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P 140713Z NOV 08
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000764 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR ISN-JENNIFER CHALMERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018 
TAGS: PARM PREL EFIN KNNP IR IZ SY SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH MFA ON IRAN, SYRIA AND IRAQ 
 
REF: A. STATE 115523 
     ¶B. STATE 115017 
     ¶C. STOCKHOLM 717 
     ¶D. STOCKHOLM 695 
 
Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Olivia Hilton for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (S) Summary: Robert Rydberg, Deputy Director-General and 
Head of the Department of Middle East and North Africa at the 
Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs (MFA), told Emboffs that: 
 
-- Sweden is fully committed to tightening any loopholes and 
implementing all UN sanctions on Iran.  He added that the USG 
view of Sweden's opposition to autonomous EU sanctions might 
be based on what other countries have said about Sweden. 
 
--Sweden has "expressed concern that EU sanctions not 
directly related to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear 
technology might be counterproductive." 
 
--Sweden's concern about levying a "cluster of additional 
sanctions" is not based on Swedish economic interests in 
Iran. 
 
--If the USG can identify and show Sweden specific instances 
of nuclear and missile-related technology transactions, 
"Sweden's skepticism would decrease." 
 
--Swedish diplomats report that the Syrians are serious about 
negotiations with the Israelis; Swedish diplomats also report 
that an additional round of discussions in Turkey is likely 
prior to the Israeli elections. 
 
--Sweden plans to open an office in Erbil in the future. 
 
End Summary. 
 
¶2. (S) On November 7, Political Counselor and Acting Economic 
Counselor shared Reftel A and B points with Robert Rydberg, 
Deputy Director-General and Head of the Department of Middle 
East and North Africa at the Swedish Ministry for Foreign 
Affairs (MFA).  Rydberg commented that Sweden welcomed an 
exchange of views with the USG on enhanced scrutiny over the 
activities of Swedish financial institutions in their 
transactions with Iran. He noted that he would need to confer 
with colleagues before he could provide the full legal and 
logistical process for passing on Financial Action Task Force 
(FATF) warnings on UNSCR 1803.  Rydberg promised to provide 
post with Sweden's official position once the consultations 
have been completed. 
 
Uncomfortable Discussing Iran? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (S) Rydberg stated Sweden is fully committed to tightening 
any loopholes and implementing all UN sanctions.  He 
commented that a group of like-minded nations is currently 
discussing the possibility of levying additional EU 
sanctions, and that the USG view of Sweden's opposition to 
additional sanctions might be based on what other countries 
have said about Sweden.  Note: From this point onward, the 
usually open and friendly Rydberg became noticeably tense, 
shifting in his seat and crossing his arms.  End Note. 
 
Not Opposed to the Will of the (Overwhelming) Majority 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶4. (S) Rydberg stated with great care and precision that it 
was "incorrect to say that Sweden is blocking or creating 
obstacles to a decision that an overwhelming majority of EU 
member states wants to make."  He said the discussions are at 
a "difficult stage" and some in the EU are still "exploring 
possible options."  Rydberg commented that Sweden has 
"expressed concern that EU sanctions not directly related to 
preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear technology might be 
counterproductive."  Sanctions that impact ordinary economic 
activities "would allow Iranian hardliners to blame the West 
for Iran's own economic shortcomings." 
 
Just Need Smarter Sticks and Carrots 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (S) Sweden is very concerned about Iran's attempts to 
acquire nuclear technology and shares the U.S. analysis that 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000764  002 OF 002 
 
 
Iran has not been forthcoming and open in its dealings with 
the West, continued Rydberg.  He noted that Sweden also 
shares the U.S. analysis that Iran is pursuing a nuclear 
weapons program and that it has made progress.  Rydberg 
opined that Iran could acquire nuclear weapons in a "short 
time frame" and that "time is therefore of the essence." 
Therefore, the West needs to strengthen both its "sticks and 
carrots" in an intelligent manner to achieve the desired 
effects and not be counterproductive to its goals.  Asked 
whether Sweden had ideas on how to strengthen these sticks 
and carrots, Rydberg demurred, saying that the EU and the 
U.S. had the lead. 
 
Trade Is Not/Not the Issue 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (S) Without being asked, Rydberg assured Emboffs that 
Sweden's concern about levying a "cluster of additional 
sanctions" is not based on Swedish economic interests in 
Iran.  "Swedish trade with Iran is going down," and Swedish 
companies are losing contracts to companies from other 
countries, including the U.S., Rydberg opined.  Note: Swedish 
trade with Iran is up by 30 percent in the first six months 
of 2008 over the corresponding period in 2007.  The Swedish 
Export Credits Guarantee board 2007 Annual Report said there 
has been a "greater demand for deliveries to the Middle East, 
above all to Iran" (Ref C). End Note. 
 
Just Unsure Sanctions Ever Work (What is "Nuclear" Anyway?) 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶7. (S) Rydberg stated that "sanctions are not a panacea and 
do not produce short-term results," adding that they can take 
years to be effective.  When Emboffs replied that in the 
short term, sanctions can effectively slow down Iran's 
nuclear and missile program, Rydberg replied that "Sweden 
would like to see an extensive definition of what constitutes 
a nuclear and missile-related technology transaction.  If the 
USG can identify and show us specific instances of these 
transactions, that would convince us and Sweden's skepticism 
would decrease." 
 
Syria-Lebanon: "A Positive Development" 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (S) Rydberg also commented that Syria's establishing 
diplomatic relations with Lebanon was "a positive 
development."  He stated that Swedish diplomats report that 
the Syrians are serious about negotiations with the Israelis; 
Swedish diplomats also report that an additional round of 
discussions in Turkey is likely prior to the Israeli 
elections.  Rydberg noted that Sweden believes the Syrians 
are waiting for the new U.S. administration before making any 
significant moves. 
 
Iraq Issues 
----------- 
 
¶9. (S) Rydberg thanked the USG for providing quick and 
comprehensive information regarding the October death of 
Mohammed Moumou, a naturalized Swedish citizen of Moroccan 
origin, in a raid on an Al-Qaeda hideout in northern Iraq. 
He also mentioned that once Sweden has opened its embassy in 
Baghdad, Sweden will open some type of "representative 
office" in Erbil. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (S) Redbird's obvious discomfort with questions involving 
additional sanctions on Iran matches the behavior of our 
other interlocutors in recent weeks.  Sweden's current trade 
with Iran, though increasing, is so low that we doubt it 
plays the determining role in thinking about sanctions.  The 
issue of principle that all sanctions need a UN imprimatur is 
also less than absolute; Sweden supports EU autonomous 
sanctions when it wants to, such as on Burma.  At this point, 
and absent any other explanation, Sweden's obstinance on Iran 
seems best explained by the assertion by Urban Ahlin, Vice 
Chairman of the Parliamentary Foreign Committee that Foreign 
Minister Bildt may be trying to "solve Iran" (Ref D). 
WOOD