VZCZCXRO1593
OO RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHC #2442/01 2961517
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 221510Z OCT 08
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 STATE 112442 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL ARF PTER NK BM IR ASEAN EAID MARR PK KNNP
SUBJECT: REPORT: ARF MULLS VISION STATEMENT, PUSHES DISASTER RELIEF 
EXERCISE AT SINGAPORE ISG 
 
REF: 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  At the October 8-10 ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) 
Inter-sessional Support Group (ISG), ARF members discussed the 
foundational elements of an ARF Vision Statement to be drafted over 
the next year.   The United States and a few others consistently 
encouraged ARF members to produce a bold, clear and strategic 
statement focused on significantly strengthening ARF's mandate with a 
particular focus on transnational security issues.  The Philippines 
and the United States comprehensively briefed ARF's 27 members on the 
critical details of a May 4-8, 2009 ARF disaster relief exercise. 
ISG Participants held a focused and organized discussion of critical 
security issues facing the ARF region, including the Korean 
Peninsula, Burma and Pakistan.  Delegations also discussed a variety 
of other institutional initiatives ongoing in ARF.  END SUMMARY 
 
----------------------------------------- 
DELIBERATIONS OF VISION STATEMENT SUBDUED 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Singapore and Thailand chaired a session to discuss the 
foundational elements of an ARF Vision Statement to be drafted over 
the next year.  A number of delegations focused more at this early 
stage of discussion on the process of drafting a statement rather 
than the substance that would form such a statement.  Thailand will 
distribute an initial "list of elements" in November and then an 
initial draft statement in February 2009.  Along with a few other 
like-minded countries, USDEL consistently stressed the importance 
that ARF agree to produce a bold, clear and strategic statement 
focused on significantly strengthening ARF's mandate with a 
particular focus on transnational security issues. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
ARF BRIEFED ON DISASTER RELIEF EXERCISE 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) For the first time, ARF's 27 members were comprehensively 
briefed by the Philippines and the United States on the operational 
details of the May 4-8, 2009 ARF disaster relief exercise (termed 
Voluntary Demonstration of Response, or VDR) in Luzon, the 
Philippines.  The Philippines briefed ARF on the scenario, planning 
assumptions, planning conference dates, invitation process and rules 
of participation.  The United States, as co-chair, and the 
Philippines approached a number of key ARF members to urge their 
strong participation in the exercise, and encouraged them to begin 
identifying appropriate representatives to participate in upcoming 
VDR planning meetings.  These consultations will continue in the 
coming months as this exercise will occur under an ambitious timeline 
from October 2008 to May 2009.  This multilateral field exercise with 
ARF members will seek to provide a major deliverable for ARF, 
highlight major power military cooperation in Southeast Asia, build 
civil-military assistance capacity for future multinational relief 
operations and seek to assist local populations in the Philippines. 
More information on the exercise for posts' use and background will 
be forthcoming. 
 
¶4. (U) ARF members were also updated on Australia's latest version of 
the ARF Strategic Guidance for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster 
Relief and Indonesia's briefing on the ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance 
(AHA) Center.  In addition, Indonesia chaired a separate group, 
titled Shepherds on Disaster Relief, focused on coordinating ARF's 
growing efforts in regional disaster preparedness. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
KOREA, BURMA AND OTHER SECURITY ISSUES DISCUSSED 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
-- (U) Singapore Deputy Permanent Secretary Peter Ho chaired a 
focused and organized discussion of critical security issues facing 
the ARF region.  This portion of the discussion was dominated by 
ARF's non-ASEAN members, with only a few ASEAN countries making 
limited interventions on these issues.  Notes on the interventions of 
selected delegations are below in para 8. 
 
¶5. (U) KOREAN PENNINSULA: In part due to the absence of the DPRK, 
most delegations focused on recent, worrisome steps taken by the DPRK 
in reversing its disablement steps at Yongbyon.  All stressed that 
the peaceful resolution of the DPRK nuclear issue was vital to 
regional security.  They urged that the Six-Party Talks move forward 
through resumption and completion of the disablement process in 
cooperation with the IAEA inspection arrangements and early 
establishment of an effective verification mechanism.  This includes 
fulfillment of all obligations under the agreements reached in the 
Six-Party Talks.  Japan and Australia spoke to their concerns over 
 
STATE 00112442  002 OF 005 
 
 
the abductions issue.  ROK briefly touched on inter-Korean relations. 
 
¶6. (U) BURMA: Following a lengthy presentation by Burma on its 
political and humanitarian situation, delegations focused on the need 
for genuine political dialogue within Burma.  Some praised the recent 
release of Burmese political prisoners while others stressed the 
importance of legitimately free and fair 2010 elections.  Many 
Western, like-minded countries continued to press Burma for greater 
cooperation with UN Special Envoy Gambari and the international 
community.  ASEAN was commended for its leadership role in Cyclone 
Nargis relief while no delegations complained of the lack of access 
during the early phases of relief efforts. 
 
