R 171406Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY OUAGADOUGOU
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4353
INFO ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS OUAGADOUGOU 001024 
 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W AND AF/EPS 
DAKAR ALSO FOR FAS, USAID 
ACCRA ALSO FOR USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON SENV SOCI PGOV UV
SUBJECT: BURKINA FASO: SIGNFICANT INCREASES IN CEREAL PRODUCTION 
FORECAST FOR 2008 
 
REF: A) OUAGADOUGOU 202 B) OUAGADOUGOU 439 C) OUAGADOUGOU 679 
 
¶1. SUMMARY: A joint assessment conducted in October 2008 predicted 
that cereal production in Burkina Faso would reach a record 
4,157,714 metric tons this year. This figure represents a 34.6 
percent increase from the previous year's production.  Analysts 
credit this success to a combination of good weather conditions, 
coupled with increased donor and GOBF financial assistance to the 
agricultural sector. END SUMMARY 
 
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FORECASTED PRODUCTION 
--------------------- 
 
¶2. A joint assessment by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture 
Organization (FAO), the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought 
Control in the Sahel (CILSS), the United States Agency for 
International Development's (USAID) Famine Early Warning System 
Network (FEWSNET) and the Government of Burkina Faso (GOBF) 
conducted from October 15-22 estimated 2008 cereal production at 
4,157,714 metric tons, only 1.74 percent short of its original goal 
of 4,231,479 metric tons.  In 2008, cereal production increased 34.6 
percent from the 2007-08 agricultural season and was 25.11 percent 
higher than the average cereal production for the last five years. 
This increase resulted from improved production of all cereal types 
including: millet: 1,198,629 metric tons (+24.1 percent); maize: 
803,921 metric tons (+50.6 percent); rice: 180,267 metric tons 
(+161.6 percent); fonio: 24,833 metric tons (+93.4 percent) and 
sorghum: 1,950,064 metric tons (+29.4 percent). 
 
¶3. Following riots and demonstrations throughout the country in 
early 2008 (Ouagadougou 439), the Ministry of Agriculture, 
Hydraulics and Fisheries embarked upon an ambitious program to 
mitigate the effects of insufficient local production and to address 
the rising price of agricultural commodities.  Designed during the 
Ministry's annual programming meeting on May 2-3, this program 
projected overall cereal production of 4,231,479 metric tons, 
including 247,484 metric tons of rice. 
 
¶4. Because of the favorable 2008 harvest, prices of most cereals are 
expected to fall in the coming months. In October, an International 
Monetary Fund (IMF) assessment of Burkina Faso's economic 
performance predicted that a good harvest would lower the country's 
inflation rate from 14.1 percent in August to an annual average of 
9.5 percent by the end of 2008. (Ouagadougou 202) 
 
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DETERMINANT FACTORS IN ACHIEVING RECORD PRODUCTION 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶5. The joint mission cited regular well-distributed rainfall 
throughout the rainy season as a key determinant in the country's 
successful cereal production during the 2008-09 season.  According 
to the study, this year's rainfall was satisfactory compared to the 
previous year and above normal for the time period 1971 to 2000. 
 
¶6. The second key reason for this year's successful harvest was the 
unprecedented levels of agricultural assistance given to local 
farmers by the GOBF and donor organizations.  The local publication, 
"Fasozine," reported that Prime Minister Tertius Zongo announced 
during a June 10 press conference, that "almost 16 billion CFA 
francs (USD 32 million) would be mobilized by the GOBF to provide 
cereal producers with technical support, improved seeds, 
fertilizers, and pesticides." Zongo added that "this assistance when 
combined with a subsidy of 6.5 billion CFA francs (13 million US 
dollars) to cotton producers brought the GOBF's total financial 
assistance to the agricultural sector to 22.5 billion CFA francs 
(USD 45 million) during the 2008-09 season." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Despite a Good Harvest Shortfalls Are Still Expected 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶7. Despite an excellent cereal harvest, significant rice shortfalls 
are still expected. The initial GOBF Food Security and Nutritional 
Emergency Plan for the 2008-09 agricultural season had originally 
predicted that it would increase local rice production to cover 56 
percent of the nation's needs.  Although the projected rice 
production of 180,267 metric tons represents significant growth, the 
country will still fall short of its goal of 247,484 metric tons 
(-27.16 percent). 
 
