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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ISTANBUL 000558 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EU SC TU
SUBJECT: AKP VICE CHAIR DISCUSSES TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY 
SUCCESSES AND GOALS 
 
Classified By: Consul Sharon A. Wiener for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  In a recent discussion with diplomats and 
media representatives, Egemen Bagis, who is Turkish ruling AK 
Party (AKP) Vice Chairman in charge of Foreign Affairs, MP 
for Istanbul, and a confidant to Prime Minister Erdogan, 
praised the AKP's redirection of Turkey's foreign policies, 
offered insights into the ongoing Kurdish problem, and 
(predictably) predicted enhanced success for the AKP in next 
Spring's municipal elections.  End summary. 
 
------------ 
Introduction 
------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) On October 25, the Journalists and Writers Foundation 
(of which controversial Turkish imam Fethullah Gulen is 
"honorary president") sponsored a discussion titled "The 
Caucasus, Central Asia and Turkish Foreign Policy."  The 
speaker was Egemen Bagis, who is AKP Vice Chairman in Charge 
of Foreign Affairs, MP for Istanbul, and confidant to Prime 
Minister Erdogan.  Approximately ten persons attended, mostly 
foreign diplomats and representatives of international media 
organizations.   The main points made by Bagis in a 
discussion that strayed far beyond the nominal subject of the 
talk are set forth below. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
The Success of the AKP's Policy of Strategic Depth 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶3.  (U) Bagis claimed the AKP's policy of "strategic depth" 
was inspired by President Clinton's speech to Parliament in 
1999, in which Clinton said the choices to be made by Turkey 
in the near future would influence events for 100 years. 
Bagis further claimed Turkey's foreign policy is the natural 
outcome of its ongoing democratization process: As Turkey 
becomes more democratic, its government no longer needs to 
portray its neighbors as enemies and now needs them as 
friends and trading partners.  He said Turkey's outreach to 
the East would not compromise its relations with the West, 
and Turkey's added value in the world of diplomacy was its 
"multi-geographnicity" ) since Turkey is a "bridge" between 
East and West, it is natural Turkish diplomacy emphasizes 
that aspect of the country. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Bagis summarized the AKP's foreign policy successes 
with its neighbors as follows: 
 
      - Greece:  According to Bagis, prior to the AKP coming 
to power, Greece and Turkey were "on the brink of war." 
(NOTE: A neat historical sleight-of-hand, but untrue: Greece 
FM Papandreou and Turkish FM Cen were well-embarked on their 
"seismic diplomacy" in 2000; the AKP came to power in 2002. 
END NOTE.)  Since that time, Turkey has signed two important 
agreements with Greece, has substantially increased Greek 
FDI, has built a pipeline through Greece and has expanded air 
corridors.  However, to Bagis the most significant symbol of 
the improved relations between the two countries is the fact 
that Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis attended the wedding of 
Erdogan's daughter.  Bagis characterized Cyprus as the main 
remaining problem and said what is now needed is more 
dialogue and trust, which he is confident will eventually 
come about. 
 
      - Russia: Prior to the AKP coming to power, no leader 
of Russia had ever visited Turkey.  Since that time, Putin 
has visited twice, and trade between the two countries now 
exceeds USD 15 billion. 
 
      - Syria: Prior to the AKP coming to power, Turkey had 
to stage 300,000 troops on the Syrian border and threaten war 
to get Syria to expel Ocalan.  Since that time, Syria has 
been cooperating with Turkey against PKK terrorism. 
 
      - Iraq: Prior to the AKP coming to power, Turkey had 
almost no trade with Iraq.  Since that time, it is doing USD 
2 billion in trade.  Bagis also claimed Turkey has suffered 
the second highest number of casualties in Iraq (all 
civilian).  Bagis said Turkey is determined to "put out the 
fire" in Iraq and establish a regular relationship with that 
country. 
 
