VZCZCXRO8916
RR RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #3699/01 3300800
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 250800Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0375
INFO RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 4283
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 0683
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 6413
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 5267
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4083
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 9459

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003699 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
REF: A. ISLAMABAD 03532 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD EAID EFIN ENGY PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN FINALLY REQUESTS IMF PROGRAM, POST GETS SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  At a meeting for G7 countries, the International 
Monetary Fund's (IMF) Resident Representative to Pakistan, Paul 
Ross, presented an overview of the Stand-By Agreement (SBA) Board 
members will consider on November 24.  Ross emphasized that the 
program fits well with Pakistan's own reform strategy.  Pakistan 
will borrow about USD 7.56 billion over two years, with USD 3 
billion available three business days after Board approval.  If 
donors do not provide additional funds the SBA can still work, but 
it would reduce Pakistan's overall growth potential.  The SBA 
projects that foreign donors will need to provide USD 4 billion over 
the next two years.  Ross identified several challenges to program 
success, including: persistent electricity subsidies, poor tax 
equity, weak social-safety nets, and rampant "law and order" 
problems.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) On November 21, EconCounselor and EconOff attended a 
briefing for G7 countries, by the International Monetary Fund's 
(IMF) Resident Representative to Pakistan, Paul Ross.  Ross 
presented an overview of the program that Board members will 
consider at the anticipated November 24 meeting.  Local 
representatives from Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, 
Germany, and the United States asked numerous questions about the 
implications of the pending IMF program 
 
--------------- 
SBA DESCRIPTION 
--------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Ross emphasized the congruity between the policy reforms 
planned by the Government of Pakistan (GOP) and the requirements of 
the SBA.  For example, the GOP has already taken action on the 
elimination of fuel subsidies and introducing the Benazir Income 
Support Program (BISP).  The design of the BISP, in particular the 
targeting and delivery, will be reviewed in the first half of 2009 
in consultation with the World Bank. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The SBA focuses on macroeconomic indicators with minimal 
prescriptions for specific policy adjustments, placing the 
responsibility for achieving the results on the GOP.  For example, 
when asked whether the program contained guidance on food subsidies, 
defense spending, or a tax on the agricultural sector, Ross said 
that the program does not contain specific policy requirements, but 
the budget deficit is a central measure of GOP program performance. 
In discussions, Ross identified two major challenges to program 
success: reducing electricity subsidies in the short term and tax 
reform in the medium term. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Ross said he was told that the November 19 Cabinet meeting 
to discuss the SBA was very lively but noted that despite strong 
initial concern, all but one minister left the meeting in favor of 
the program.  Ross believes that this is the first time that the 
Cabinet was able to consider an IMF program before Board approval, 
which he thinks is an important milestone and will make 
implementation more successful. 
 
----------- 
SBA DETAILS 
----------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The SBA currently equals about USD 7.56 billion (500 
percent of Pakistan's IMF quota or Special Drawing Rights 5.169 
billion), with a USD 3 billion upfront disbursement.  This initial 
amount would be available three business days after Board approval. 
The disbursements would be in 8 declining quarterly installments 
over the next 23 months, with a 2.25 grace period and planned 
repayment period of 2 to 4 years.  The interest rate is variable, 
but will range between 4 and 6 percent (depending on amount 
disbursed) at current rates. 
 
¶7. (SBU) According to the SBA, the GOP will shrink its fiscal 
deficit from 7.8 percent in Fiscal Year (FY) 08 to 4.2 percent in 
FY09, with a target of 3.3 in the medium term.  The GOP has already 
increased the policy interest rate from 13 percent to 15 percent and 
may tighten monetary policy further.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 
growth will drop from 5.8 percent of GDP last year to between 3 and 
3.5 percent, rise to 5 percent in FY10, and rise gradually to 6.5 
percent by FY13.  Head line consumer price index inflation is 
 
ISLAMABAD 00003699  002 OF 003 
 
 
currently 25 percent, but the goal is to reduce it to 20 percent on 
average by June 2009 and maintain 7 percent in the medium term. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The first review of the SBA implementation will be in March 
with an IMF team visit in February.  The SBA includes quantitative 
targets on: non-concessional borrowing, federal borrowing from the 
central bank, deficit spending, foreign exchange reserves 
accumulation, and central bank lending to the domestic banking 
sector.  The SBA also includes structural adjustments of: improving 
the effectiveness of the central bank to monitor private banks, 
increasing social-safety net spending, improving central bank 
operational autonomy, eliminating foreign-exchange support for oil 
imports, resolving the circular-debt problem to the domestic energy 
companies, and consolidating treasury accounts from various 
commercial banks into one governmental account.  It is important to 
note that IMF funds are not budgetary support, but will go directly 
into foreign reserves.  While the GOP may smooth exchange rate 
volatility, the rupee will be allowed to float.  Under the SBA, the 
GOP will need to meet monthly foreign exchange reserve targets to 
remain eligible for later disbursements. 
 
