O 131309Z NOV 08 HLB
FM AMCONSUL BELFAST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1420
INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY DUBLIN PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL BELFAST

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELFAST 000142 
 
 
NOFORN 
 
FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/13/2018 
TAGS: PREL ECON OVIP UK
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY'S VISIT TO BELFAST, 
NOVEMBER 18-19, 2008 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Robert H. Tuttle, Ambassador, London. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
¶1.  (C/NF) Summary.  Your visit to Northern Ireland will provide 
an opportunity to demonstrate our continued support for the 
historic achievement of creating a power-sharing government and 
ending Northern Ireland's decades-long sectarian violence, and 
an opportunity to restate a strong message concerning the need 
to move forward quickly on devolution of policing and justice 
powers.  Northern Ireland's leaders recognize that positive U.S. 
engagement during the past decade has led to the successful 
power-sharing arrangement in place today.  President Bush first 
conveyed the need for devolution of policing and justice powers 
to Northern Ireland's leaders when they visited the White House 
in December 2007, and again when he visited Northern Ireland in 
June 2008.  It would be useful for you to reiterate the 
President's tough message on devolution to Democratic Unionist 
Party (DUP) First Minister Peter Robinson and Sinn Fein (SF) 
Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness.  During the successful 
May 2008 US-NI Investment Conference, the President conveyed by 
video a strong positive message to potential U.S. investors that 
a stable government has returned to Northern Ireland.  You may 
want to underscore that the continuing lack of progress on 
devolution and the current impasse between the DUP and SF could 
create political uncertainty which would discourage foreign 
investors and have a negative effect on Northern Ireland's 
economic future.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
Last Piece of the Peace Deal 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C/NF) The Government of the United Kingdom devolved all 
governmental powers to Northern Ireland's power-sharing 
government on May 8, 2007, with the exception of powers related 
to policing and the administration of justice.  The October 2006 
St. Andrews Agreement envisioned that policing and justice 
powers could be devolved by May 2008.  Progress on implementing 
this final step of the devolution process has stalled because 
the DUP is concerned about former IRA members (SF) being in 
charge of security-related issues.  A NI Assembly Review 
Committee made recommendations for policing and justice 
structures in spring 2008, but the DUP and SF have not yet 
agreed to them. 
 
¶3.  (C/NF) President Bush delivered a strong message on the need 
to move forward on devolution of policing and justice when 
former DUP FM Ian Paisley Sr. and DFM Martin McGuinness visited 
the White House in December 2007.  Moving forward quickly on 
devolution was also the centerpiece of the President's message 
during his June 2008 visit to Northern Ireland.  It would be 
useful for you to reiterate the President's message on 
devolution.  You can convey that the U.S. is no longer 
interested in excuses and that it is time to resolve the issue, 
and you can tell Robinson and McGuinness that the lack of 
progress on devolution could have a negative impact on the 
positive outcomes of the May 2008 US-NI Investment Conference. 
President Bush (via video message), UK PM Brown, and Northern 
Ireland's leaders told potential investors that a stable 
government had returned and Northern Ireland was a great place 
to do business.  This message will quickly fade if the impasse 
between the DUP and SF continues. 
 
---------------------- 
PM Brown's Involvement 
---------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C/NF) Viewing Northern Ireland's political issues as mostly 
resolved, Prime Minister Gordon Brown has not been as engaged on 
Northern Ireland as his predecessor Tony Blair.  Brown's major 
initiative was the May 2008 U.S.-NI Investment Conference which 
he attended and during which he encouraged potential U.S. and 
North American investors to consider Northern Ireland as a place 
to do business.  In September 2008 PM Brown returned to Belfast 
to address Northern Ireland's Legislative Assembly.  In his 
remarks he called upon Northern Ireland's leaders to move 
quickly to resolve the differences holding up the completion of 
devolution.  His remarks were praised by SF but not well 
received by the Unionist Community. 
 
¶5.  (C/NF) DUP and SF are united on one issue -- the need for 
the British government to provide additional funding for 
devolved policing and justice.  Thus far, Brown has been 
reluctant to commit additional funds for this in advance.  As 
Chancellor under Blair, Brown made it clear to local political 
parties that there was little he could do for them financially 
to help make up for decades of economic stagnation. 
 
