VZCZCXRO7985
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #4354/01 3311134
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261134Z NOV 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1103
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 004354 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2033 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KIFR CH IN
SUBJECT: CHINA DISMISSES TIBET EXILE CONFERENCE, CONTACTS 
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR PROGRESS 
 
REF: A. BEIJING 4231 
     ¶B. BEIJING 4196 
     ¶C. BEIJING 4168 
 
BEIJING 00004354  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Section Chief 
Ben Moeling.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Following last week's Tibet exiles conference 
in Dharamsala, Han Chinese contacts provided PolOffs 
with a pessimistic perspective on the environment for 
China's talks with the Dalai Lama's representatives, 
observing that Tibet is "not a priority" for Beijing 
and noting that the PRC has successfully "villainized" 
the Dalai Lama in China.  Other interlocutors pointed 
to strategic obstacles to any softening in Beijing's 
attitude, citing the PRC leadership's concerns about 
Xinjiang separatism and Sino-Indian relations as 
factors contributing to China's hard line.  Liberal 
contacts linked improvement in the Chinese 
Government's treatment of Tibet to progress on broader 
political reform in China.  PRC official media 
dismissed the conference as a tactic for the Dalai 
Lama to solidify his power over Tibetan exiles and 
"threaten" China with independence, but a living 
Buddha in Qinghai told PolOff that pro-independence 
groups are, in fact, gaining influence among Tibetan 
exiles, asserting that the Tibetan Youth Congress will 
be able to "insert some of its policies" into the 
Dalai Lama's "Middle Way" approach.  End Summary. 
 
CHINA'S MEDIA: "DALAI LAMA SOLIDIFIES POWER" 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Coverage in China of the recently concluded 
Tibetan exile meeting in Dharamsala, India was largely 
restricted to PRC newspapers that specialize in 
international affairs.  The Global Times, a paper 
known for its nationalist views and run by the Party 
flagship newspaper People's Daily, ran a long article 
on the meeting November 24.  The piece argued that the 
Dalai Lama used the conference primarily to solidify 
his own power over Tibetans in exile and to threaten 
to seek independence should talks continue to go 
nowhere.  The International Herald Leader, operated by 
the official Xinhua News Agency, printed a similar 
article November 25 that quoted PRC Tibet experts and 
officials as saying the Dalai Lama promotes the 
"Middle Way" mainly because the international 
community would not support violence or any campaign 
for overt Tibetan independence.  The Dalai Lama's 
offer to retire or semi-retire from politics, the 
Herald Leader reported, was a tactic to counter 
pressure from the "pro-independence" Tibetan Youth 
Congress and other more radical Tibetans who remain 
frustrated by the lack of progress. 
 
LIBERAL CHINESE PERSPECTIVE 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Though representing a minority view in China, 
liberal Embassy contacts were quite critical of the 
PRC Government's Tibet policy in recent conversations 
with PolOff, with some linking the Tibet situation to 
progress on human rights and political reform more 
broadly within China.  For example, Qin Hui (protect), 
a liberal scholar at Tsinghua University and one of 
China's most prominent intellectuals, told PolOff 
November 24 that although the Tibetan exiles voted to 
stick with the Middle Way approach, China will 
continue to face "mounting difficulties" in Tibet, 
particularly if Beijing does not alter its current 
approach.  The cases of the former Soviet Union and 
Yugoslavia demonstrate that economic growth and 
integration alone will not dampen Tibetan independence 
sentiment.  Rather, progress depends on China's 
ability to improve human rights conditions, both in 
Tibet and throughout all of China.  In fact, the PRC 
needs to "grant autonomy to every individual," Qin 
averred.  Once Tibetans have more personal freedom, 
especially to worship without government interference, 
then the situation there can stabilize, Qin asserted, 
adding that respect for human rights and minority 
rights is one reason the United States does not have 
problems with separatism.  Moreover, contrary to 
charges made by Tibetan exile groups, Qin argued, the 
Communist Party simply cannot use demographics to 
"pacify" the region.  Han Chinese may be willing to go 
 
BEIJING 00004354  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
to high altitude areas for seasonal work, but they do 
not want to settle there permanently, Qin said. 
 
¶4. (C) Mao Yushi (protect), Chairman of the Unirule 
Institute for Economics, one of China's few 
independent think tanks, separately echoed Qin Hui's 
comments in a November 25 meeting with PolOff.  The 
main reason for the March 14 riots in Tibetan areas, 
Mao said, is the Communist Party's "old thinking," 
particularly its "hostility" toward religion and its 
"unequal treatment" of Tibetans and other minorities. 
Mao commented that he is personally not upset by the 
idea that minority groups in China would rather be 
independent. Throughout its history, Chinese provinces 
have sought independence from the central government. 
For example, as a child in Republican-era Guangxi 
Province, Mao said, he remembers using currency 
printed by the local warlord.  "I say let Tibet and 
Taiwan be independent, it has no impact on my day-to- 
day life," Mao said, though he acknowledged his views 
are "hardly mainstream" among Han Chinese.  Mao Yushi 
said that because the Dalai Lama is "so weak" compared 
to China, the PRC leadership does not approach 
negotiations with sincerity, merely dismissing 
everything the Tibetans say as "seeking independence." 
China's rulers view separatism in Muslim Xinjiang as a 
"much more immediate problem," which leads to 
unwillingness to compromise with the Dalai Lama for 
fear that this will create pressure to grant similar 
compromises for Xinjiang's Uighurs, Mao Yushi argued. 
 
