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RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHMC #0559/01 3531605
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181605Z DEC 08
FM AMCONSUL MONTERREY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3369
INFO RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 4404
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHMC/AMCONSUL MONTERREY 8903

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MONTERREY 000559 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON KCRM KCOR MX
SUBJECT: PAN AND PRI TEST MEXICO'S NEW ELECTION REFORM LAWS IN NUEVO 
LEON 
 
REF: MONTERREY 172 
 
MONTERREY 00000559  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Summary 
 
 
 
¶1.         (U) Summary.  Nuevo Leon is the largest of the six 
Mexican states holding gubernatorial elections in 2009 and will 
be the first major test of the federal electoral reform passed 
in November 2007.  The race will also be an important measure of 
the relative strength of the national PAN and PRI parties as the 
PAN is eager to recapture a governorship it lost to the PRI in 
¶2003.  Improving the deteriorating security situation in Nuevo 
Leon will be the leading election issue and the election 
potentially will be a referendum on President Calderon's 
administration.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
The New Election Process 
 
 
 
¶2.         (U)  As the first step in the new election process, 
the PAN and PRI released their guidelines for choosing their 
candidates for governor.  The PAN party decided to use a closed 
state party election and the PRI decided to use an open state 
primary.  Neither party chose to use `el dedazo' or direct 
designation of a candidate.  The PRD has a negligible presence 
in Nuevo Leon and has not announced how it will choose a 
candidate. 
 
 
 
¶3.         (SBU) The state PAN party leadership voted 40 to 20 
to use a closed election process instead of an open election 
process.  The PAN reasoned that a closed election would avoid 
the influence of the PRI party in their internal affairs.   The 
State PAN President, Juan Carlos Ruiz, also privately said to 
Poloff that the possibility of drug cartels influencing voters 
is higher with an open election and a closed nomination process 
will produce a "clean" candidate.  In addition, some political 
observers think that a closed primary was chosen by the PAN to 
lessen the chances of nominating the current mayor of Monterrey, 
Adalberto Madero, as the PAN candidate for Governor.  Madero is 
seen as a populist, and has been hounded by allegations of 
corruption, but he led the most recent statewide poll.   Those 
that supported open elections, including the PAN National 
President, German Martinez, claimed that the closed election 
process lends itself to backroom dealing between party members 
and is not in the best interests of the public.  The national 
PAN party still has the power to reverse the decision of the 
Nuevo Leon PAN party. 
 
 
 
¶4.         (U) After the PAN decision to opt for a closed 
selection process, the state PRI leadership unanimously decided 
to have an open primary to elect their candidate.  At the PRI 
press conference, party leaders contrasted their decision to the 
PAN's decision and portrayed their party as the more democratic 
of the two.  In choosing an open primary, PRI leaders pointed 
out that the current PRI governor of Nuevo Leon Jose Natividad 
Gonzalez Paras was elected using an open primary and won the 
general election in spite of the PRI's losses in the state 
legislature. 
 
 
 
¶5.         (U) Now that the process for determining candidates 
has been decided, the election reform laws set shortened primary 
and general campaign dates.  Candidates will have until January 
14, 2009 to formally submit their names for selection.  The 
primary period will run from January 15 to March 15.  The 
general election campaign will be held between March 16 to July 
¶4.  The election is scheduled for July 5 and the governor-elect 
will take office October 5. 
 
 
 
¶6.         (SBU) With the new election laws, campaign 
expenditures as well as the number of TV and radio commercials 
are controlled.  For the 2009 election, the PAN and PRI parties 
are each allowed to spend nearly US$500,000 during the primary 
season and nearly US$2.5 million during the general election. 
The amount of TV or radio airtime allowed is determined by a 
formula issued by the Federal Election Committee (IFE).   The 
first 30% of all airtime is divided equally among all of the 
recognized parties and the remaining 70% is determined by 
percentage of votes won in the previous election cycle. 
Political parties do not have specific limits for print or 
 
MONTERREY 00000559  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
internet advertising.  Other interest groups such as private 
businesses, universities or trade unions are not allowed to 
purchase campaign advertisements.  According to Eduardo Guerra, 
President of the Nuevo Leon State Electoral Commission (CEE), 
the political parties are complying with the advertising limits. 
 Unlike in previous elections, the state election commission now 
has the power to remove candidates if they break election laws. 
Note.  There are several allegations that Mayor Madero began his 
pre-campaign months before the permitted time, but the CEE 
continues to investigate the case and hopes to have a decision 
before the primary elections.  End Note. 
 
 
 
¶7.         (SBU) The influence of organized crime is another 
risk to the campaigns.   Guerra says to prevent the entry of 
illicit money in political campaigns, the CEE is authorized to 
audit the financial records of the political parties and 
political campaigns before, during, and after the elections, 
including their bank accounts.  To prevent voter intimidation, 
the CEE is training election monitors for each polling station 
and coordinating with the national army and state and federal 
police to provide security for polling stations the day of the 
elections.  However, as the CEE does not monitor the candidates' 
personal bank accounts or properties, it would not know if 
narco-traffickers bribed the candidate but did not contribute to 
the campaign. 
 
