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FM AMCONSUL MELBOURNE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4825
INFO RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEHZU/APEC COLLECTIVE
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0029
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH 1483

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MELBOURNE 000141 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PTER PGOV AS
SUBJECT: Australian Counterterrorism Ambassador on Progress, 
Prospects 
 
MELBOURNE 00000141  001.2 OF 002 
 
REF: 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) During a November 26 address, Australia's Ambassador for 
Counter-Terrorism, Bill Paterson indicated that his country would 
maintain its focus on Southeast Asia by stepping up operational 
capacity there.  Recounting his recent visit to the United States, 
Paterson said he had been struck by the persistent U.S. concern of 
another domestic terrorist attack as well as the increased attention 
on northwest Pakistan as "terror central."  He assessed that 
al-Qaida remains a challenge due to the expansion of sanctuaries in 
Pakistan's tribal areas.  Paterson did not indicate any reduced 
support of U.S. counterterrorism efforts, but was careful to 
indicate that Australia is assuming a greater role in its own 
backyard.  End Summary. 
 
Australia and Counterterrorism 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Speaking to Monash University's annual "Radicalization 
Crossing Borders" conference on November 26, Australia's Ambassador 
for Counter-Terrorism, Bill Paterson said that his country will 
remain focused on Southeast Asia.  Australia will step up efforts to 
improve customs and border security programs and will continue to 
track the financial flows of terrorist organizations.  Based on its 
experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, Australia will expand and 
improve upon its anti improvised explosive device (IED) technology. 
In addition to pursuing education reform in Southeast Asian 
madrasas, Australia will promote interfaith dialogue and prison 
reform.  Paterson acknowledged that "significant vulnerabilities" 
remain, but did not elaborate further on the topic. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Commenting on his recent visit to Washington, Paterson said 
that he was struck by a persistent U.S. fear of another terrorist 
attack on the homeland.  He also noted the increased emphasis the 
USG is placing on northwest Pakistan as "terror central."  He 
speculated that President-elect Obama might change some of the 
"language" around terrorism - such as the Global War on Terror - but 
the Obama administration will likely maintain a focus on 
counterterrorism efforts.  He expects the Obama administration to 
continue to move the U.S. counterterrorism strategy from kinetic 
(military) operations to a "whole of government" approach. 
 
Assessment of al-Qaida 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Paterson said that al-Qaida has undergone a paradigm shift. 
 The organization is "transnational, franchised, and underpinned by 
a shared ideology based on a warped view of Islam."  He stated that 
al-Qaida is "under pressure," but likely to remain a challenge as it 
represents a model others may follow.  While al-Qaida's operational 
capacity has been reduced in the years following 2001, it has 
recently begun to "regenerate" due to new sanctuaries found in 
Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). 
 
¶5. (SBU) According to Paterson, a geographic base has been critical 
for al-Qaida, allowing it to attract funding and new recruits. 
Outside of this new base, al-Qaida remains a "coherent, small group" 
with Bin Laden and Zwahiri still at the organization's apex.  He 
stated that some local terrorist groups operate in al-Qaida's name, 
but sometimes work at counter purposes with al-Qaida by pursuing 
unrelated, local and divergent goals.  Paterson said that obtaining 
new technologies to inflict mass casualties remains a key al-Qaida 
objective. 
 
Once Around the World 
--------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Al-Qaida in Iraq remains the largest and most capable 
franchise.  Paterson said that although Sunni groups have degraded 
some of al-Qaida's effectiveness, the organization still retains 
influence in northern parts of the country.  Muslims in the Maghreb 
and throughout Africa are "pushing back" against the use of 
violence.  In the southern Philippines and Thailand, extremists 
remain entrenched, though local rather than transnational concerns 
motivate these groups.  Jamaat Islamiah is "weakened" and the group 
has returned to its proselytizing. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) While Ambassador Paterson did not make any ground-breaking 
counterterrorism policy announcements during his November 26 
address, his emphasis on Australia's growing role in Southeast Asia 
 
MELBOURNE 00000141  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
are instructive.  At no time did Paterson indicate a diminished role 
in supporting key U.S. foreign policy objectives, but Australia's 
interest in policing its own backyard is becoming more pronounced. 
 
THURSTON