VZCZCXRO1162
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #2297/01 3071525
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 021525Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0777
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 002297 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA AND DRL/NESCA 
NSC FOR PASCUAL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2028 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM EG
SUBJECT: ACTIVISTS PRESENT DIFFERING VIEWS ON REFORM 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 1973 
     ¶B. 07 CAIRO 2601 
     ¶C. 06 CAIRO 7251 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey for reason 1.4 (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Visiting NEA PDAS Jeffrey Feltman met 
October 26 with political activists to discuss the current 
state of reform in Egypt, and opportunities for the U.S. to 
promote democracy.  The activists mostly agreed that the 
current climate in Egypt is disappointing, citing income 
disparities, corruption, and the absence of democratic 
institutions.  Democratic Front Party President Osama 
Al-Ghazali Harb warned of chaos following President Mubarak's 
departure, and predicted the military would need to 
intervene.  Founder of the independent newspaper "Al-Masry 
Al-Youm," Hisham Kassem, called for developing democratic 
institutions in preparation for the post-Mubarak transition. 
Engi Haddad of the Africa-Egypt Human Rights Organization 
asserted that endemic corruption stymies reform.  In contrast 
to the others, Ghad Party Vice-President Wael Nawara claimed 
that political and economic conditions have recently 
improved, and was sanguine about the country's future 
stability.  He urged the U.S. to "rebuild its leverage" to 
more effectively encourage GOE reform.  Editor of the 
Al-Ahram Journal "Democracy Review," Hala Mustafa, opined 
that the GOE is trying to constrict political space to 
prepare for presidential son Gamal Mubarak to succeed his 
father.  PDAS Feltman stressed that the U.S. wants both a 
strategic partnership with the GOE and a more open political 
and economic climate in Egypt.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Democratic Front Party President Osama Al-Ghazali Harb 
emphasized the importance of internal developments in Egypt 
to the broader region.  He asserted that the current 
deterioration in Egyptian culture, education, health care and 
economic equality is "the worst in the past 200 years." 
According to Harb, 50 years of authoritarian rule has 
destroyed Egyptian politics and civil society.  He lamented 
the lack of freedom for political parties, the absence of a 
free press, and the suffering of 30-40 million people living 
in "inconceivable" poverty in slums.  He argued that the 
population understands that the regime acts against the 
public interest by destroying the opposition, and 
perpetuating corruption and inefficiency.  Harb suggested 
that the U.S. could encourage political reform by publicly 
backing the growth of independent media. 
 
¶3. (C) Harb expressed anxiety over what he perceived as the 
country's current instability, commenting that "no one knows 
what will happen tomorrow if Mubarak dies or is 
incapacitated."  Harb predicted chaos would follow Mubarak's 
death and that the military would need to intervene to 
restore order.  He doubted the likelihood of a post-Mubarak 
leadership role for the Muslim Brotherhood.  Harb commented 
that presidential son Gamal Mubarak is very unpopular, and 
opined that Gamal's allies in the NDP only pretend to support 
him out of fealty to President Mubarak.  Harb predicted that 
this support will evaporate once President Mubarak dies. 
Harb called for political parties to fill "the political 
vacuum" and create a tangible alternative to the regime. 
 
¶4. (C) Founder of the independent newspaper "Al-Masry 
Al-Youm" and former Ghad Party member Hisham Kassem 
complained that Mubarak still operates with a military 
mentality and views any criticism from civil society as an 
"army private unacceptably upbraiding a general."  He 
described the regime as being extremely sensitive to the 
perception of any threat, out of its own insecurity. 
Consequently, Kassem continued, the regime decided to destroy 
the Ghad party although Ayman Nour would only have won 15 
percent of the popular vote in a free and fair election. 
Kassem called for an independent judiciary, a credible press 
and a viable parliament.  Kassem revealed that he has "no 
illusions" of seeing democracy in his lifetime, but hopes to 
witness at least some kind of transition to a more open 
society.  He opined that Mubarak ignores medium and long-term 
issues as "he's not sure if he'll be around," and was 
therefore unmoved by the U.S. cancellation of free trade 
agreement (FTA) talks because he estimated that the benefits 
of an FTA would have taken 5-7 years to accrue.  Kassem 
commented that Egypt would need a post-Mubarak leader from 
the military, not a civilian, to impose order on any unrest. 
Kassem criticized himself and Ayman Nour for "pushing too 
hard" in 2004-5, confessing that "we could not have run the 
country even if we had won the elections."  "2005 was the 
best year of our lives," he said, referring to himself and 
his fellow oppositionists, "Now we are back to square one." 
 
