VZCZCXRO2662
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #3300 3091255
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041255Z NOV 08
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8469
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 003300 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Hesse SPD Self-Destructs as Minority Government Attempt 
Fails 
 
REF:  Frankfurt 2701; Frankfurt 2853 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Three Hesse SPD parliamentarians torpedoed state 
party leader Andrea Ypsilanti's plan for an SPD-Green minority 
government with the support of The Left.  The last-minute defections 
weaken the SPD as it strains to show party unity in an upcoming 
election year.  The CDU stays in power for now in Hesse and new 
elections in the coming months appear likely, which will in all most 
probably be disastrous for the SPD as it attempts to recover from 
its unpopular power grab and the devastating back-stabbing in its 
ranks.  SPD national Chairperson Franz Muentefering summed it up 
cogently when he told the Tagesspiegel November 3, "For my party, 
what happened is not good."  End Summary. 
 
Dissenters Bring Down Minority Government Attempt 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The three dissenters (joined by one who had expressed her 
dissent early on in March, 2008) said their last-minute change of 
heart was due to a crisis of conscience on cooperating with the Left 
Party, which they argued in part speaks for extreme-left ideas and 
the ideology of the former GDR.  The state parliament was scheduled 
to vote on the election of the SPD-Green government November 4, but 
the defections have left the SPD, Greens and Left short three votes 
of a needed majority.  Coming two days after delegates at a SPD 
state convention had approved the government coalition agreement by 
95.8%, the defections were an extreme and unexpected shock that 
leave its future under Chairperson Andrea Ypsilanti unclear. 
Muentefering and party Chancellor candidate FM Frank-Walter 
Steinmeier were never fans of Ypsilanti's plan, assessing that it 
could hurt the national party in an election year. 
 
¶3.  (U) The failed attempt to form a government was the second for 
the SPD since the January 2008 election.  The decision of the three 
provoked strong outrage within the party as it came so late in the 
process and went against the wishes of a large majority of party 
members.  Muentefering also spoke out against the defections saying 
the party board was shocked and indignant.  Leaving aside his 
concerns about Ypsilanti's course, he said he found it strange and 
not credible that the three parliamentarians discovered their 
conscience one day before the actual vote. 
 
Aftermath: SPD Down, CDU on the Rebound 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) New elections appear to be the only way out of Hesse's 
current political deadlock.  The Greens, now burned by their 
experience with the SPD, may vote along with the CDU and FDP to call 
for one as early as November 18.  A new election would have to take 
place in two months.  The results would probably be disastrous for 
the SPD, as the minority government attempt was unpopular among the 
electorate and the party in-fighting has further damaged its image. 
In a September poll, the SPD stood at 28% (down 9% from election 
night), while the CDU (39%) and FDP (12%) were seemingly in shooting 
distance of a majority.  (Comment: Such weak results so close before 
national elections (September 27, 2009) could erode the SPD's 
standing in the polls, which had finally stabilized and even 
improved slightly after the September change in leadership.  End 
comment.) 
 
¶5.  (U) Ypsilanti has so far made no indication that she will step 
down as chairperson, but a power struggle within the SPD appears 
likely given the recent events.  While the four dissenters probably 
will not have much of a future within the party and may face 
disciplinary action, a more moderate, fresh figure would seemingly 
give the SPD better chances in an election. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment: If state politics are Germany's political 
laboratory, the Hesse SPD's botched experiment has revealed the 
fissures between the party's right and left wings as it copes with 
the challenge of the Left Party.  This incident will heighten the 
exasperation of the national leadership with the SPD's inability to 
project an image of being calm, disciplined and in-control.  This 
will be a key task in 2009.  Meanwhile, Hesse Minister President 
Roland Koch has proven once again to be a cat with nine lives as he 
emerges the winner, standing by and watching Ypsilanti, his main 
rival, not only fail to unseat him but be destroyed politically by 
dissent within her own party. 
 
¶7.  This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
POWELL