mountains 
waiting for the security presence in Bajaur to ease as attention 
turns south to Mohmand and beyond.  Sufficient Pakistani force 
levels to "clear and hold" remains the core challenge for 
stabilization of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) 
and the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP).  Based on the 
security trends of the past two years, our assessment is that 
there are not enough appropriate forces to hold Bajaur, expand 
into Mohmand, and handle the FATA and NWFP's other trouble spots 
such as Swat (septel).  End Summary. 
 
Bajaur -- Hard Won Gains 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Since operations began in August in Bajaur, Pakistani 
forces have achieved hard won gains with the help of lashkars 
(local tribal militias).  In early December, Frontier Corps 
began consolidating its position at Nawagai, approximately 10 km 
west of the Nawa Pass on the Afghan border.  Nawagai also 
controls the road south into Mohmand where Pakistani military 
have been conducting air strikes over the past month.  Frontier 
Corps Commandant General Tariq Khan told PO that the people in 
Mohmand were "waiting" for the arrival of government forces. 
(Note:  There are some permanently based Frontier Corps in 
Mohmand but primarily at the agency's capital Ghallanai.) 
 
Post-Eid Operations 
------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) According to Peshawar-based U.S. military sources, 
Frontier Corps is delaying until late December a push west to 
squeeze the militants along the Bajaur/Kunar border.  Operations 
to clear the lines of communication southward from Nawagai into 
Mohmand are taking priority and are slated to begin o/a December 
¶17.  In recent weeks, there have been reports that Mohmand's 
Haleemzai tribe is openly supporting the government and calling 
on other tribes in the agency "to root out" militants.  The 
Haleemzai have reportedly handed over to the government 70 
"wanted" individuals. 
 
Limited to Lines of Communication 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Much of the military progress in Bajaur thus far has been 
limited to re-taking the "lines of communication" -- roads and 
key towns such as Loyesam and Nawagai.  FATA Secretariat 
Additional Chief Secretary Habibullah Khan emphasized to PO that 
mobility is the militants' strength in the FATA's difficult 
terrain.  Other Peshawar contacts worry that Bajaur's militants 
will hold out in the mountains as they did in Swat, waiting for 
the security presence to ease up. 
 
¶5. (C) General Tariq told PO that security forces must have air 
mobility to match the militants' capabilities.  Without that 
tool, security forces will remain limited to the lines of 
communication, he said.  The Frontier Corps Commander remarked 
that his troops also need to dominate space through aggressive 
patrolling.  At present, the militants know the terrain better 
than the security forces, he added. 
 
Bajaur Militants Still Able To Strike 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Although limited in scope and damage, Bajaur's militants 
have demonstrated a continuing ability to strike back.  On 
December 13, according to local press reports, insurgents fired 
rockets on the home of Salarzai tribal lashkar leader Malik 
Kamal Khan.  No casualties were reported.  Rockets landed on 
Bajaur's capital Khar, causing some property damage, but no 
injuries.  On December 12 in Nawagai, insurgents opened fire on 
a Frontier Corps post and later attacked the house of 
pro-government tribal leader Maulana Guldad Khan, killing Khan's 
brother.  Khar was hit with rockets on December 12, but no 
casualties or damage was reported.  On November 20, a suicide 
bomber attacked a mosque in Mahmond tehsil, killing nine, 
including a lashkar leader. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) Frontier Corps has 58 wings (each wing is approximately 
600 soldiers) -- many of which are under strength, amounting to 
an overall deficiency of at least 7,000 soldiers.  On top of 
rebuilding these under strength wings, General Tariq is asking 
for an additional four wings.  While on paper these numbers may 
seem high, the difficulty of the terrain and the multiplicity of 
troubled areas have spread Frontier Corps thin.  The Pakistani 
army, although present in large numbers, is primarily a Punjabi 
force that operates from large bases and because of language and 
cultural differences is limited in its ability to interact with 
the Pashtun tribal populations.  These shortfalls have meant 
that FC forces have been unable to cycle out for rest and 
training.  With the Waziristans a continuing concern and other 
hot spots including the Peshawar area, Khyber, Swat, Kohat, and 
Orakzai, pressing for infusions of security forces, Pakistan's 
core challenge for stabilization of the FATA and the NWFP 
remains the buildup of sufficient force levels, across the 
Frontier Corps, Frontier Constabulary, and Police to "clear and 
hold. 
 
 
TRACY