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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001162 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: TALKS WITH ARMED GROUPS IN TERAI UNLIKELY 
TO SUCCEED 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell.  Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) As of November 3, the Government of Nepal (GON) has 
made limited progress on peace negotiations between a 
three-member team of cabinet ministers and a collection of 
armed groups from the Terai.  Prospects for a successful 
outcome are unpromising.  The armed groups have struggled to 
form an alliance and select leadership; many of the groups 
are unwilling to consent to negotiations.  Each armed group 
willing to participate has set forward a series of demands -- 
many unrealistic -- as preconditions to talks.  In addition 
to the Terai groups being unable to reach consensus or 
unwilling to budge on demands, violence remains a major 
obstacle. 
 
GON Invites Armed Groups for Talks 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) On October 3, the Maoist-led Government of Nepal 
(GON) for the first time formed a three-member team of 
cabinet ministers to address grievances -- including a demand 
for an autonomous Madhes state -- with armed groups from the 
Terai.  Peace and Reconstruction Minister Janardan Sharma of 
the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist coordinates the GON 
team, which also consists of two Madhesi ministers:  Local 
Development Minister Ram Chandra Jha of the Communist Party 
of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) and Education 
Minister Renu Yadav of the Madhesi People's Rights Forum 
(MPRF).  The Peace and Reconstruction Minister in early 
October began hosting informal talks with members of various 
groups in the Terai and eastern hills in order to devise a 
plan for official talks.  The Local Development Minister told 
the Ambassador on October 27 that the GON has invited nine 
groups to talks, and the talks would begin "within 15 to 20 
days" (i.e., during the second week of November).  The groups 
have accepted the invitation with the caveat that the GON 
meets their preconditions.  (Note:  Sharma declined to 
explain how his team selected nine out of a plethora of 
groups -- by some estimates, there are upwards of 40 armed 
organizations operating in the Terai.  End note.) 
 
Prospects Unpromising:  A Question of Leadership 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶3.  (C) Few observers believe that negotiations will yield 
substantial, positive results.  The inability of the groups 
to organize among themselves does not bode well for consensus 
with the GON.  During the first week of October, 14 armed 
groups from the Terai met in Bihar, India to discuss an 
alliance.  Nepalese media reported that the groups wanted to 
unite under one umbrella organization, but disagreements over 
leadership forced them to settle on forging a working unity. 
Prashant Jha, a prominent journalist with expertise on 
Madhesi issues, told Emboffs on October 22 that the Terai 
groups are only going through the motions to appear willing 
to compromise with the GON, and that the groups that have 
agreed to the talks have minimal influence in the Terai. 
This mirrors observations from contractors for USAID's Office 
of Transition Initiative (OTI) who are based in the eastern 
Terai, who told Emboffs the same day that the GON would have 
a challenging task in selecting members with clout from armed 
groups that matter. 
 
A Question of Compromise 
------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (C) Further complicating matters, Home Minister Bam Dev 
Gautam announced during a speech in Bhairahawa on October 21 
that the GON would use force if the armed groups were to 
ignore the call for dialogue.  All of the armed groups have 
expressed dissatisfaction with the "threatening tone" of the 
GON, according to OTI sources.  Hiramani Ghimire, a 
governance adviser with the British Department for 
International Development (DFID), told Emboffs on October 27 
 
KATHMANDU 00001162  002 OF 002 
 
 
that, contrary to the Peace and Reconstruction Minister's 
public claims, initial overtures for the talks have been 
poor.  The DFID adviser said that insiders (further 
unspecified) had informed him that the talks were heading 
toward failure, largely because armed groups even willing to 
participate are making too many unrealistic demands. 
 
Unrealistic Demands 
------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Each of the Terai groups has insisted upon several 
demands as a precondition for talks.  The Jwala Singh faction 
of the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM) has demanded 
that the GON withdraw "false charges" against its cadres, 
declare a unilateral ceasefire, make adequate security 
arrangements for members of the JTMM's negotiation team, and 
withdraw all police presence from Terai villages within 30 
days.  The Rajan Mukti faction of the JTMM has demanded that 
the GON withdraw all court cases against its cadres and 
release those currently in jail.  The Terai Samyukta 
Janakranti Party set forth a list of nine demands, including 
the declaration of martyrs and compensation to the families 
of cadres killed during the Madhesi agitation. 
 
Violence a Major Obstacle 
------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Another major obstacle to successful negotiations is 
the armed groups' refusal to halt violence.  Daily reports of 
alleged murders, abductions and extortion continue unabated. 
On October 22, a bombing at the land reform office in the 
central Terai district of Dhanusa injured over a dozen 
people.  Terai Rastriya Mukti Sena and the Terai Army both 
claimed responsibility for the incident.  Terai-based OTI 
contractors told Emboffs that this bombing was particularly 
disturbing because it displayed a certain level of 
sophistication -- a mock fight distracted police in the 
vicinity before the bomb exploded -- and, employing a 
cylinder bomb filled with shrapnel, was a definite attempt to 
injure people rather than simply create commotion.  Police 
remain ineffective in either preventing or responding to 
incidents. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Post is not optimistic that peace negotiations -- 
should they ever get off the ground -- will have a positive 
outcome at this time.  The armed groups' demands appear to be 
a tactic to force a stalemate.  Nevertheless, we will 
continue to press our contacts, including those within the 
legitimate, Madhesi political parties, particularly the MPRF, 
to use their influence with the armed groups.  In our views, 
communication between the GON and the armed groups is 
preferable to no contact at all. 
POWELL