      - Bulgaria: Bagis noted there are now four ethnic Turks 
in the Bulgarian Parliament, and "hundreds" of buses take 
people from Turkey to vote in Bulgarian elections. 
 
      - Armenia: Bagis said that after the AKP came to power 
it made a number of approaches to Armenia -- including 
allowing flights from Yerevan to Istanbul, permitting the 
renovation of an Armenian church in Akdamar, and suggesting 
the establishment of a committee of experts to look into the 
events of 1915.  These initiatives were met, said Bagis, with 
silence for two years, followed by a provocation shortly 
after Armenian elections (COMMENT: held in February 2008), 
when a Turkish flag was burned (COMMENT: in Yerevan, April 
2008).  Nonetheless, Gul "courageously" accepted the 
invitation of Armenian president Sargsyan to attend a soccer 
match.  Bagis is hopeful further acts of rapprochement will 
follow. 
 
      - Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform: Bagis 
said all parties involved have responded "positively" and 
while the Platform would begin as a talking shop, how it 
transforms itself would depend on the desires of the member 
countries. 
 
------------ 
EU Accession 
------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Bagis predicted Turkey will complete negotiations, 
but it will take more than four years to do so.  Afterwards, 
Turkey and Europe will both be "very different." There were 
three possible outcomes of the negotiations: First, the 
Bulgarian/Romanian model, in which Turkey joins despite 
"shortcomings"; second, the British model, in which Turkey 
joins only after being vetoed several times (as the UK had 
been, by France); and third, the Norwegian model, in which 
Turkey decides in favor of a "special relationship" rather 
than full membership.  Bagis called the accession reforms an 
"exercise and diet program," in which the process is more 
important than the end product.  He also noted Turkey is 
"unique" among EU aspirants, in that it is already a full 
member of the Customs Union, and it is also a member of the 
Organization of the Islamic Conference. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Bagis was asked how the AKP could achieve all of 
the reforms sought, when certain reforms (e.g., repeal of the 
infamous section 301 which criminalizes speech considered 
"insulting" to the Turkish state and related Turkish icons) 
are considered red-lines by powerful groups within the 
country (such as the military and the Constitutional Court). 
Bagis said he expects opposition talk to be more extreme than 
opposition action, and the AKP would proceed "at a measured 
pace." Turkey needs a new constitution; the AKP will work 
with the other parties in parliament to achieve consensus; 
and after the March 29 local elections this will become an 
important issue.  (COMMENT: Bagis is out of step with his AKP 
colleagues in Parliament, who tell us that a new constitution 
appears well out of reach any time soon. END COMMENT.) 
 
----------------- 
Cyprus and the UN 
----------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Bagis characterized Turkey's election to the Security 
Council as ironic, in that 30 years ago Turkey had been 
accused by the Security Council of "invading" Cyprus. 
Turkey's admission to the Security Council was the world's 
way of "apologizing" to Turkey for the Greek Cypriots not 
accepting the Annan Plan.  (COMMENT: Bagis seems to overlook 
Ankara's five-year estimated USD 50 million campaign to woo 
African and Asian and Latin American states, many of whom 
might have difficulty finding Cyprus on a map. END COMMENT.) 
Bagis noted when Turkey gave SG Annan the power to "fill in 
the blanks" of the settlement plan, this was the first time 
it had ever trusted a third party to be a fair broker.  He 
characterized that decision as "almost as important" as the 
decision to join NATO. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Bagis is "hopeful" a solution will be found for the 
Cyprus problem, and says the two sides' leaders are both 
acting like "statesmen." He said Turkey will support any 
solution within the framework of the Annan plan that is based 
on the political equality of the two communities.  He also 
noted, however, both "carrots and sticks" will be needed to 
bring the two sides to agreement. 
 
