VZCZCXRO2912
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #3520/01 3361201
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 011201Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5260
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 003520 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER AND LIZ PHU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2018 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KJUS ASEC CASC ECON EINV TH
SUBJECT: THAI STALEMATE DRAGS ON, FOCUS SHIFTING TO COURT 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 3504 (LOOKING FOR WAY OUT) 
     ¶B. BANGKOK 2616 (COURT RULINGS) 
     ¶C. BANGKOK 2091 (CLOUDED FUTURE) 
 
BANGKOK 00003520  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b and d). 
 
SUMMARY AND COMMENT 
------------------- 
 
¶1. (C) An explosive device injured dozens of participants in 
the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) 
gathering at the Government House compound on November 29. 
Citing safety concerns, a PAD co-leader called for supporters 
to decamp from Government House, although PAD may retain some 
presence there.  PAD has thwarted police efforts to block the 
delivery of supplies for demonstrators at Bangkok's 
international airport, and police officials told the Embassy 
that they would not act forcefully against the demonstrators. 
 The police feel that public support for PAD is waning.  Over 
10,000 pro-government protestors rallied in Bangkok, 
signaling dismay with an upcoming Constitutional Court ruling 
that will likely dissolve the People's Power Party (PPP) and 
remove Prime Minister Somchai from office.  An American 
automobile executive informed the Embassy that some union 
workers at his Thai facility seemed to be taking their cue 
from PAD tactics and blockaded his plant, in response to a 
breakdown of negotiations on pay issues.  PAD leaders have 
publicly discussed shutting down Thai seaports, and they 
appear to have some capability to do so.  A top Foreign 
Ministry official told the Ambassador on December 1 that 
Thaksin was in Cambodia and might try crossing into Thailand 
on December 2.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Comment: Our contacts have long expected the 
Constitutional Court to dissolve PPP.  The case against PPP 
is based on election fraud committed by a single PPP 
executive, and, although party dissolution seems like a 
disproportionate sanction, this penalty appears 
constitutionally-mandated; it is unclear whether the Court 
has the discretion to spare the party, if it were inclined to 
do so (which we doubt).  The Court ruling might allow PAD to 
declare victory and vacate its protest sites, but it also 
should leave in place a pro-Thaksin government, meaning that 
PAD's ultimate objective will remain unfulfilled.  Any 
progress PAD achieves toward its goal will increase the ire 
of the pro-Thaksin camp.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
BOMB INJURES DOZENS 
------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Reports continue of small explosions and infrequent 
gunfire in areas of Bangkok close to PAD protest sites. 
While most incidents have occurred without injuries, an 
explosive device that detonated at the Government House 
compound on the night of November 29 injured at least four 
dozen PAD supporters, although none died from their injuries. 
 Citing safety concerns, PAD co-leader Chamlong Srimuang 
called publicly on December 1 for PAD supporters to decamp 
from the Government House compound and rally instead at the 
Bangkok airports, which remain in PAD hands.  It appears the 
PAD will leave some guards in place at Government House 
overnight to prevent the authorities from regaining control, 
and PAD will continue to hold rallies there during the 
daytime. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Over the weekend of November 29-30, the police set 
up a checkpoint blocking access to Suvarnabhumi international 
airport.  In response, Chamlong called for PAD supporters to 
proceed from Government House to the airport, to challenge 
the police.  When confronted, the police abandoned the 
checkpoint, which PAD supporters dismantled to ensure they 
could continue to supply their sympathizers at the airport 
with food and water.  Separately, PAD guards shot at a media 
van approaching the Don Muang domestic airport on November 30. 
 
 
BANGKOK 00003520  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶5. (C) RSO contacts in the Royal Thai Police (RTP) informed 
us they do not intend to take forceful action against PAD 
protestors at the airports.  The RTP officials said they had 
no good options to resolve the situation; the use of force 
would entail "deaths and many injuries."  (Note: While some 
PAD guards fit the profile of street thugs, many of the 
protestors at the airport are middle-aged, elderly, and/or 
women.  End Note.)  Our RTP contacts said they were willing 
to let the airport protests continue because it was turning 
public opinion against the PAD, and even some demonstrators 
were becoming disillusioned.  The RTP is currently 
negotiating with the PAD, but the talks appear not to be 
substantive.  (Comment: As in September, the declaration of a 
state of emergency for the airports on November 27 -- ref A 
-- appears to have carried with it little consequence.  End 
Comment.) 
 