 
CAIRO 00002297  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (C) Africa-Egypt Organization for Human Rights founder 
Engi Haddad identified corruption as the most powerful 
impediment to reform.  Opining that the country's elite 
businesspeople are the "strongest potential liberals," she 
speculated that stopping corruption would drive a necessary 
wedge between the business community and the regime.  She 
recommended an attempt to implement the UN Convention on 
Corruption as a tool to measure concrete improvements. 
Haddad called for progress on the rule of law in advance of a 
post-Mubarak transition.  She termed current corruption as 
"unprecedented," as if the "oligarchs realize this is the end 
and want to take everything they can." 
 
¶6. (C) The regime is currently in danger of not being able to 
continue putting food on the table for Egypt's citizens, 
Haddad warned, and she cautioned that the Muslim Brotherhood 
(MB) is already picking up the slack in providing money for 
social services.  She alleged that the MB quickly provided 
for the victims of the September Moqataam rockslide in the 
absence of GOE action (ref A).  In the current economic 
climate, Haddad asserted, civil society needs to focus on 
corruption issues affecting the economy, not political 
liberties.  "What do the poor care about free speech when 
they can't eat?" she asked. 
 
¶7. (C) Ghad Party Vice-President Wael Nawara assessed that 
political and economic conditions have improved since 2003, 
and he challenged Harb's assertion that Egypt now faces 
political instability.  He described Egypt as an historically 
stable country.  He encouraged the U.S. to consider how it 
can "rebuild leverage" to press the GOE to improve economic 
conditions and implement political reforms, such as an 
independent judiciary and a free press.  He advised the U.S. 
to use positive incentives to influence regime behavior, as 
opposed to "sticks" such as conditionality, which he viewed 
as counter-productive.  To "rebuild leverage," Nawara urged 
the U.S. to adopt a "more balanced stance" on the Middle East 
peace process and to move forward from mistakes made in Iraq. 
 He commented that popular Egyptian opposition to U.S. 
regional policies damages the credibility of liberal 
oppositionists who are closely associated with the U.S. 
Nawara expressed satisfaction with the Ghad party's showing 
in the 2005 elections, and called for oppositionists to unite 
behind a clear reform strategy.  He praised the growing role 
of Egyptian bloggers, and noted that liberals need to focus 
on achieving additional gains in the areas of independent 
media and political party freedom. 
 
¶8. (C) Editor of the Al-Ahram "Democracy Review" journal, 
Hala Mustafa, opined that the 2007 constitutional amendments 
(ref C) and the current restrictions on press freedom 
constitute a GOE strategy to constrict political space in 
order to prepare for transferring power to Gamal Mubarak. 
She described the current political situation as 
"deteriorating," and claimed that the regime is running an 
intensifying media campaign to discredit her.  She complained 
of conflicting signals from the U.S. -- "sometimes supporting 
the regime, sometimes encouraging reform."  Mustafa asked why 
the U.S. has not spoken out on Egyptian succession when the 
GOE is waiting for a "green light" to install Gamal Mubarak. 
 
¶9. (C) PDAS Feltman responded that it would be inappropriate 
for the U.S. to comment on individual successors to President 
Mubarak.  We will continue to emphasize principles, such as 
freedom of expression and rule of law, not individuals. 
Feltman told the group that the U.S. wants both a strategic 
partnership with the GOE and a more open and progressive 
political and economic climate in Egypt. 
 
¶10. (U) PDAS Feltman cleared this message. 
SCOBEY