Herbert S Traub  12/16/2008 09:40:21 AM  From  DB/Inbox:  Herbert S Traub

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UNCLAS        MUNICH 00388
CXMUN:
    ACTION: POL
    INFO:   MGT CONS RSO PA FCS CG JIS

DISSEMINATION: POL /1
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: CG: EGNELSON
DRAFTED: POL: HSTRAUB/HKRUEGE
CLEARED: BERLIN/POL: BBERNSTEIN, SOTTO, LEIPZIG/POL: EBACKMAN, FRKFT/POL:

VZCZCMZI256
PP RUEHC RUEKJCS RUCPDOC RUEHZG RUCNMEU RUCNFRG
DE RUEHMZ #0388/01 3471213
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 121213Z DEC 08
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4585
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000388 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV GM INRB
SUBJECT:  GERMAN "INDEPENDENTS" CHALLENGE MAINLINE PARTIES IN 
BAVARIA AND COULD AIM HIGHER 
 
REFS:  A) Munich 358 and previous, B) Frankfurt 3300, C) Berlin 
1623 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) A new sort of German politician, the Freie Waehler 
(Independent Voters) (FW), has invaded the parliamentary turf of 
establishment parties at the top of Bavarian politics.  Their 
leadership dreams expansively of its first-ever nationwide campaign 
for the European Parliament in June 2009, hoping to replace the 
heretofore dominant Christian Social Union (CSU) and, at the same 
time, start a revolution in how Germany elects its leaders.  The FW, 
a self-proclaimed "community of interests" rather than a "party," 
has a recognizable conservative-style approach to governing that 
emphasizes "freedom from party ideology," although critics lampoon 
them as "free of concrete ideas."  Their leadership in Bavaria 
believes that grass-roots voter contact with their elected officials 
is the future of politics in Germany and that this approach gives 
the FW an advantage over the traditional parties that are committed 
to a top-down party structure.  End Summary. 
 
Emphasizing Individual Competence, Strong Grassroots 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Consul General and ConGen Munich staff met with the 
leadership of the Bavarian Freie Waehler (Independents) on December 
¶7.  Hubert Aiwanger (chair of the Bavarian FW since 2006) admitted 
that his 21 FW colleagues who won Landtag seats hardly knew each 
other before they rendezvoused in November when the Landtag 
constituted itself.  Voters "liked how the FW emphasized candidate 
individuality over party platforms or discipline," according to 
Aiwanger's colleagues Tanja Schweiger and Gabriela Pauli -- formerly 
a CSU district councilor and nemesis of former Minister President 
Edmund Stoiber -- who joined Aiwanger at the table.  They observed 
that the FW capitalized on 30 years of strong growth at the 
municipal and rural level, where the FW holds 40 percent of city 
council seats, fourteen of 71 district administrators, and every 
third Bavarian mayor's office.  Twenty-nine percent of Bavarian 
farmers, former guaranteed supporters of the Christian Social Union 
(CSU), voted FW in 2008.  These FW strengths stand in contrast to 
the few thousand Bavarian Free Democratic Party (FDP) members who 
enjoy practically no representation in some rural areas in Bavaria. 
Aiwanger believes that the FDP (rather than the FW) ended up as the 
CSU coalition partner because of the CSU's national ambitions. 
 
Unfazed by the Lack of a Platform 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU)  While the main German political parties struggle to craft 
and project a modern image to which voters can relate (reftels), the 
FW advocates "a more American style of politics and politician," as 
Aiwanger put it, adding, "We believe the voters want to influence 
politics directly."  When pressed, he could not specify any policy 
or program that concretized the FW philosophy, and, like the voters, 
his team seemed unfazed by the FW's lack of a party platform.  "The 
voters know us and trust us to do our best to solve the real 
problems of real people," Schweiger insisted. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Without an official platform or substantial party 
structure, the FW Independents positioned themselves in opposition 
to the perceived "autocratic style and haughty tone" of the 
"entrenched CSU" in Bavaria, Aiwanger said.  The switch for CSU 
voters to the FW was made easy since the FW philosophy is basically 
conservative, Schweiger explained, adding that the FW emphasizes 
"social" values like "personal freedom and helping those unable to 
help themselves," which also conforms to a CSU perspective.  FW 
politicians "feel closest to small and medium-sized business, not to 
big companies," Aiwanger added.  They are stronger down at the grass 
roots and at the lower levels of government, and have not made the 
leap to the big leagues, Pauli admitted laughing.  She observed that 
her FW colleagues still have no office staff, and that "the papers 
produced by the Landtag bureaucracy are piling up on our desks." 
 
Dreams of Replacing the CSU in the European Parliament 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Aiwanger said the Independents would caucus in early 
February 2009, and thought a majority would, like him, push for a 
decision to run nationwide in the European Parliament elections in 
June 2009.  Currently, other than in Bavaria, the Independents are 
particularly powerful in the German states of Baden-Wuerttemberg, 
Hesse, Thuringia and Saxony.  Running nationally would especially 
challenge the CSU, and Aiwanger was delighted at the prospects of 
stealing so many votes from them in Bavaria that the CSU, confined 
to campaigning only in Bavaria, would fail to reach the nationwide 
threshold of five percent to enter the European Parliament.  The FW 
representatives were less sanguine about prospects that the FW would 
participate in German national elections in September 2009, since it 
would require a more complex organization and a restructuring that 
might lead to a split between supporters and opponents of the idea. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Aiwanger conceded that the FW is challenged to identify 
candidates and set up an organized campaign in time.  He also has to 
face the fact that a significant number of FW adherents, both in 
Bavaria and in other States, believe the FW should stick to what it 
does best and not run for offices above the municipal level, 
according to media reports and comments from FW adherents in the 
field. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The FW leadership in Bavaria believes the time has come to 
change the way Germans elect their leaders.  They want to replace 
the slow-moving, entrenched national parties and overbearing 
ideologies with something that they perceive as "more American," 
emphasizing individual personalities who cultivate direct voter 
contacts.  With thirty years experience at the municipal level, the 
challenge will be for the FW to maintain their proud diversity based 
on local teams while they strive to maintain coherence in the big 
leagues.  Before the September 2008 Landtag elections, with the FW 
successfully emphasizing "personality," CSU leaders missed the point 
when they mocked the FW for its lack of a concrete platform.  A 
successful FW national campaign for the European Parliament in June 
2009 that even replaces the CSU there could reduce the CSU to 
nothing more than a regional player and, at the same time, start an 
evolutionary change in how Germany elects its leaders.  End comment. 
 
 
¶8.  (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with 
Consulates General Frankfurt and Leipzig and Embassy Berlin.  Track 
Munich reporting at 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. 
 
NELSON