¶5. (C) Note:  Qin and Mao's comments track with those 
of other liberal Embassy contacts in linking the lack 
of progress on human rights and political reform in 
China with Beijing's hard-line policies on Tibet. 
Speaking before the Tibetan exiles conference, 
dissident writer Wang Lixiong (protect) told PolOff 
November 7 that fundamental changes in China's Tibet 
policy will come only when China democratizes. 
Separately, Professor Zhao Fasheng (protect) a "neo- 
Confucian" scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social 
Sciences, on November 6 said the prospects for a more 
liberal PRC Tibet policy "died" at the same time the 
Tiananmen protests were crushed in 1989.  Many of the 
leaders purged over Tiananmen, as well as Premier Hu 
Yaobang before that in 1987, were not only in favor of 
political reform but were also accused of being "too 
soft" on Tibet, Zhao asserted.  Therefore, Zhao 
argued, a more "humane" Chinese approach on Tibet will 
not be feasible until political liberalization in 
China becomes a possibility. 
 
WAITING FOR THE DALAI LAMA TO DIE 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Well-connected freelance journalist Chen Jieren 
(protect), while largely stating views more commonly 
held among the majority of Han Chinese, nevertheless 
echoed Mao Yushi's comments about the importance of 
Xinjiang in shaping Chinese leaders' approach to 
Tibet.  Chen told PolOff November 24 that China was 
"not very concerned" with the Tibetan exiles 
conference but that the leadership is much more 
concerned with the potential for "serious unrest" in 
Xinjiang.  From a security and sovereignty 
perspective, China really "has no choice" but to 
continue to take a tough line and maintain the "status 
quo" on Tibet, Chen argued.  Given the option, most 
ethnic Tibetans in China would almost certainly choose 
independence, but China could never accept that 
outcome due to geostrategic considerations.  "Tibetan 
independence would equal war with India," Chen 
declared, something Beijing simply will not allow. 
Though the door to dialogue with the Dalai Lama 
remains "open," Tibet is not a high priority issue for 
China.  Chen agreed that China is waiting for the 
Dalai Lama to die in the hopes the Tibetan movement 
will weaken and splinter afterward.  Moreover, Beijing 
would "be delighted" to see "more radical" Tibetan 
exiles opt for independence, as that would justify 
even harsher countermeasures by Beijing, Chen 
asserted. 
 
¶7. (C) Wang Wen (protect), Opinion Editor at the 
Global Times newspaper, echoed Chen's pessimism about 
the future of talks with the Dalai Lama's 
representatives.  China has never engaged the Dalai 
Lama seriously, Wang averred, noting that the talks 
are mostly "for show."  If China really wanted to seek 
a settlement on Tibet, the Dalai Lama has already 
 
BEIJING 00004354  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
"said many of the right things," Wang stated.  The 
problem is, China simply "does not believe" what the 
Dalai Lama says on issues such as independence and 
autonomy.  There have been ample chances to reconcile, 
but China simply is not interested.  China thus will 
wait for the Dalai Lama to die and then select his 
successor.  Wang noted that the Dalai Lama has said 
publicly that he believes the Chinese Government is 
acting in bad faith in the talks, but that he still 
has faith in the "Chinese people."  That faith is 
"misplaced," Wang declared, as the Dalai Lama has been 
successfully "villianized" in the eyes of most 
Chinese. 
 
"UNGRATEFUL" TIBETANS 
--------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Sharing sentiments held among many majority 
Han, China Reform Forum Deputy Secretary General Cao 
Huiyin (protect) argued to PolOff November 24 that the 
Tibet issue demonstrates how many Chinese minorities 
remain "ungrateful" for the vast investment China has 
made in their well-being.  Not only has China received 
"nothing" in return for its investment, but many 
minorities, including the Tibetans, have only become 
"more aggressive."  In sum, China is "not worried" 
about the Tibetan exiles because they are outside the 
country and can be "as independent as they want to 
be."  Cao's assistant, Dai Fengning (protect), while 
agreeing with Cao, nevertheless grimly stated that 
China will be faced with the Tibet issue for "decades" 
to come.  "We have not solved the Tibet problem over 
the past 50 years, and we may have to deal with it for 
another 50," Dai concluded. 
 
"TIBETANS WANT MORE INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT" 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶9. (C) Providing a perspective from the Tibetan 
community within China, Luosang Cicheng Pengcuo 
(strictly protect), a living Buddha at Lucang 
Monastery in Guinan, Qinghai Province, told PolOff on 
November 24 that, despite the outcome of the 
Dharamsala conference, "pro-independence" groups are 
gaining influence among Tibetan exiles.  Although the 
exiles voted to maintain the "Middle Way," Pengcuo 
said the more radical Tibetan Youth Congress will be 
able to "insert some of its policies" into the Middle 
Way approach.  Pengcuo, who said Tibetans in China 
have had difficulty obtaining detailed information 
about the conference, commented that ethnic Tibetans 
here want the international community, and especially 
the United States, to become "more directly involved" 
in the talks between China and the Dalai Lama's 
representatives.  Progress will only be made if 
foreign countries are more willing to intervene, 
Pengcuo stated. 
RANDT