 
 
Election Issues 
 
 
 
¶8.         (SBU) Security and the economy are the main issues in 
the upcoming elections.  In a December 3 poll by Monterrey's 
Milenio newspaper, 71% of respondents cited security as the 
number one issue and 16% of respondents cited the economic 
crisis or employment as the most important issue.  Ideologically 
in Nuevo Leon, the PAN and PRI are both very similar.  The 
candidates Poloffs have talked to all agree that security 
followed by the economy are the main issues for the elections. 
The candidates have similar plans to improve security by 
increasing police presence, stamping out corruption and 
increasing cooperation among security forces.  Eloy Cantu, a 
current candidate and longtime PRI politician, believes the 
election will be determined by the candidate that can 
demonstrate the best leadership.   Rodrigo Medina, also a PRI 
candidate, agrees and adds that up to 40% of voters in Nuevo 
Leon are undecided until Election Day so personality will be 
very important. 
 
 
 
Leading PAN Candidates 
 
 
 
¶9.         (SBU) Fernando Larrazabal is currently a local 
congressman and is reportedly favored to win the PAN nomination. 
 Larrazabal is helped by the closed primary system since he has 
the backing of the majority of party members, including two 
mayors from the Metro Monterrey area and many of his fellow PAN 
congressmen.  Larrazabal was formerly a mayor of San Nicolas and 
is popular with working class voters.  Some of his opponents 
charge that in the past he has not been fully transparent on 
financial matters. 
 
 
 
¶10.       (SBU) Fernando Elizondo is currently a federal senator 
and a former interim governor of Nuevo Leon.   Elizondo was 
interim governor from March 2002 to January 2003 when the then 
governor took a cabinet position in the Calderon administration. 
 The senator comes from a prominent Monterrey family and has 
been very critical of the current governor of Nuevo Leon in 
terms of fiscal responsibility and security.  Elizondo is a 
pragmatic leader and very well respected by his peers.  Elizondo 
is also a former energy secretary and therefore very familiar 
with energy issues.  Elizondo believes very strongly in working 
with the United States to address common issues such as border 
security, energy, immigration and trade.  However because of the 
closed primary, Elizondo will have a difficult time winning as 
party's nomination since he lacks the state PAN member support 
of Larrazabel.  However, Elizondo does have PAN leadership 
support on the national level and he is hoping that the national 
PAN party intervenes to assist his candidacy. 
 
 
 
 
MONTERREY 00000559  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶11.       (SBU) A possible spoiler candidate is Fernando 
Margain.  Margain is currently the mayor of San Pedro, an 
affluent city in the metro Monterrey area, and a former Federal 
Senator.  Margain is seen as a very intelligent and strong 
politician and is a credited for his very capable administration 
of San Pedro.  Margain is especially praised for making the San 
Pedro police force the most respected of all the regional police 
forces.  Margain has the support of the business community and 
could possibly be a compromise candidate should the Larrazabel 
and Elizondo forces deadlock. 
 
 
 
¶12.       (SBU)  The current Mayor of Monterrey Adalberto Madero 
is also a contender because of his appeal to working class 
voters.   In the latest statewide poll taken by El Norte, Madero 
has a 10 percentage point lead in popularity over the other 
candidates.  Madero also beat the leading PRI candidate Abel 
Guerra for Mayor of Monterrey in 2006.  However, because of the 
PAN's closed election system Madero is not favored to win. Party 
leaders feel that the corruption charges against Madero may 
damage the party.  Some prominent members of the Monterrey 
business community have accused Madero's administration of 
`corruption without limit.' 
 
 
 
Leading PRI Candidates 
 
 
 
¶13.       (SBU) Abel Guerra is currently the most popular of the 
PRI candidates and has enough PRI party member support to win 
the PRI nomination.  Guerra has been previously both a federal 
and state congressman and is presently the Nuevo Leon State 
Public Works Chief.  Seen as an `Old Line' PRI member, Guerra is 
especially popular with the lower classes in Nuevo Leon but will 
have trouble winning over the support of the middle and upper 
classes. 
 
 
 
¶14.       (SBU) The other leading PRI candidate is Rodrigo 
Medina, the current Secretary General for Nuevo Leon and former 
federal congressman.  Medina is 36 years old and will likely 
appeal to younger voters who make up over 60% of the electorate. 
 Medina has the support of Governor Jose Natividad Gonzalez 
Paras, and the Governor often asks Medina to represent him 
before key PRI constituencies such as labor unions.  Gonzalez 
Paras invited Medina to join his cabinet in 2007 when Medina was 
a federal congressman and has been grooming him ever since.  One 
of the governor's advisors told Poloff that Medina also has the 
support of media outlet Televisa and could gain the support of 
TV Azteca.  Despite these advantages, as Medina is little known 
among the general public and he does not appear to have the 
support of the majority of PRI party members,  it will be 
difficult to win because of the shortened election cycle and 
spending limits.  It remains to be seen if the Governor's 
popularity will carry Medina.  While the governor still enjoys a 
62% approval rating, it is down from 82% three years ago. 
 
 
 
Comments 
 
 
 
¶15.       (SBU)  Comment.  The gubernatorial election will be 
closely watched on a national level as a test of the federal 
election reforms and their impact on the national PAN and PRI 
parties.  The Nuevo Leon election law favors well known parties 
and candidates, since underdog candidates and parties have 
little time and few media spots to overcome more established 
candidates and parties.  Politically, the PAN and PRI 
potentially will use the election as a referendum on President 
Calderon.  The PRI party claims poor implementation of 
Calderon's policies has led to the deterioration of the security 
situation. The economic crisis is not now as important in 
voters' minds as the security situation but it is a growing 
concern that could eventually shape the election.  However, for 
the most part, the effects of layoffs and tightening credit 
associated with the crisis will not be felt until next year. 
Neither of the two major parties have specific plans on how to 
deal with the crisis but how they position themselves with the 
middle and working classes will be an example for the rest of 
the country.  End Comment. 
WILLIAMSON