---------------------------------- 
The International Financial Crisis 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Bagis said as a result of lessons learned from the 
2001 financial crisis, Turkish banks have largely escaped the 
subprime crisis.  However, since 70 percent of Turkish 
exports are to the EU, Turkey's economy will necessarily be 
affected by the current global crisis.  The Turkish business 
sector is very adaptable and quick on its feet, and is 
looking to expand into other markets.  As examples, Bagis 
listed Libya and the Gulf States as places where Turkish 
companies are looking to do more business.  He pointed to the 
recent tender on construction of a nuclear plant, in which 
the only bidder was a Russian-Turkish joint venture, as an 
example of a shift in markets. 
 
---- 
Iran 
---- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Bagis stated Turkey believes everyone has the 
right to produce nuclear energy, but no one has the right to 
possess nuclear weapons.  As evidence of Turkey's intense 
interest in this issue, he noted if Iran obtains nuclear 
weapons they will be more likely to reach Ankara or Tel Aviv 
than D.C.  Iranians invented the game of chess and the 
concept of bargaining, and Turkey's main contribution to 
resolving this issue will be to create more opportunities for 
dialog. 
 
¶11.  (U) Bagis described the Nabucco gas pipeline proposal as 
"not just a dream" but as a "requirement" that will 
eventually come about, assuming that Iran makes peace with 
the Western world. 
 
----------------- 
The Kurdish Issue 
----------------- 
 
¶12.  (C) Bagis said Turkey respects the Iraqi Constitution 
and its provisions concerning regional governments.  However, 
he described the PKK as a "bleeding wound" that has to be 
treated immediately.  He said the November 5, 2007 
declaration by President Bush was a "turning point," and 
changed the attitude both of the Turkish public and of its 
government institutions.  He said the Iraqi central and 
regional governments were now both much more cooperative, 
which made Turkey much more at ease in initiating 
relationships with Iraqi players.  The PKK problem required 
both economic and cultural solutions as well as military 
solutions.  He noted when Turkish General Staff Chair Basbug 
went to the southeast he met with some NGOs that support the 
PKK, and called this a "really big shift."  He thinks the AKP 
has the right approach to solving the Kurdish problem, 
noting, for instance, 60 percent of all classrooms in the 
southeast were built in the last six years.  Bagis pointed to 
the fact that between 2002 and 2007 the AKP increased its 
share of the total vote in the Southeast from 25 percent to 
60 percent.  (COMMENT: Few political observers, even within 
the AKP, believe their support in the southeast is close to 
this level now.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶13.  (C) Bagis said DTP is working very hard to ensure the 
Constitutional Court closes it down, in order to get sympathy 
in the upcoming local elections.  He said DTP members do not 
need the party to win elections; "the person running is what 
counts." Bagis attributed the recent increase in PKK violence 
to the upcoming local elections, stating DTP is worried it 
will lose support in the upcoming elections.  (Comment: 
Bagis' claim that DTP and PKK are working together was echoed 
by Prime Minister Erdogan, who was quoted in the October 27 
edition of Sabah newspaper, as saying, "The terror 
organization (PKK) and the affiliated political party (DTP) . 
. . manipulate terror to win public support.") 
 
--------------- 
Local Elections 
--------------- 
 
¶14.  (U) When asked about upcoming municipal elections, Bagis 
said he did not want to give a numeric prediction, but 
anticipated the AKP would increase the number of mayorships 
it held, while maintaining the same level of overall support. 
 Bagis emphasized the AKP took local elections very 
seriously, saying the "foundation of the AKP is with the 
local governments." 
 
¶15.  (C) COMMENT: The silver-tongued Bagis is in every 
Western diplomat's Rolodex, and is a favorite of most 
European Ambassadors.  He is unfailingly accessible and, as a 
former State Department interpreter, has flawless English. 
He does not, however, always have a strong grip on Turkish 
foreign policy and we have learned to take his blithe 
pronouncements with a sizeable grain of salt.  He does not 
seem to be in Erdogan's inner circle on policy, but instead 
serves as a public relations advocate for the AKP: presenting 
a face of the party that they have decided foreigners would 
find pleasant and palatable. END COMMENT. 
WIENER