VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBY #1246/01 3442102
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 092102Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0644
INFO RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM  PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 001246 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/ANP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018 
TAGS: MARR PREL AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN RESPONSE: CHINA MILITARY POWER, U.S. 
DOD 2008 REPORT TO CONGRESS 
 
REF: STATE 20659 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for reasons 1.4(b) and 
 (d) 
 
¶1.  (C/NF) SUMMARY:  Australian views and efforts on Chinese 
military modernization largely mirror those of the U.S. 
according to John Quinn, Assistant Secretary, Strategic 
Issues and Intelligence Branch, Department of Foreign Affairs 
and Trade.  Quinn reiterated to Poloffs on December 9 the 
need for greater transparency coupled with responsible 
engagement as the most important issues for global Chinese 
relations.  He suggested that Australia may be more forward 
leaning about engaging the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in 
regional Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief (HA/DR) 
efforts than the U.S., while acknowledging the need to 
balance the risks of exposing the Chinese to modernizations 
that would fill gaps in their military.  Quinn emphasized the 
value of continuing U.S. bilateral discussions on the order 
of the "Crawford Talks" (NOTE:  These were held in Canberra 
on the margins of the POL-MIL meetings in October 2008, under 
the chairmanship of OSD Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense 
for East Asia, David Sedney.  End Note.).  He pointed out 
that ineffective responses to the global financial crisis or 
exacerbated responses to internal political pressures could 
disrupt China's normally pragmatic view and highlighted the 
need for a direct link between the U.S. and China to manage 
crisis situations.  Quinn expressed hope that there would be 
continuity on U.S. Chinese policy under the new U.S. 
administration.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (C/NF) In a formal response to the 2008 U.S. DOD Report 
to Congress on China's Military Power, Assistant Secretary 
John Quinn advised the Embassy that Australian views and 
efforts largely mirror those of the U.S.  He reiterated the 
need for greater transparency coupled with responsible 
engagement as the most important issues for global Chinese 
relations.  Quinn noted Australian bilateral engagements with 
China during 2008 at the Ministerial level in February and 
through defense talks in July.  He characterized these 
discussions as "frank and open".  Quinn observed that FM 
Smith pointedly requested greater transparency from China on 
its military modernization intent and accounting.  Quinn 
noted Australia may be more forward leaning than the U.S. in 
its efforts to actively engage the PLA in regional HA/DR 
activities, but acknowledged the risks from additional 
Chinese exposure to other military capabilities.  He also 
said that Australia seeks to increase Chinese engagement in 
ASEAN activities in Southeast Asia.  On the other hand, the 
GOA remains concerned about China's support for Sudanese 
leadership and its unhelpful role in Zimbabwe.  Quinn noted 
that China's participation in the Six Party Talks has been 
helpful and expressed hope that the next administration would 
continue to engage China as a responsible stakeholder in 
these discussions. 
 
¶3.  (C/NF) The intentions of China's power projection 
capabilities remain obscured by the lack of accurate and 
timely reporting, Quinn observed, noting that the annual 
military expenditures report China promised to the UN 
Secretary General has yet to be produced.  In bilateral 
discussions, Australia suggested China address these issues 
in its forthcoming Defense White Paper.  Quinn noted that 
Australian intelligence reporting concurs with U.S. estimates 
of Chinese defense spending at twice the reported levels.  He 
remarked that China's modernization of its nuclear forces 
Qremarked that China's modernization of its nuclear forces 
creates command and control uncertainty, shifting from 
centrally controlled, silo-based weapons to mobile weapons 
under local command.  He also noted advances made in the last 
ten years to accelerated the transfer of dual use technology 
between the civil and military arenas.  With many young 
Chinese drawn into more lucrative private enterprise 
positions, Quinn questioned who may be currently joining the 
PLA, the composition of its future leadership, and the impact 
of corruption on military modernization efforts.  He 
indicated that China's long-term military agenda remains 
unclear and that Australia continues to seek greater 
transparency through its bilateral discussions. 
 
¶4.  (C/NF) Quinn emphasized the utility of continuing U.S. 
bilateral forums on China in 2009.  He mentioned the benefits 
of the "Crawford Talks" several times and indicated a strong 
desire to continue these (NOTE:  These were held in Canberra 
on the margins of the POL-MIL meetings in October 2008, under 
the chairmanship of OSD Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense 
for East Asia, David Sedney.  End Note.). 
 
¶5.  (C/NF) Quinn identified the danger of potential future 
 
disruptions to China's normally pragmatic approach, which 
could result from ineffective responses to the global 
financial crisis, exacerbated responses to internal political 
pressures, or a confrontation over maritime "pushing and 
shoving".  He commented that potential disruptions such as 
these highlight the importance of a direct telephone links 
between the U.S. and China to provide a safety valve for both 
countries to avoid dangerous misunderstandings. 
 
¶6.  (C/NF) Quinn provided a documented response which has 
been scanned and sent by classified email to Aleisha 
Woodward, Australia Desk Officer, EAP/ANP. 
 
MCCALLUM