¶8. Theoretically, this year's estimated harvest should meet the 
country's overall cereal demand; however, based upon an annual 
standard consumption level of 190 kilograms of cereal per person, 
the study estimated a cereals shortfall of 2,793,778 metric tons. 
Despite good harvests, vulnerable households in departments in 
several regions continue to experience food difficulties due to high 
cereal prices.  According to the study, this discrepancy exists 
because of regional disparities, particularly in the Sahel and 
Northern regions.  During 2008, two factors affected food security 
in these areas; insufficient rainfall and an influx of Tuareg 
refugees (Ouagadougou 679) fleeing conflicts in neighboring Mali and 
Niger. 
 
¶9. In addition, among the country's 12 rainfall monitoring stations, 
eight registered a surplus compared to rainfall experienced in 
1971-2000 and 2007. Despite higher levels of precipitation, not all 
regions received sufficient amounts of rainfall; and some areas 
including Dori, Ouahigouya, Dedougou, and Po received less than in 
¶2007.  During the first ten days of September, rainfall declined to 
almost zero in the Sahel region.  Other areas, including the 
Northern, and Center-West regions of the country, suffered from a 
lack of rainfall during the critical end-of-season growth phase. 
The joint mission report voiced concern that this could "adversely 
impact crop yields" in these areas. 
 
¶10. During the October 10 midterm review of the Poverty Reduction 
Strategy Paper (PRSP), Seydou Ouedraogo, a representative from 
Burkina Faso's Farmers Confederation (CPF), argued that government 
assistance would have been more effective if it had been better 
planned.  Ouedraogo pointed out that in several areas, farmers 
received their improved seeds after the optimal sowing date and 
fertilizer never reached some localities due to the poor condition 
of the roads during the rainy season. He insisted that in the 
future, the GOBF should start its assistance programs earlier and 
manage the process more efficiently if it truly wants to boost the 
nation's agricultural production. 
 
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MISSION REMCOMMENDATIONS 
------------------------ 
 
¶11. After announcing the results of its study, the Joint Mission 
made recommendations to leverage Burkina Faso's current cereal 
production record and contribute to both short and long-term food 
security. Short-term recommendations included: i) use water 
collected in various dams to begin dry season cultivation in the 
Sahel and Northern regions in the first ten-days of November; ii) 
closely monitor vulnerable groups in the four regions which are 
likely to be in deficit: Central-Western, Central-Northern, Sahel 
and North; iii) facilitate the free movement of goods and people 
within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to 
help absorb surplus production by non-surplus countries; and iv) 
strengthen regional agricultural processing capacities. 
 
¶12. In the long run, the mission recommended: i) develop export 
programs that could provide substantial revenues to local producers 
while simultaneously contributing to international prices; ii) 
facilitate trade within the country to redistribute surpluses from 
high production areas to traditionally deficit areas or areas 
occasionally affected by bad weather conditions; and iii) enhance 
the storage capacities of producers, traders, farmers' organizations 
and regional and national governments. 
 
¶13. COMMENT: In the four regions of the country likely to be in 
cereal deficit, the U.S. Government has been implementing 
agricultural and food security programs through Partner Volunteer 
Organizations (PVO) AFRICARE and Catholic Relief Services (CRS). 
AFRICARE implements its activities in the Northern region whereas 
CRS intervenes in the Central-Northern. These activities are 
supported by the United States Agency for International 
Development's (USAID) Food for Peace Program. 
 
JACKSON