¶6. (C/NF) Brown continues to enjoy what UK media have dubbed the 
"Brown Bounce" for his perceived deft handling of the current 
banking crisis, a phenomena that has improved Labour's national 
polling numbers and narrowed what had been a double-digit lead 
by the Conservatives.  Labour won a decisive upset victory over 
the favored Scottish National Party in a November 6 by-election 
in the Scottish constituency of Glenrothes, further 
strengthening Brown and helping to stave off any move to unseat 
him as leader. 
 
------------------ 
Political Overview 
------------------ 
 
¶7. (C/NF) DUP FM Peter Robinson is known for his pragmatism and 
shrewd handling of the many diverse elements within the DUP.  In 
March, Robinson orchestrated the retirement of the DUP's 
long-time leader Ian Paisley.  DUP Members of the Legislative 
Assembly (MLAs) felt the party was losing support because 
Paisley appeared to enjoy too much his working relationship with 
DFM McGuinness.  Paisley's son, Ian Paisley Jr, also became a 
liability when alleged financial scandals forced him to resign 
as Junior Minister.  As Finance Minister, Robinson worked well 
with his colleagues, including SF, to pass the government's 
budget. 
 
¶7. (C/NF) Deputy First Minister McGuinness also faces pressure 
from within Sinn Fein, particularly regarding devolution of 
policing and justice.  Having signed up to policing in January 
2007 in advance of the power-sharing arrangement, Sinn Fein 
members now want to be seen as full participants in governance. 
The added pressure of recent attacks on police officers by 
dissident IRA has raised concern about Sinn Finn leaders' 
ability to control dissident elements.  McGuinness and Sinn Fein 
leader Gerry Adams denounced these attacks, and mainstream SF 
members are also being threatened by these dissident elements. 
 
¶8. (C/NF) The Northern Ireland Executive Ministers have not met 
for almost five months.  SF has been blocking meetings of this 
group because of the DUP's unwillingness to agree on a date for 
devolution of policing and justice.  The lack of an Executive 
meeting has limited the devolved government's ability to tackle 
serious economic, health, and education issues.  Members of the 
Executive from Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Social Democratic 
and Labour Party (SDLP) have been extremely critical of the DUP 
and SF disagreement which has blocked the work of government. 
 
-------------------- 
Economic Development 
-------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C/NF) Over the last decade the economic situation in 
Northern Ireland has improved and the economy has been in 
relatively good shape.  Foreign investment into Northern 
Ireland, particularly from the United States, has been robust, 
with significant new U.S. investments regularly announced. 
Northern Ireland's economy still needs to make up for several 
decades of almost non-existent investment due to the sectarian 
violence.  Local economists believe the recent world economic 
downturn will negatively impact Northern Ireland more than other 
regions of the UK. 
 
¶10.  (C/NF) Ambassador to Ireland Thomas Foley, Special Envoy 
Paula Dobriansky, and I worked closely with the Northern Ireland 
government to organize a major investment conference in Belfast 
in May 2008. The Conference highlighted for more than 100 U.S. 
business executives the many attractions of doing business in 
Northern Ireland, such as its stable, highly motivated and 
educated workforce.  The British and Northern Ireland 
Governments were very pleased with the concrete outcomes and 
success of the Investment Conference in May 2008 and very 
appreciative of U.S. Government support. 
 
---------------------- 
Post Conflict Outreach 
---------------------- 
 
¶11. (C/NF) Northern Ireland's political leaders recognize they 
have come a long way during the past few decades and many 
politicians now enjoy sharing their negotiating experiences and 
best practices with politicians from other regions in conflict, 
including Iraqis, Israelis, Palestinians, Sri Lankans and 
Kosovars.  Most noteworthy is the work by DFM McGuinness and DUP 
Junior Minister Jeffrey Donaldson, who during the past year have 
met twice in Finland with a delegation of Iraqis, including 
Sunni, Shia and Kurds, to share their experiences in achieving 
peace.  The Iraqis invited the delegation to visit Baghdad. 
McGuinness and other delegation members traveled to Iraq in July 
2008 to continue the work they started in Finland. 
 
 
ELLIOTT