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O 201006Z OCT 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3811
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000695 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SW IR BO GG RS AF
SUBJECT: SWEDISH SOC DEM LEADER AHLIN ON BELARUS, 
AFGHANISTAN AND IRAN 
 
Classified By: DCM ROBERT SILVERMAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B AND D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  On October 15, Urban Ahlin, the foreign 
policy spokesman of the opposition Social Democrats told DCM 
and POL counselor: 
 
-- On Afghanistan, he is working to cement Social Democratic 
support for the Government,s bill to expand troops, but it 
will be a "tough ride" for the bill. 
-- On Iran, Bildt is opposed to EU unilateral sanctions 
primarily because he wants to try to broker a deal resolving 
the Iranian nuclear problem. (Comment: Bildt and Ahlin are 
rivals, and the Swedish Government has other reasons for 
opposing unilateral sanctions.) 
-- On Belarus, he believes the government itself was 
surprised by the 100% win in parliamentary elections, which 
he attributes to election authorities acting independently in 
Homo Sovieticus mode. End Summary. 
 
Belarus 
------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Ahlin, who was in Belarus as an OSCE election monitor 
during the September 28 parliamentary elections, said the 
Belorussians themselves were surprised at how "badly" the 
elections went. To have none of the 110 seats go to 
opposition candidates looked "embarrassing."  Ahlin said he 
asked repeatedly to be able to observe the vote count, even 
though he knew -- and his contacts in the Belarus MFA said 
they knew -- that the actual counting was irrelevant.  "One 
could see from the organized lines of soldiers and students 
coming to the election center at set times that the votes had 
ready been decided" before the actual ballots were cast.  In 
all, 40 percent of monitors were not allowed to watch the 
vote counting, he asserted.  The MFA expressed "genuine 
surprise" that the Election Commission "had not received the 
message from the top" about allowing observers at the ballot 
counting, said Ahlin, who wondered aloud whether the problem 
lay with local election officials who grew up in Soviet times. 
 
¶3.  (C) Despite the election outcome, Ahlin stated it was 
good that the EU had lifted visa restrictions on a temporary 
basis, because Minsk has still not recognized the 
independence of the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South 
Ossetia, although he expected Belarus to do so soon, noting 
the recent Putin visit to Minsk.  Ahlin commented that 
"Russia,s strategic thinking is clear to me: an unambiguous 
message about their sphere of influence in the Near Abroad." 
Still, the Russians are "in shock" about the international 
reaction to the invasion of Georgia, "shocked that they are 
so alone." 
 
Afghanistan 
----------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Ahlin said it will be a "tough ride" within the 
opposition camp, and within his own Social Democratic party, 
to build support for the parliamentary bill extending the 
Swedish presence in ISAF in 2009.  (Comment: MFA is currently 
putting finishing touches on the draft legislation, which is 
scheduled to be submitted to Parliament on October 23. 
Interlocutors tell us that a modest troop increase from the 
current 375 is possible, perhaps to the 410-450 range.) 
"Personally, I am a little bit nervous about passage of the 
bill," he stated, noting that within the party there was an 
active debate over when Swedes would know they had been 
successful in Afghanistan and how to define victory.  Despite 
the debate, Ahlin pointed out that his party is on record as 
supportive of more troops for Afghanistan and for closing 
down Sweden,s contributions to the Kosovo mission.  Much 
will depend on the position of Lena Hjelm-Wallen, the head of 
the Swedish-Afghanistan Committee and a senior leader on the 
left wing of the Social Democratic Party; "she is the 
strongest friend and ally that we could have on the question 
of continuing our presence in Afghanistan," Ahlin said, 
adding that as long as Hjelm-Wallen is in favor, it will be 
"helpful" for those of us that want to stay there. 
 
Tensions within the Opposition 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Ahlin commented that the left-right debates within 
the Social Democratic Party "have really heated up" over the 
question the Lisbon Treaty, Afghanistan, Swedish labor law, 
and the participation of the Left Party in the opposition 
camp.  "Of course now that we are in opposition, everything 
the government does is wrong," he stated.  "If we were in 
government, we would clearly support an increase of troops in 
Afghanistan." 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000695  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
Iran 
---- 
 
¶6.  (C) We asked Ahlin why Sweden seems to be against EU 
sanctions on Iran, Ahlin stated that Foreign Minister Carl 
Bildt has become "seized" with the matter, seeking out 
briefings on Iran and meeting quietly with Iranian officials. 
 "He thinks he can work a deal," Ahlin speculated, noting 
that serving as a mediator on Iran would enhance Bildt,s 
stature in his campaign to replace Solana.  Pressed further, 
Ahlin recalled Bildt,s fascination in working with Iranians, 
for instance when he and Bildt both met FM Mottaki in 
Stockholm last year. 
 
¶7.  (C) Comment: Ahlin,s speculation about Bildt,s personal 
motivations for opposing unilateral sanctions on Iran is 
interesting, but not the last word.  Bildt and his deputy 
Belfrage (see septel) frame their opposition in terms of 
skepticism on the effectiveness of unilateral sanctions 
outside the UN system.  Ahlin and Bildt collaborate 
frequently behind the scenes, but are also rivals and 
critical of each other in public. 
WOOD