VZCZCXRO2688
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHYG
DE RUEHMZ #0358 3091256
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 041256Z NOV 08
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4550
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MUNICH 000358 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT:  GERMANY/BAVARIA: THE BAVARIAN SPD APPEARS OBLIVIOUS TO 
THEIR OWN DEFEAT 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Bavarian and national Social Democratic Party's (SPD) 
open gloating over the blow to the Christian Social Union (CSU) in 
the recent Bavarian elections belied their own sorry state of 
affairs: the SPD had its worst showing there since WWII.  With such 
a weak showing in that state -- and the problems it now faces in 
Hesse (see septel) -- there is little to indicate that the SPD's 
September leadership change has yet benefited the party as it gears 
up for Presidential, European Parliament, and Bundestag elections in 
¶2009.  Deep-felt voter frustrations about Bavarian CSU politics 
should have been water on the mill of the major opposition party 
here, but instead, the SPD came in with just 18.6 percent of the 
vote, winning just a few percentage points more than the Greens and 
the Independents.  One cannot even attribute the SPD's dried up 
support to defections in favor of the Left Party; unlike in other 
German states, the Left Party did not make it into the Bavarian 
parliament. 
 
¶2. (SBU) News analysis and continued party hand-wringing after the 
disastrous CSU showing have diverted attention from the fact that 
the opposition leader in Bavaria, the SPD, failed to profit from the 
CSU's historic decline.  While on election eve the faces of CSU 
leaders showed all shades of despair and consternation, local SPD 
leaders were beaming with malicious joy.  Political observers in 
Bavaria are now convinced that the SPD just does not get it.  On 
October 28, the day when the CSU and Free Democratic Party (FDP) 
were trumpeting their successful coalition negotiations, political 
observers in Munich rubbed their eyes in disbelief when Bavarian SPD 
chairman Ludwig Stiegler appeared on TV to analyze the current CSU 
"plight."  And what about analysis of how the SPD came out with this 
all-time low?  CSU leaders Beckstein and Huber fell on their swords 
in defeat, but no SPD politician has resigned over their bad 
showing.  In fact, the SPD's Landtag caucus leader Franz Maget has 
been confirmed in his office with 92 percent of the vote, and the 
Landtag caucus renominated Peter Paul Gantzer, who will turn 70 in 
November, deputy Landtag President.  This is not a sign that the 
party sees the need for change at the top. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) What's more, undercutting its own few successes seems to 
be vintage SPD procedure in Bavaria.  It is a mystery why 49-year 
old Axel Berg from Munich, the only SPD Bundestag deputy to directly 
win a constituency in Bavaria in 2005, was not afforded a safe slot 
when the SPD put its party list together for the 2009 Bundestag 
election. 
 
¶4.  (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
¶5.  (U) Follow Munich reporting at 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. 
 
NELSON