VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #1669/01 3360821
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 010821Z DEC 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0476
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8767
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0221

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001669 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: THE MUMBAI TERRORIST ATTACKS, THE U.S. 
MILITARY STRATEGY, U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage November 29 - December 1 on the probe into the former first 
family's corruption scandals; on the economic downturn in Taiwan; 
and on speculation about a cabinet reshuffle. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, regarding the Mumbai 
terrorist attacks, a column in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China 
Times" commented on the attacks as relating to South Asian 
geopolitics and the United States' war on terror.  An editorial in 
the conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
hailed United States President George W. Bush's efforts in fighting 
terrorism and cast doubts on whether Bush's successor Barack Obama 
can protect the United States from the threat of terrorism.  With 
respect to the United States' military presence in the Asia-Pacific 
region, an op-ed in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei 
Times" commented on the United States Pacific Command's subtle 
revised combat strategy which was unveiled recently.  In the 
U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, an editorial in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taiwan News" criticized President Ma Ying-jeou's 
cross-Strait policy, saying that Ma's policy could win favor in 
Washington but lead to an undemocratic "final solution."  End 
summary. 
 
¶3. The Mumbai Terrorist Attacks 
 
A) "The Effect of the Mumbai Terrorist Attacks" 
 
The column "Concept Platform" in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China 
Times" [circulation: 220,000] wrote (11/30): 
 
"The shock wave of the Mumbai terrorist attacks has repercussions on 
the direction of South Asian geopolitics.  [The attacks] also gave 
advance notification that the war on terror is not over yet, and 
even challenged the layout of the United States' global war on 
terror. ... 
 
"Pakistan is an important partner of the United States in the global 
war on terror as well as being friendly with China.  The conflict 
between India and Pakistan will definitely change Pakistan's warfare 
deployment and invisibly provide 'Al Qaida' with room for survival. 
The result of such a strategic change of direction certainly will 
disrupt the time schedule of the United States' war on terror.  In 
order not to be involved in the incident and become a target of 
public criticism, Pakistan instantly denied that it instigated the 
attacks behind the scene or incited the attacks, and it ordered 
officials to help in the investigation.  What [Pakistan] put into 
consideration was the element of the United States' anti-terrorism. 
... 
 
"The Mumbai terrorist attacks hit the sensitive nerve of conflict 
between India and Pakistan and affected the two countries' crisis 
management capabilities.  Equilibrium in South Asia is the driving 
force of the United States, as well as China's competition in the 
geopolitics [of the region].  Strained Indo-Pakistani bilateral 
relations do not help to stabilize the South Asian situation, which 
not only the United States and China are not happy to see but also 
puts new variables in the balance of power in South Asia.  The 
consequence of fomenting conflict is certainly a direct impact on 
South Asian geopolitics and indirectly delays the Obama 
Administration's plan to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, 
as well as the United States' strategic deployment in the global war 
on terror starting in 2001. ..." 
 
B) "War on Terror a Long Way off" 
 
The pro-unification, English-language "China Post" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (11/29): 
 
"... [Indian Prime Minister Manmohan] Singh said correctly that the 
attackers aimed to create panic and turmoil in India, which, along 
with China, is rising rapidly as an economic power to be reckoned 
with.  It is a warning to the free world that it is so vulnerable to 
terrorism that it should pull together to battle this scourge.  The 
world needs a unified anti-terror agency to take charge of the 
mission.  India was completely in the dark prior to the surprise 
attack, much the same as America was caught off guard by 9/11.  It 
was an abject failure of intelligence. Early this week, the U.S. 
Federal Bureau of Investigation issued a warning that al-Qaida may 
attack the rapid transit system of New York during Thanksgiving. 
The alert was useful, telling terrorists that New York was 
prepared. 
 
"In this respect, George W. Bush, despite his failed presidency 
deserves credit for being able to prevent another 9/11 on U.S. 
homeland.  This said, he also deserves condemnation for 
extraordinary rendition, Gitmo, waterboarding, wire tapping, etc. 
But Bush is a 'war president' who wields extraordinary powers to 
protect his people during extraordinary times.  His successor Barack 
MILITARY STRATEGY, U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
Obama has vowed to do away with Bush's way of treating terrorists. 
It remains to be seen whether being kinder to international 
terrorists would not jeopardize American national security." 
 
