VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAN #0750/01 3111402
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061402Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA  PRIORITY
INFO RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0068
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1042
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1760
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000750 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV 
PARIS FOR RKANEDA 
LONDON FOR PLORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP MARR MAP ASEC MA
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CJTF-HOA REAR ADMIRAL GREENE VISIT 
TO MADAGASCAR 
 
1.(SBU) SUMMARY: WELCOME TO ANTANANARIVO! YOUR VISIT TO 
MADAGASCAR COMES AT A TIME WHEN OUR EFFORTS AT SECURITY 
CAPACITY BUILDING IN BOTH COMOROS AND MADAGASCAR ARE 
RECEIVING AN UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF HOST NATION COOPERATION. 
YOUR ARRIVAL IS ONLY THE SECOND VISIT BY A COMMANDER, 
COMBINED JOINT TASK FORCE, HORN OF AFRICA, MARKING ONE OF 
ONLY TWO HIGH LEVEL MILITARY VISITS IN DECADES. MADAGASCAR, 
UNLIKE SOME OTHER REGIONAL PARTNERS, HAS REACTED IN A PURELY 
POSITIVE WAY TO THE STANDING-UP OF THE AFRICA COMMAND, AND 
OFFICIALS HERE HOPE -- AS WE DO -- THAT THIS WILL PORTEND 
INCREASING MIL-TO-MIL ENGAGEMENT WITH A FRIENDLY NATION THAT 
IS VERY OPEN TO THE U.S.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------- 
MADAGASCAR - POLITICAL 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) RELATIVE POLITICAL STABILITY, SIGNIFICANT NATURAL 
RESOURCES, A STRATEGIC LOCATION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND A 
DISTINCTLY PRO-AMERICAN GOVERNMENT MAKE MADAGASCAR A COUNTRY 
OF GROWING INTEREST TO THE UNITED STATES. MADAGASCAR IS 
IMPORTANT BECAUSE, ALMOST ALONE AMONG AFRICAN COUNTRIES, IT 
IS MAKING SIMULTANEOUS PROGRESS IN CONSOLIDATING DEMOCRACY, 
DEVELOPING A FREE MARKET ECONOMY, COMBATTING CORRUPTION AND 
TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS, PREEMPTIVELY FIGHTING HIV-AIDS, AND 
PROTECTING ITS UNIQUE ENVIRONMENT. IN RECOGNITION OF THESE 
ACCOMPLISHMENTS, MADAGASCAR WAS SELECTED AS THE FIRST 
MILLENIUM CHALLENGE ACCOUNT (MCA) COUNTRY IN 2005. HOWEVER, 
THESE ADVANCES ARE FRAGILE AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO SETBACKS IN A 
COUNTRY OF HEARTBREAKING POVERTY, SHALLOW ROOTED DEMOCRATIC 
TRADITIONS, AND AN UNEVEN COMMITMENT TO A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD 
FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS. 
 