REDSHIRTS RALLY AGAINST EXPECTED COURT RULING 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Over 10,000 pro-government demonstrators ("redshirts," 
affiliated with the "Truth Today" government-run television 
show, and with the United Front of Democracy Against 
Dictatorship -- UDD) gathered peacefully in Bangkok on 
November 30 to decry a seemingly imminent ruling by the 
Constitutional Court in party dissolution cases.  These cases 
(ref B and C) stemmed from findings by the Election 
Commission and Supreme Court that executive board members of 
the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party, the Chart Thai Party, 
and the Matchima Thippathai Party violated election laws. 
Article 237 of the 2007 Constitution provides that such 
violations, if committed or even tolerated by party 
executives, trigger a presumption that the party sought to 
acquire state power by unconstitutional means and, therefore, 
the party can be dissolved by the Constitutional Court, with 
all its executives subject to a five-year ban on political 
activity.  (Comment: Article 237 appears not to provide the 
Court with substantial discretion to spare the parties from 
dissolution; our pro-Thaksin contacts are certain the Court 
will dissolve PPP, whether or not the Court has leeway in 
this matter.  End Comment.) 
 
¶7. (C) A lawyer who works closely with Thaksin spoke 
pessimistically to us on December 1 about the upcoming 
verdict, saying the Court had not allowed PPP to present its 
evidence.  (By contrast, prior to the May 2007 dissolution of 
the Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT), the Constitutional Tribunal 
handling that case held extensive hearings, although that 
took place under a different legal framework.)  The PPP has 
prepared a backup party for pro-Thaksin legislators, but our 
contact predicted that redshirts in the North and Northeast 
-- the PPP's strongholds -- would vent their frustration by 
burning courthouses in those regions. 
 
FEWER YELLOWSHIRTS IN BANGKOK 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) After Thais began wearing yellow a few years ago to 
show support for King Bhumibol, PAD adopted the color for its 
movement.  (Per a longstanding tradition, Thais associate 
yellow with Mondays; the King was born on a Monday.)  While 
many Thais with office jobs routinely wear yellow polo shirts 
to work on Mondays, Embassy officers noted on December 1 a 
sharp decrease in the number of "yellowshirts" in central 
Bangkok.  MFA staff separately remarked to us on the notable 
drop-off in yellow.  (Comment: We believe this decrease 
reflects widespread dismay with the PAD's closure of the 
airports.  End Comment.) 
 
PAD INSPIRING AUTO UNION PROTEST 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) PAD's protest tactics may have inspired union 
employees at a foreign automobile facility in Rayong, 
Thailand.  A Ford Motor Company executive contacted the 
 
BANGKOK 00003520  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Embassy on December 1 to inform us that, after a breakdown of 
talks over compensation, union employees blockaded the 
AutoAlliance Thailand (AAT) plant throughout the day on 
November 27.  (AutoAlliance Thailand is a joint venture of 
Ford and Mazda.)  Although employees were able to dribble out 
of the facility, the (nonviolent) blockade continued as of 
December 1; the executive also informed us that several 
engines (presumably products, rather than plant equipment) 
were sabotaged.  AAT has closed its facility until December 
¶8.  The executive stressed that the problems between the 
management and the union were not political, but he 
nevertheless believed the union leaders had taken a cue from 
the PAD, and he was surprised with what he considered an 
inadequate response from police officials.  (Note: The 
Embassy reached out to a labor activist in touch with the 
union; he disputed some aspects of management's view but 
noted the union is "pretty militant."  End Note.)  The 
Ambassador raised this issue with the Foreign Ministry late 
December 1, and the Commercial Counselor spoke with the 
Governor of Rayong, who had dispatched a Vice-Governor to the 
scene. 
 
THREAT TO SEAPORTS? 
------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) Separately, police officers told RSO that PAD had the 
capability to follow through on recent public threats to 
interfere with the functioning of Thailand's seaports; or, 
PAD could disrupt the electricity supply to Bangkok.  A 
high-ranking MFA official told the Ambassador recently that 
PAD had strong support from officials and employees in State 
Owned Enterprises.  An Australian diplomat told us that 
retired diplomat Kasit Piromya, closely affiliated with PAD, 
recently confirmed that PAD continues to contemplate 
disrupting seaport operations, if necessary to further their 
goals.  The police do not seem to have any contingency plan 
to protect the ports. 
 
THAKSIN TO RETURN? 
------------------ 
 
¶11. (C) After a December 1 meeting at the MFA (septel), MFA 
Permanent Secretary Virasakdi Futrakul in a private 
pull-aside told the Ambassador that Thaksin was in Cambodia, 
meeting with Hun Sen.  Virasakdi said Thaksin might try to 
cross into Thailand on December 2.  (Comment: It was not 
clear what Thaksin would do in Thailand or how long he would 
stay, but this would be a highly dramatic move, likely 
exacerbating the current polarization.  End Comment.) 
JOHN