¶4. The U.S. Military Strategy 
 
"U.S. Command Adjusts Its Strategy" 
 
Richard Halloran, a writer based in Hawaii, opined in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] (11/30): 
 
"The US Pacific Command, which controls US forces from the west 
coast of North America to the east coast of Africa, has fashioned a 
subtle revision in its strategy of reassuring friends and deterring 
potential enemies, notably China and North Korea. 
 
"The new strategy, approved this month by the command's leader, 
Admiral Timothy Keating, is 'based on partnership, presence and 
military readiness.'  Earlier versions were more assertive, saying 
'it is a strategy rooted in partnership and military preeminence.' 
... 
 
"Officers at the command's headquarters said the revised strategy 
was aimed at several audiences: 
 
"First, the officers of the Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force 
throughout the Asia-Pacific region, some of whom apparently believe 
that conflict with China is likely, maybe inevitable.  'The command 
wants to make sure that everyone understands that it is not 
inevitable,' one officer said. 
 
"Second, US government agencies other than the Department of 
Defense.  An undercurrent rumbling through the armed forces contends 
that the State Department, Agency for International Development, 
Treasury and other agencies are leaving too many non-military tasks, 
such as reconstruction in Iraq, to the military. 
 
"Third, allies such as Japan and Australia and partners such as 
Singapore. Another undercurrent represents fears that the US may 
reduce its forces in the Asia-Pacific region or even withdraw. The 
strategy seeks to reassure everyone that the command will be 'an 
engaged and trusted partner committed to preserving the security' of 
the region. 
 
"Fourth, known adversaries such as North Korea and potential 
opponents such as China. ... 
 
"It points to a 'maturing US-China military-to-military 
relationship' while acknowledging that 'tension remains across the 
Taiwan Strait.' 
 
"Taiwan, of course, is the most likely cause of war between China 
and the US.  Beijing contends that Taiwan is part of China and has 
threatened to use military force to conquer it.  The US insists that 
the fate of Taiwan be determined peaceably and in accord with the 
wishes of the people. ... 
 
"Even with the emphasis on partnership, the strategy concludes on an 
assertive note: In the Asia-Pacific region, the command is to be the 
'pre-eminent warfighter.'" 
 
¶5. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
"Ma's Risky Agenda" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (12/1): 
 
"... Seemingly unmoved by the continued downward spiral of the 
economy and the plunge of his own approval ratings to the mid-20 
percentile, Ma has devoted most of his energies to achieving four 
political agendas upon which Ma aims to build his re-election 
campaign. 
 
"The first pillar is the resumption of cross-strait dialogue and 
immediate opening of charter flights and Chinese tourists to Taiwan, 
which Ma aims to use to pave the way for the second and third 
pillars of his agenda, namely to secure a green light from Beijing 
for Taiwan's participation in next year's World Health Assembly and 
endorsement from the United States for his efforts to normalize 
cross-strait relations. 
 
"Ma has largely realized his first goal by riding roughshod over 
dissidence and by ignoring the troubling implications for his own 
long-term leadership spawned by the primacy of the KMT-CCP platform 
in cross-strait negotiations. 
MILITARY STRATEGY, U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
"Nevertheless, embedded in these two 'achievements' is a severe 
erosion of Taiwan's sovereignty and a depreciation of Taiwan's 
strategic value in the triangular relationship between the US, the 
PRC and Taiwan. 
 
"While the right-wing Republican administration of outgoing 
President George W. Bush has stressed a 'peaceful resolution' of 
cross-strait disputes, it has also clearly de-emphasized the key 
condition of 'assent of the Taiwan people' voiced by former 
Democratic president Bill Clinton in February 2000. 
 
"All Taiwan citizens should carefully consider whether single-minded 
pursuit of a cross-strait 'detente' that could win favor in 
Washington and Beijing but lead to an undemocratic 'final solution' 
is in our best collective interests. ..." 
 
YOUNG