-------------------------------- 
MADAGASCAR - SECURITY CHALLENGES 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) IN TERMS OF SECURITY, MADAGASCAR,S MARITIME BORDERS 
CONTINUE TO BE OF CONCERN AS A POSSIBLE CONDUIT OF 
TRANSNATIONAL CRIME, TERRORISM AND ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. 
MADAGASCAR COOPERATES CLOSELY WITH US IN COMBATTING TERRORISM 
AND SEEKING TO PREVENT POSSIBLE AL-QAEDA MEMBERS OR OTHERS 
USING THE POROUS BORDER TO TRANSIT FROM MAINLAND AFRICA OR 
THE MIDDLE EAST TO MADAGASCAR TO TRAIN, RECRUIT, AND/OR BUILD 
TERRORIST INFRASTRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THE HUMAN AND MATERIAL 
RESOURCES AVAILABLE FOR THIS EFFORT ARE LIMITED. AN ISLAND 
NATION, MADAGASCAR ONLY RECENTLY PROCURED (FROM THE EU) ITS 
FIRST VESSEL CAPABLE OF CIRCUMNAVIGATING ITS OWN TERRITORY. 
OTHER MALAGASY CONCERNS, WHICH WE SHARE, TEND TO BE MORE 
ECONOMIC IN NATURE: POACHED FISHERIES, ILLEGAL LOGGING, AND 
SMUGGLING OF GEMSTONES, NARCOTICS AND CATTLE. THESE ISSUES 
ARE RAISED FREQUENTLY BY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. WITHIN ITS 
LIMITED CAPACITY, THE GOM HAS BEEN A WILLING PARTNER ON 
COUNTERTERRORISM, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, AND MARITIME 
SECURITY ISSUES. THE GOM HAS A 
SMALL CONTINGENT IN DARFUR; HOSTED THE FIRST INTERNATIONAL 
MARITIME SECURITY CONFERENCE IN JULY 2006; CONTINUES TO 
MAINTAIN AND USE EXCESS DEFENSE ARTICLE (EDA) BOATS DONATED 
IN 2003 TO TRY TO PROTECT THEIR MARITIME DOMAIN; INVESTED IN 
PORT AND AIRPORT SECURITY; AND HAS RESPONDED QUITE POSITIVELY 
TO THE STANDING-UP OF THE AFRICA COMMAND.  YOUR VISIT WILL BE 
AN OPORTUNITY TO EXPLAIN IN SOME DEPTH WHAT IT WILL MEAN -- 
AND NOT MEAN -- FOR MADAGASCAR TO BE WITHIN AFRICOM'S AOR. 
 
------------------- 
COMOROS - POLITICAL 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) THE UNION OF COMOROS CURRENTLY ENJOYS STATUS AS ONE 
OF A LIMITED NUMBER OF MODERATE MUSLIM DEMOCRACIES. HOWEVER, 
THE STABILITY IS HISTORICALLY TENUOUS AS THE COMORAN UNION 
HAS HAD NUMEROUS COUPS SINCE INDEPENDENCE IN 1975. A 2008 
INVASION/LIBERATION OF ANJOUAN TOOK PLACE ON MARCH 25 WITH AN 
AMPHIBIOUS ASSAULT LED BY THE COMOROS AND BACKED BY AFRICAN 
UNION FORCES FROM TANZANIA AND SUDAN, WITH DIPLOMATIC AND 
LOGISTICAL SUPPORT FROM THE U.S., LIBYA, AND OTHERS. THE 
OPERATION ACHIEVED ITS OBJECTIVE OF TOPPLING ANJOUAN RENEGADE 
WARLORD COLONEL MOHAMMED BACAR, WHO HAD REFUSED TO STEP DOWN 
AS ISLAND PRESIDENT (GOVERNOR) AS CONSTITUTIONALLY REQUIRED 
IN 2007 AND CONDUCTED A SHAM ELECTION TO PROLONG HIMSELF IN 
OFFICE IN DEFIANCE OF THE UNION GOVERNMENT, THE AU, AND 
 
PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL OPINION. MOUSSA TOYBOU WON THE 
PEACEFUL ELECTIONS FOR ANJOUAN PRESIDENT HELD ON JUNE 15 AND 
29, 2008. THERE HAS BEEN CONTINUING POLITICAL TENSION AS THE 
2010 UNION PRSIDENTIAL ELECTION DRAWS NEARER. UNION PRESIDENT 
SAMBI HAS 
 VOICED INTENTIONS TO SEEK A POPULAR REFERENDUM TO REVIEW AND 
REVISE THE CURRENT CONSTITUTION.  WHILE SAMBI PROMISES THAT 
HE WILL STEP DOWN IN 2010 AND ONLY SEEKS TO MAKE THE SYSTEM 
FUNCTION BETTER AND MORE EFFICIENTLY, SUSPICION OVER HIS 
"REAL" INTENTIONS ARE RIFE:  MANY ARE FEARFUL THAT HE WILL 
SEEK TO ALTER THE PRINCIPLE OF THE PRESIDENCY ROTATING AMONG 
THE THREE ISLANDS AND SEEK TO PROLONG HIS OWN MANDATE BEYOND 
¶2012.  THIS HAS EXACERBATED LONG-STANDING CONCERNS OVER THE 
FRAGILE BALANCE BETWEEN ISLAND AUTONOMY AND REPRESENTATION IN 
THE UNION GOVERNMENT. ADDITIONAL TENSIONS STEM FROM RISING 
FOOD PRICES, PERSISTENT FUEL AND ELECTRICITY SHORTAGES, AND 
PERCEIVED GOVERNMENT MIS-MANAGEMENT OF THESE ISSUES. 
 
