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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002393 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2018 
TAGS: BL ECON ENVR KDEM PGOV PREL PHUM PINR
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: PARTIES GEAR UP FOR 2009 ELECTIONS 
 
REF: LA PAZ 2370 
 
Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Bolivian presidential elections are expected 
to take place in December 2009 and "only" 15 parties are 
registered on the national level.  Given that it takes a 
minimum of eight months to register a political party, 
unaffiliated candidates and parties with lapsed credentials 
have recognized there is not much time to spare, and are 
actively considering whether to make the effort to form new 
parties or update eligibility.  As elections draw nearer, 
this situation is causing some parties to gear up to meet the 
registration deadline, while others are instead making new 
alliances (in order to take advantage of their partner 
party's eligibility).  Former President Tuto Quiroga's 
opposition-leading PODEMOS party has seen its registration 
lapse, and he will likely break a prior partnership with the 
Century 21 party to ally with the Christian Democratic Party 
(PDC).  Former Vice-President Victor Hugo Cardenas, who is 
being mentioned again in political circles as a possible 
candidate for either president or vice-president, is the 
titular head of the Revolutionary Liberation Movement Tupac 
Katari party, but his party has also lost its eligibility, 
and Cardenas is now seen as a free agent.  With parties from 
both sides of the political spectrum looking to form a 
centrist coalition to defeat President Morales, we may see 
new alliances form and leadership shifts occur in the coming 
months.  End summary. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - 
A Paucity of Parties 
- - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (C) Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in 
December 2009 if the new constitution passes (as expected) in 
January, and "only" 15 parties have maintained their 
national-level eligibility, according to a report by the 
National Electoral Court (CNE).  While the Bolivian national 
political scene usually enjoys a very large number of 
parties, in the last 20 years, 36 parties have lost their 
eligibility, leaving only the current 15.  According to 
leading daily La Razon, in 2007, fifteen new parties 
initiated applications to receive eligibility, but of these 
only three are considered active.  These three include the 
Democratic Force (FD) party, led by Adriana Gil, a former 
ally of Morales in Santa Cruz who now sees him as a 
"dictator" and his party as riddled with corruption; the 
Plurinational Alliance of West and East, led by Policarpio 
Castaneta; and the Front for Victory, led by Eliseo Rodriguez. 
 
¶3. (C) Former President Tuto Quiroga's opposition-leading 
PODEMOS party has seen its registration lapse, and he will 
likely break a prior partnership with the Century 21 party to 
ally instead with the Christian Democratic Party (PDC). 
Although it leads the national-level opposition and has the 
most seats in the Senate, PODEMOS is widely seen as 
responsible for having failed to slow Evo's Morales 
Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party  and for having proposed 
a national recall referendum on the Presidency, 
Vice-Presidency, and regional Prefectures, which ultimately 
only strengthened Evo (Note: he obtained 67 percent support 
and the opposition lost two key prefectures - La Paz and 
Cochabamba. End note.).  PODEMOS' slide is seen by some as 
having opened a political vacuum, either for a centrist 
coalition or for parties representing the more radical civic 
committees in the eastern, "Media Luna" part of the country. 
 
- - - - - - - - - 
Eligible Parties 
- - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (U) The fifteen currently eligible parties include the 
following: President Morales' Movement Toward Socialism 
party, or MAS; the Century 21 party, led by Marcelo Bravo 
Porcel (which is recognized primarily for its alliance with 
opposition leaders PODEMOS); the National Unity Front, or UN, 
led by Samuel Doria Medina; the National Revolutionary 
Movement party, or MNR, which is the oldest party but 
currently without a leader; the Social Alliance party, or AS, 
led by Rene Joaquino Cabrera; the Plan for Bolivian Progress 
party, or PPB, led by Jose Luis Paredes (aka Pepe Lucho); the 
Movement Without Fear party, or MSM, led by Juan del Granado; 
the United Civic Solidarity party, or UCS, led by Jhonny 
Fernandez; and the Movement of United Social Patriotism, or 
MUSPA, led by Juan Gabriel Bautista. 
 
¶5. (U) Other parties include the National Democratic Action 
party, the Left Revolutionary Front, the Christian Democratic 
Party, the Bolivian Social Democrats, the Villages for 
Liberty and Sovereignty party, and the National Concert 
party. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - 
Wheeling and Dealing 
- - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (C) UN Party leader Samuel Doria Medina has proposed to 
create a "United Front of the Left" to challenge President 
Evo Morales in the expected December 2009 elections (reftel). 
 Such a "United Front," if it occurred, could help bring in 
currently unaffiliated politicians.  Former President Carlos 
Mesa has reportedly been in conversations with Doria Medina 
regarding a potential spot under the "United Front" banner. 
(Note: As this effort is being spearheaded by Doria Medina, 
for eligibility purposes the United Front presumably would 
ally with the UN.  End note.) 
 
¶7. (C) Similarly, former Vice-President Victor Hugo Cardenas 
is also being mentioned in political circles as a possible 
candidate for either president or vice-president.  Cardenas 
was the head of the Revolutionary Liberation Movement Tupac 
Katari party, but his party has lost its eligibility, and 
Cardenas is now seen as a free agent. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
Eligibility Requirements 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8. (U) The process to register a national-level party takes 
approximately eight to nine months.  A minimum of 57,476 
signatures must be obtained within a period of six months, 
and the signatures are then verified by the CNE.  A party's 
eligibility may be revoked for one of five reasons: first, if 
a party declares itself defunct; second, if a party does not 
obtain more than three percent of the total votes cast in the 
last election in which they participated; third, if a party 
does not participate in two consecutive elections; fourth, if 
a party participates in a coup d'etat or other seditious 
acts; or last, if a party does not update its registration of 
enrolled supporters according to CNE rules. 
URS