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O 011210Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5263
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RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 9249
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RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 2527
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003521 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
NSC FOR PHU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV TH
SUBJECT: SUPREME COMMANDER TELLS AMBASSADOR MILITARY WILL 
REMAIN OUT OF FRAY AND PREDICTS PAD WILL SOON FALTER 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary. In a December 1 meeting, Supreme Commander 
General Songkitti Jaggabartra predicted to the Ambassador 
that the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) would not be 
able to sustain its hold on the nation's key international 
airports for more than a few days.  Songkitti again stressed 
that the Thai military would not intervene in politics; 
persistent coup rumors were spread by those who wanted 
society divided.  The Supreme Commander agreed with the 
Ambassador's call for the Thai government to prepare for 
threats by protesters to other key parts of Thailand's 
infrastructure such as utilities and seaports.  The police 
were best prepared for such defense, Songkitti said. 
 
¶2. (C) Comment.  Songkitti's assessment that the PAD will 
have trouble maintaining support and will likely vacate the 
Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports is welcome after days of 
gloomy predictions regarding options for clearing the PAD 
from the Thailand's primary international gateways but likely 
overly optimistic.  Even if the government regains control of 
the airports soon, it will be key to for the government to 
demonstrate the backbone and the ability to take a stand 
against future protests by the PAD.  The military's continued 
insistence that intervention in the political arena is not an 
option is a positive step in the effort to potentially 
resolve the underlying divide that had plagued Thai politics. 
 End comment. 
 
ARMY SEEKS SOLUTION VIA BOTH SIDES STEPPING BACK 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶3. (C) During a December 1 meeting with Royal Thai Armed 
Forces (RTARF) Supreme Commander General Songkitti 
Jaggabartra at RTARF Headquarters, the Ambassador stressed 
that the only way to resolve the crisis would be through a 
political solution.  Songkitti said the Thai military had for 
months stated that a coup would not be an option but many 
people refused to believe this.  The Supreme Commander told 
the Ambassador the military would not intervene; rumors of a 
coup were being spread by those who wanted to create 
divisions within society. 
 
RTG MUST PREPARE FOR OTHER THREATS 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) The Ambassador stressed to Songkitti that the RTG must 
prepare for future threats to key infrastructure.  The 
Ambassador raised reports that the PAD may disrupt Thailand's 
seaports and energy and communication utilities.  The 
government must have a plan in place to protect this critical 
infrastructure, otherwise international confidence in 
Thailand would suffer even more, the Ambassador told the 
Supreme Commander.  Songkitti agreed with the Ambassador's 
view and pointed to the Royal Thai Police as the arm of 
government that should maintain domestic law and order.  The 
police trained for riot control situations while the military 
trained to defend the nation from external threats.  It 
should be easy to keep protesters from returning to 
Suvarnabhumi once the PAD vacated as access routes could be 
easily controlled by airport guards and police, Songkitti 
said. 
 
¶5. (C) In the interim, Songkitti expressed confidence in the 
ability of the Royal Thai Navy (RTN) to protect commercial 
aircraft operations Utapao from disruption.  RTN Commander 
Admiral Khamtorn Pumhiran had assured Songkitti that Utapao 
would not be closed by the PAD. 
 
PAD LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the RTARF assessed that 
the PAD could continue to maintain their hold on the 
Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports.  Songkitti doubted this 
was possible.  According to RTARF estimates, approximately 
2,000 protesters were located at Suvarnabhumi and 
 
BANGKOK 00003521  002 OF 002 
 
 
approximately 800 were located at Don Muang.  Songkitti said 
there were only 500 PAD supporters at Government House and 
said it was likely they would depart the grounds soon.  While 
PAD leaders had asked supporters to vacate Government House 
in order to reinforce the airports, Songkitti predicted many 
would go home instead.  Of the 500 at Government House, maybe 
200 would continue the protest at the airports.  Songkitti 
pointed to the King's birthday parade December 2 and to other 
events for the King's birthday December 4-7 as factors that 
would further decrease the PAD's numbers.  Those who 
respected the King would likely leave the airports in the 
coming days and the mob would not continue, Songkitti said. 
As such, the Supreme Commander predicted that the PAD will 
have left the airports within two or three days. 
 
¶7. (C) Songkitti predicted that the PAD would not be able to 
sustain protests if the Constitutional Court decided to 
dissolve the ruling People's Power Party as many predicted 
would happen in the coming days.  PAD leaders had based the 
protest on their call for Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat to 
resign.  PAD leaders were set in their opposition to the 
Prime Minister because he was former Prime Minister Thaksin 
Shinawatra's brother-in-law.  If Somchai lost his position 
due to the Courts ruling, PAD supporters would likely go 
home.  The leaders of the movement could not change the 
reason for the protest every month or so and expect 
supporters to maintain their commitment to the protest, 
Songkitti said.  The Thai people would understand that PAD 
leaders were spreading falsehoods if the leaders tried to set 
new conditions for the protests. 
 
¶8. (C) Comment: Although welcome, we believe Songkitti's 
assessment on the PAD may be prematurely optimistic.  The PAD 
has given no indication that either a Constitutional Court 
decision or the King's birthday would be cause for abandoning 
its blockade of the airports.  Moreover, the departure from 
Government House likely is a purely tactical move to help 
bolster numbers at the airports, and appears to be designed 
solely for the nighttime hours, when the PAD has been subject 
to several grenade attacks. 
JOHN