---------------- 
DONOR ASSISTANCE 
---------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The IMF anticipates that foreign donors will need to 
provide additional funds and Ross noted that the SBA projects a need 
of an additional USD 4 billion over the next two years.  The SBA 
projections only include donor money with a high degree of certainty 
and thus did not include any potential oil concessions from Saudi 
Arabia or other Middle Eastern countries.  Ross said the SBA does 
include "about USD 4 billion" of programmed projects from the World 
Bank and the Asian Development Bank. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Ross said that if donors do not provide the full USD 4 
billion amount the SBA can still work but it would be more 
difficult, and noted that any shortfall in donor resources would 
require additional domestic resources which would reduce Pakistan's 
overall growth potential. 
Ross mentioned that the Chinese will likely give an additional USD 
500 million soon.  The program prescribes using additional funds 
first for social safety net expenditures (about .6 percent of GDP), 
then expanding development spending (.5 percent of GDP), then to 
build foreign exchange reserves. 
 
--------- 
POTPOURRI 
--------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Ross noted that specific reductions in military spending 
are not mentioned in the SBA but said that greater transparency in 
military spending would be an added benefit to the program.  Ross 
was asked what he thought of the recent arrests of money changers. 
He observed that there has been a lot of foreign exchange leaving 
the country.  This contributed to macroeconomic weakness which, in 
turn, lead to the eagerness of both the regulators and speculators. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Ross responded to questions on evaluating the 
implementation of program elements, such as the Benazir Income 
Support Program and the reduction of electricity subsidies, by 
citing the macroeconomic target in the SBA that the IMF would track 
but said that the World Bank was responsible for monitoring.  He 
said there will be coordination, but that there should be a division 
of labor based on comparative advantage. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Ross noted that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) should 
have greater operational autonomy.  To arrest the inflationary 
practice of central bank financing of the fiscal deficit, the SBP 
and Pakistan's Ministry of Finance agreed to a zero net borrowing 
policy.  The SBP will phase out its current policy of providing 
foreign exchange for oil imports.  The SBP will also improve 
commercial bank supervision and prepare contingency plans for small 
bank failures.  Ross did not know who the GOP was considering for 
replacement of SBP's current Governor Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, whose 
term ends December 31. (reftel A) 
 
¶14. (SBU) When asked whether the SBA required any action on the 
 
ISLAMABAD 00003699  003 OF 003 
 
 
proposed stock market support mechanisms, Ross said any measures to 
remove the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)  trading floor or the use of 
support measures for the KSE  requires prior IMF consultation.  He 
said a floor should not have been used, but now that it is in place 
removal is problematic.  The use of public funds to support the 
stock market appears to assist only the wealthy while depleting 
scarce resources.  If the floor remains in place, however, Pakistan 
may be removed from the major emerging market indices, forcing some 
institutional investors to divest. 
 
¶15. (SBU) COMMENT.  The SBA includes significant risks.  The GOP 
will have to broaden the tax base by taxing the untaxed and 
under-taxed sectors, like agriculture and services.  The National 
Assembly's resistance to date demonstrates this will be very 
difficult.  Pakistan's lack of reliable energy and poor security 
situation threaten GDP growth rate and foreign investment prospects. 
 Slow economic growth and higher prices have increased poverty 
levels, requiring well-targeted and implemented social safety net 
programs. 
 
¶16. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED.  Discussion following the meeting 
between the G7 representatives concerned a potential donors' 
conference.  Among our counterparts, enthusiasm for a USD 4 billion 
package was low given the severity and range of domestic issues 
donors face and the inconsistent GOP support for the SBA.  Various 
comments about how this donor's conference could possibly be kept 
separate from the efforts of the Friends of Pakistan underscore a 
need to clarify the process for a donor's conference as soon as 
possible.  END COMMENT. 
 
PATTERSON