----------------------------- 
COMOROS - SECURITY CHALLENGES 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMOROS IS A NATION WITH LITTLE, IF ANY, CONTROL 
OVER ITS BORDERS AND MARITIME SPACES. THEY HAVE NO MARITIME 
DOMAIN AWARENESS, NO ELECTRONIC SURVEILLANCE CAPABILITY AND 
NO AIR OR SURFACE ASSETS FOR PATROL. THE THREE ISLANDS IN THE 
UNION EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT ILLEGAL TRAFFIC IN BOTH 
DIRECTIONS ON AN AXIS FROM THE EAST AFRICAN COAST THROUGH THE 
COMORAN UNION, MAYOTTE AND MADAGASCAR. ILLICIT TRAFFICKING 
INCLUDES DRUGS, CATTLE, AND ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. DUE TO THE 
LACK OF MARITIME AWARENESS, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ASCERTAIN THE 
TRUE SCALE OF ILLEGAL FISHING IN COMORAN WATERS. SINCE THE 
RECOVERY OF ANJOUAN ISLAND, THE COMORAN DEFENSE FORCES ARE 
SEEKING TO EXPAND THEIR NUMBERS TO REPLACE THE AU FORCES 
DEPARTING THE ISLAND. THE MILITARY IS HAMPERED BY LACK OF 
RESOURCES AND ENGLISH LANGUAGE ABILITY WHICH CAN RESTRICT 
COMORAN PARTICIPATION IN U.S. COURSES. THE COMORANS WILL 
RECEIVE AN FMF-PURCHASED ARCHANGEL PATROL BOAT IN 2009 AS 
THEIR FIRST DEDICATED MARITIME PATROL ASSET. 
 
---------------------------- 
COMOROS - CJTF-HOA INFLUENCE 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) AT THE MOMENT, THE CJTF-HOA PROJECTS CONDUCTED BY THE 
CONSTRUCTION BATTALION AND CIVIL AFFAIRS TEAM ARE THE MOST 
VISIBLE DIRECT U.S. AID EFFORT IN THE ISLANDS.  (USAID ALSO 
HAS SMALL EDUCATION AND MICRO-FINANCE PROJECTS, AND THERE IS 
A ROBUST "AMERICAN CORNER" IN MORONI AS WELL.)   THE TEAMS 
HAVE HAD A BENEFICIAL EFFECT, BOTH DIRECTLY THROUGH THE 
PROJECTS AND INDIRECTLY THROUGH THEIR PRESENCE AND POSITIVE 
INTERACTION WITH THE COMORAN PUBLIC. THE U.S. EMBASSY (AND 
PRESIDENT SAMBI HIMSELF) SEEKS TO SHIFT THE EMPHASIS TO 
PROJECTS THAT CAN BE COMPLETED MORE RAPIDLY AND 
OST-EFFECTIVELY FOR A MORE IMMEDIATE IMPACT.  FOR OBVIOUS 
POLITICAL REASONS, IT IS ALSO NECESSARY TO EXTEND CJTF-HOA'S 
ACTIVITIES TO THE ISLANDS OF MOHELI AND ANJOUAN AS RAPIDLY AS 
POSSIBLE; HERETOFORE ALL PROJECTS HAVE OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND 
OF GRANDE COMORE.  WE ALSO SEEK TO DIRECTLY INVOLVE COMORAN 
MILITARY "HANDS-ON" AND MIL-TO-MIL IN THE IMPLEMENTION OF THE 
PROJECTS. WE ALSO SUPPORT THE EARLIEST POSSIBLE INVITATION TO 
A COMORAN LIAISON OFFICER TO DJIBOUTI. TWO ISSUES FOR FUTURE 
EXPLORATION ARE THE REQUEST BY THE COMORAN GOVERNMENT FOR 
CJTF-HOA TO TRAIN POLICE FORCES ON THE ISLAND OF ANJOUAN, AND 
THE POSSI 
BILITY OF THE SEABEE MEDIC ENGAGING IN ANTI-MALARIA 
ASSISTANCE.  WITH THE ABOVE CAVEATS, THE AMBASSADOR STRONGLY 
SUPPORTS A CONTINUING CJTF-HOA PRESENCE IN THE COMOROS. 
 
