VZCZCXRO0928
PP RUEHDU RUEHJO
DE RUEHTN #0247 3541418
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191418Z DEC 08 ZDK
FM AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2900
INFO RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 6257
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 2069
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 3208

UNCLAS CAPE TOWN 000247 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF
SUBJECT:  ANC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL REIGNS IN ITS WESTERN CAPE 
PROVINCIAL LEADERS 
 
¶1. (U) On December 17 and 18, the ANC National Executive Council 
(NEC) met to discuss its roadmap for the upcoming months, in 
particular with regards to the ANC provincial leadership in the 
Western Cape.  The Western Cape Provincial leadership of the African 
National Congress (ANC) is again under fire this time for its 
failure to register candidates on time for the recent by-elections 
and the party's subsequent poor performance in the province.  The 
ruling party secured only three of the 27 wards contested in the 
recent by-elections in the Western Cape. The ANC said it would have 
performed better at the polls had its candidates in 12 of the wards 
been allowed to stand. The blame for the by-election shambles has 
been placed firmly at the door of provincial chairperson, Mcebisi 
Skwatsha. 
 
 ¶2.  (U) The NEC decided not to suspend Skwatsha, but stripped the 
provincial leadership of all powers. When asked by reporters whether 
Skwatsha had been sanctioned for the party's failure to register for 
the recent by-elections, national ANC spokesperson Carl Niehaus said 
he had not. Emphasis had instead been put on what to do to 
strengthen the party. Rather than disband the provincial leadership 
and risk the total collapse of the party in the region, the NEC will 
take control of the province. In addition, a high profile team of 
top ANC officials has been deployed to the Western Cape to ensure 
effective campaigning and strong leadership in the run up to the 
national elections. 
 
¶3. (SBU) On December 19, Poloff spoke to the Chief Whip of the ANC 
(Booi), himself a member of the NEC, regarding the political 
situation in the Western Cape.  Booi said Skwatsha would remain in 
office, but has been stripped of any decision making authority.  A 
team of NEC members has been sent to the Western Cape to try and 
strengthen the party in the run up to the 209 national elections. 
Booi also said the ANC is focusing heavily on the Western Cape in 
the 2009 elections and, "will put a lot of energy into the 
Province."  He also said that current polls indicate the ANC will 
win 26 percent of the vote in the Western Cape, "but the ANC wants 
more."  Poloff asked why the ANC is weaker in the Western Cape than 
in other areas of SA and Booi responded, "because the core of the 
community is colored and the colored are divided between the ANC and 
other opposition parties."  He said the ANC will heavily target the 
colored communities in their Western Cape election campaigns.  Booi 
believes the low voter turnout in the recent by-law elections shows 
"the people are angry that the ANC was not allowed to run and thinks 
that the people who failed to vote as a protest to the by-law 
elections, would vote for the ANC in the national elections." 
 
¶4. (U) Comment: There is a growing political weakness (as well as 
endemic disarray) in the ANC in the Western Cape; the leadership in 
the province has long been surrounded by controversy and plagued 
with problems. The former Premier Ebrahim Rasool was sacked, 
aggravating discontent among the colored voters, the provincial 
secretary was stabbed in the neck at a party event, and countless 
other party meetings have been marred by intimidation and 
allegations of patronage and vote-buying. When the ANC Youth League 
gathered to elect its leadership in April, the conference was 
suspended after some delegates got into drunken brawls, throwing 
chairs and exposing themselves to the media. The ANC recently 
expelled many of its regional secretaries in the Western Cape and 
Qlocal members feel that the only thing that helped Skwatsha maintain 
order was the fact that he had strong regional secretaries who did 
the hard work and were able to cover for his inefficiency. 
 
¶5. (U) Comment:  The latest by-election debacle is merely another 
step in the continued downward spiral of the ANC in the province. 
The Western Cape has never been won outright by the ANC and remains 
the only province where the party is not dominant. The City of Cape 
Town is already in the hands of the opposition alliance and the ANC 
has been struggling to regain its foothold in the province. With the 
emergence of Cope and the strong gains made by the Democratic 
Alliance in the by-election, it appears unlikely that the ANC will 
make any significant gains in the province despite deploying members 
to manage the party in the region. End comment.