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PP RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 040530Z NOV 08
FM AMCONSUL SHENYANG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8523
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC 0152
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA J2 SEOUL KOR
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC 0108
RUCGEVC/JOINT STAFF WASHDC 0078
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 0127
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0566

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHENYANG 000151 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/K, EAP/CM, INR, PRM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS AFTER KOREAN UNIFICATION 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF EAGR KN KS CH
SUBJECT: PRC-DPRK: NORTH KOREAN DIPLOMATS; FOOD SECURITY; 
OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT IN SINUIJU; BORDER-CROSSERS 
 
REF: SHENYANG 123 
 
Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN B. WICKMAN. 
REASONS: 1.4(b)/(d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: North Korean diplomats in northeast China 
did not, contrary to rumor, receive orders from Pyongyang 
restricting their travel in October, and trade officials 
recently recalled to Sinuiju reported no changes given them 
in policy direction, say contacts.  PRC security posture 
appears little changed in Dandong, where customs and 
border-patrol officials told contacts they have seen no 
major change in PRC-DPRK interchange there.  North Korea's 
top diplomat in Shenyang estimates this year's harvest will 
reach four million metric tons, said one contact; PRC Korea 
experts dispute UN agencies' predictions of dire DPRK food 
shortfalls this year.  North Korea recently canceled its 
participation in a PRC-DPRK border-trade expo slated for 
late October.  A Dandong trading firm is involved in 
developing North Korea's Weihua Island, off the coast of 
Sinuiju.  Farther north in Jilin Province, China's 
targeting of North Korean border-crossers reportedly 
continues in Yanbian, where recent fines for assisting 
North Koreans exceed USD 700.  Contacts there note some 
mixed border-crosser/Chinese couples secured residence 
permits for their children for fees of USD 75-150, though 
details are unclear.  END SUMMARY. 
 
NORTH KOREAN OFFICIALS IN NORTHEAST CHINA, SINUIJU 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2. (C) North Korean diplomats in northeast China did not, 
contrary to press rumors last month, receive orders from 
Pyongyang restricting travel pending an "important 
announcement," according to PRC contacts regularly in 
contact with North Korean diplomats and officials.  Inbound 
delegations of North Korean officials into Shenyang and 
Dalian for trade purposes continued as normal throughout 
the period, a Shenyang-based, PRC-DPRK trade facilitator 
told Poloff October 23.  He claimed North Korean diplomats 
at the DPRK Consulate in Shenyang told him they had 
received no orders to stay for the "important announcement" 
speculated about in the press.  LU Chao (PROTECT), a North 
Korea expert at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences 
(LASS) who regularly meets with North Korean diplomats in 
Shenyang, told Poloff earlier the same day that none of his 
North Korean contacts had been subject to any travel 
restrictions.  The businessman reported, however, that the 
highest-level North Korean trade officials stationed in 
Shenyang (for business purposes) were recalled to Sinuiju 
on October 9 in advance of the following day's anniversary 
of the founding of the Korean Worker's Party.  The North 
Koreans subsequently told our contact that while in 
Sinuiju, they were given no news of any leadership changes, 
nor did higher-ups notify them of any new policy direction 
("fangzhen") in their day-to-day work in China. 
 
PRC SECURITY POSTURE NEAR DANDONG 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Recent firsthand observation, along with comments by 
PRC officials, suggest no outward change in the security 
posture of People's Armed Police (PAP) or People's 
Liberation Army (PLA) personnel in the Dandong area, 
contrary to Japanese tabloid reporting in late October. 
During an October 27-28 visit to Dandong, Hushan and 
Donggang/Qianyang, Poloff observed few noticeable changes. 
Near Qianyang township, by Donggang--about 50 kilometers 
south of Dandong--Poloff on October 28 observed one patrol 
vehicle (marked as such) but little else out of the 
ordinary.  Border residents Poloff encountered in Hushan 
and Dandong on October 27 recalled no noticeable security 
changes in recent weeks.  Lu Chao echoed this observation 
on October 23, citing recent conversations with Dandong 
officials and security personnel.  During a research trip 
to Dandong earlier in the month, Dandong customs officials 
told Lu there were no major changes in PRC-DPRK border 
trade through Dandong's land and sea ports in recent weeks. 
Border Defense likewise reported no major changes in terms 
of security posture, patrols or cross-border tensions, 
according to Lu. 
 
 
SHENYANG 00000151  002 OF 003 
 
 
NORTH KOREANS, CHINESE ON THE DPRK'S HARVEST 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) PRC specialists in northeast China continue to 
dispute United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and Food 
and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates of significant 
North Korean agricultural shortfalls this year, citing DPRK 
officials and their own research.  North Korean grain 
harvests this year have been better than the preceding 
year, in part because of better weather and open-market 
fertilizer purchases--however limited--from China and other 
countries, according to Lu Chao.  But Lu, who said he 
recently briefed officials in Beijing and Liaoning Province 
on North Korean security and leadership issues, told Poloff 
October 23 that grain shortages are not as dire as agencies 
like the WFP claim.  His comments echo those we have been 
hearing from a number of other Chinese Korea specialists. 
Most authoritative, perhaps, are those of the Jilin Academy 
of Social Science's ZHANG Feng (PROTECT), a Korea 
specialist who has been engaged in a classified assessment 
of North Korean food security over the past year for the 
Jilin government.  In Changchun as early as September 16, 
she told Poloff she disputed WFP/FAO claims based on the 
results of this year's spring harvest and her predictions 
for the main harvest in October/November.  She declined to 
elaborate. 
 