------------------------------- 
MADAGASCAR - CJTF-HOA INFLUENCE 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO DIRECT CJTF-HOA PROJECTS IN 
MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, MADAGASCAR WOULD PROVIDE AMPLE 
OPPORTUNITY FOR -- AND WELCOME -- HOA ENGAGEMENT. RECENT 
INITIATIVES BY CJTF-HOA TO HELP OBTAIN AUTOMATED 
IDENTIFICATION SYSTEMS (AIS) ACCOMPLISHES ONE OF THE FIRST 
NECESSARY STEPS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TANGIBLE MARITIME 
SECURITY CAPABILITY. ESTABLISHMENT OF A LIAISON OFFICER 
PROVIDES THE FIRST ESTABLISHED OPERATIONAL LINK BETWEEN THE 
 
U.S. AND MALAGASY MILITARIES. CONTINUED LIAISON AND TRAINING 
OPPORTUNITIES ARE DESIRED, RESOURCES PERMITTING. ALSO, OTHER 
COMMITMENTS PERMITTING, IT WOULD BE BENEFICIAL TO INVESTIGATE 
THE POSSIBILITY OF PARTICIPATING WITH THE WELL-DRILLING 
ASSETS IN MADAGASCAR OR OTHER HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS PROGRAMS 
WITHIN HOA'S CAPABILITIES. 
 
--------------------------- 
MADAGASCAR - TALKING POINTS 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MALAGASY LEADERS WILL 
RAISE THEIR DESIRE FOR U.S. ASSISTANCE WITH SECURITY FOR THE 
AFRICAN UNION SUMMIT THIS COMING JULY. THE GOM RAISED THE 
ISSUE WITH US RECENTLY IN AN ACTIVE EFFORT TO OBTAIN USG 
ASSISTANCE TO HELP WITH PLANNING, AND HOA OR AFRICOM 
ASSISTANCE WOULD BE WELCOME IF FEASIBLE; OTHER POSSIBLE 
RESPONSES ARE UNDER REVIEW. THE PENDING ACQUISITION OF AIS 
RECEIVERS WOULD A GOOD NEWS STORY APPROPRIATE FOR DELIVERY TO 
THE PRIME MINISTER AND/OR MINISTER OF DEFENSE DURING YOUR 
CALLS HERE; THE ISSUE WAS FIRST BRIEFED TO PRESIDENT 
RAVALOMANANA DURING HIS OCTOBER 2007 VISIT ABOARD THE USS 
NORMANDY, AND HE REACTED POSITIVELY TO IT.  MOST IMPORTANTLY, 
YOUR VISIT PROVIDES THE OPPORTUNITY TO EMPHASIZE THAT WHILE 
MADAGASCAR HAS A TRADITION OF INSULARITY, THEY HAVE A GREAT 
OPPORTUNITY TO EXERCISE REGIONAL SECURITY LEADERSHIP IN THE 
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWIO).  THE STANDING UP OF THE AFRICA 
COMAND, WITH MADAGASCAR NOW WITHIN ITS AOR RATHER THAN 
PACOM'S, SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INC 
REASE OUR MIL-TO-MIL ENGAGEMENT HERE.  AFTER YEARS ON THE FAR 
PERIPHERY OF ENGAGEMENT WITH THE U.S., THAT MESSAGE ALONE 
WILL BE MUSIC TO MALAGASY EARS. 
MARQUARDT