¶5. (C) During a recent meeting with North Korean Consul 
General RI Gi Bom, Ri claimed this year's harvests have 
been decent, offering his "personal estimate" that total 
output would reach roughly four million metric tons, 
recalled Lu Chao of LASS.  Ri told Lu that he had not, 
however, yet received any "official statistics."  (NOTE: 
Ri's positive appraisal of this year's harvest echoes 
remarks we have heard recently from other Shenyang-based 
North Korean diplomats, at times unsolicited; see, for 
instance, reftel.)  Separately, a Yanbian-based ethnic 
Korean Chinese who visited Chongjin for humanitarian 
purposes in September/October 2008 told our ethnic Korean 
Chinese Pol/Econ LES Assistant October 15 that the area's 
harvest appeared much better than last year. 
 
NORTH KOREANS POSTPONE PRC-DPRK TRADE FAIR 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) A PRC-DPRK border-trade exposition billed as the 
largest such event "since the founding" of the PRC and DPRK 
was abruptly canceled by the North Korean side days before 
the event was to take place, according to one of the 
event's organizers.  The fall 2008 PRC-DPRK Border Economic 
and Technological Cooperation Expo was originally slated to 
take place in Donggang--south of Dandong--October 28-31. 
Sponsors were the Donggang government and the Dandong 
Weihuadao Investment Group, a private PRC-DPRK trade 
facilitator.  The Dandong Weihuadao Investment Group's XU 
Jun (PROTECT) told us October 28 that the event fell 
through "late" during the week of October 19-25 when North 
Korean diplomats at the DPRK Consulate--his group's North 
Korean interlocutor--told him North Korean clearances did 
not materialize.  Xu claimed roughly 200-300 firms had 
signed on as exhibitors, of which "20 to 25" were North 
Korean.  (NOTE: During a brief visit on October 28 to the 
scheduled site of the expo, we found a mostly empty 
warehouse in poor condition likely incapable of 
accommodating an expo of such size; we suspect claims of 
the event's scale were exaggerated. END NOTE.)  Xu added 
that North Korean diplomats would visit later that same day 
to discuss rescheduling the event, which he speculated 
would be moved to early 2009. 
 
SINUIJU OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT PLANS 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) The Dandong Weihuadao Investment group is also 
currently involved in developing North Korea's Weihua 
Island, off the coast of Sinuiju, said Xu.  In early 2006, 
Dandong Weihuadao apparently partnered with the North Korea 
Waterway Trading Company (Chaoxian Shuidao Maoyi 
Zonghuishe) to jointly develop Weihua Island and the nearby 
Xin Island, according to Xu and materials he passed us. 
Much of the yet-to-be-begun development plans appear 
overambitious (e.g., meeting centers, tourist 
 
SHENYANG 00000151  003 OF 003 
 
 
accommodations).  Other elements, like a PRC-DPRK 
"friendship" wholesale market, have progressed more, though 
current status remains unclear.  The Group appears well- 
connected in the DPRK.  Its owner is the son of Chinese who 
fought with Kim Il Sung against the Japanese in northeast 
China; he maintains a "close relationship" with North 
Korea's central leadership because of this, according to 
Xu.  Company materials claim the Group repaved the North 
Korean half of the PRC-DPRK Friendship Bridge--the trade 
conduit between Dandong and Sinuiju--in August 2007 as an 
"aid" project. 
 
NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS: FINES, ASSISTANCE, OFFSPRING 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Farther north along the PRC-DPRK border in Jilin 
Province, China's targeting of North Korean border-crossers 
and those assisting them reportedly continues in the 
Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture.  A Yanji-based ethnic 
Korean Chinese man was recently fined RMB 5000 (USD 735) 
after being caught by police supporting North Koreans 
illegally in Yanbian, he told our ethnic Korean Pol/Econ 
LES Assistant during an October 14-17 visit to Yanbian. 
The man, who has been working together with networks of 
foreign missionaries, claimed police in Yanbian are 
offering rewards of RMB 2000-3000 (USD 300-440) for turning 
in North Koreans but did not specify whether this varied by 
location.  A PAP Border Defense guard who shared a cab with 
POL/ECON Assistant from Sanhe to Yanji October 16 mentioned 
that the quality of border defense has grown in recent 
years.  Two or three years ago, conditions were "poor," he 
claimed; the guard recalled an incident in which a fellow 
guard died in an altercation with North Korean soldiers who 
had crossed into Yanbian. 
 
¶9. (C) South of Yanji in Chongshan (across from Samjang-ri, 
near Musan), a pastor at a small ethnic Korean protestant 
congregation noted October 15 that few North Korean border- 
crossers have arrived at his church recently because 
conditions are unsafe for them.  He explained that most 
local Chinese offering them assistance are members of his 
congregation acting privately, often with the assistance of 
foreigners.  Echoing remarks of other Korean-Chinese 
contacts involved in such work, the pastor identified 
Korean-Americans, Korean-Australians and South Koreans as 
the predominant groups of foreigners assisting North Korean 
border-crossers in Yanbian at present. 
 
¶10. (C) Yanbian contacts continue to report that certain 
mixed couples (i.e., border-crosser North Korean 
females/Chinese males) have been able to secure residence 
permits, or "hukou," that allow their children access to 
critical social services like education.  Practice appears 
to vary throughout Yanbian and many details remain unclear, 
but more than a few have been able to register with police 
and receive a hukou according to one Yanji-based ethnic 
Korean NGO worker who, along with her pastor-husband, has 
been helping border-crossers there for years.  Those she 
was familiar with had paid police between RMB 500-1000 (USD 
75-150), though she did not specify whether these fees were 
offered as bribes.  Ordinarily, she claimed, the fee for a 
local Chinese would be RMB 20 (USD 3).  The ethnic Korean 
man recently fined for assisting border-crossers, however, 
claimed the number is much smaller.  Both contacts were 
unclear on local variations and total numbers. 
SWICKMAN