¶7. (U) IRAN, AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, CLIMATE CHANGE, SINO-JAPANESE 
RELATIONS: With the support of other delegations, the United States 
expressed serious concern about Iran's continued rejection of 
repeated P5 plus 1 offers.  Some delegations pressed the need for 
greater reconstruction assistance and stability in Afghanistan. 
Pakistan spoke to the recent, unfortunate terrorist attacks in 
Islamabad while also defending its efforts in the FATA region and 
border relationship with Afghanistan.  Canada and India both urged 
more cooperative relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan.  A few 
countries spoke to the security implications of climate change.  A 
number of delegations also noted the unique role ARF can play in 
transnational and non-traditional security issues, including 
terrorism. 
 
¶8. (U) NOTES ON THE INTERVENTIONS OF SELECTED DELEGATIONS: 
 
AUSTRALIA: 
--Remains concerned about DPRK suspension of disablement and IAEA and 
noted the need for progress on the abductions issue. 
--Noted the need for additional releases of political prisoners. 
--Appreciated ASEAN's role in facilitating access by the humanitarian 
community during Nargis. 
--Appreciated Pakistan's remarks about the need for greater attention 
its border region and Afghanistan. 
--Pleased by recent terrorist successes in Southeast Asia, but 
disappointed by the breakdown of peace talks in Philippines. 
--Briefed ARF on its proposal for an International Commission on 
Nonproliferation and Disarmament. 
 
BURMA: 
--Noted that each country has "special and unique" conditions that 
differentiate it from others and the Burma's own political issues are 
complex and unique. 
--Defended the legitimacy of its March 2007 referendum as in line 
with Roadmap and cited the 92.48% approval rating from its people for 
the new constitution. 
--Said that all "legitimate persons" will participate in the Roadmap 
steps. 
--Praised the access given by the regime to recent UN visitors. 
--Appreciated the assistance from the international community in 
Nargis relief efforts. 
--Concluded by saying that "problems disappear when we talk to each 
other not about each other." 
 
CANADA: 
--Mentioned it had approached ASEAN members on ways forward with 
Burma. 
--Remains concerned 2010 elections will not be free and fair. 
--Please that some prisoners were released, but more should be 
released included Aung San Suu Kyi. 
--Remains committed to continue its help to Pakistan with its border 
region. 
--Noted the need for Pakistan to develop a cooperative and 
constructive relationship with Afghanistan. 
--Pressed for DPRK agreement on a verification mechanism. 
 
CHINA: 
--Hoped that the international community would continue to provide 
humanitarian assistance to Burma. 
--Said the political conditions in Burma require patience and 
continued support for the UN and Gambari. 
--Said that Sino-Japanese relations remain positive and are "standing 
at a historical point." 
--Noted that, as Chair, the Six Party process has experienced 
difficulties and urged all parties to show flexibility. 
 
EU: 
--Joined the United States in commending ASEAN's role in Nargis 
relief efforts. 
--Burma/Myanmar issue is high on the EU prioritylist and the EU will 
maintain its two-track approach of sanctions and positive engagement. 
--Said that only genuine dialogue could lead to democratization and 
Burma should release more political prisoners. 
--Welcomed the Group of Friends meeting at the UN. 
--Hoped for more support for the EU Special Envoy Fassino and noted 
he will visit a number of ARF capitals. 
 
STATE 00112442  003 OF 005 
 
 
--Said that "the Burmese people must know that the EU is on their 
side." 
--Noted the EU's recent deployment of a police mission to Afghanistan. 
--Stressed EU view that widespread agreement exists on the security 
threats from climate change. 
--Noted ongoing, internal EU discussions on a proposal for greater 
food and development assistance to Asia. 
--Expressed concern about the DPRK's removal of seals and 
surveillance equipment and remains worried about dire humanitarian 
situation. 
--EU noted their readiness to contribute to easing humanitarian 
problems in North Korea and is ready to consider "stepping up" its 
engagement and humanitarian assistance with DPRK if positive steps 
are taken in the Six Party Talks. 
 
INDIA: 
--Noted the security situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating. 
--Noted the need for full implementation of the UN CT Convention. 
 
JAPAN: 
--Hoped for progress from A/S Hill's trip to Pyongyang. 
--Regretted postponement of bilateral 6pt consultations due to DPRK 
position on abduction issues. 
--Said there will be no negative changes in China-Japan relations 
under Aso. 
--Pressed for positive steps by the international community while 
Myanmar takes its own steps; pleased by recent release of prisoners, 
but more is needed; noted the need for continued support for Gambari. 
--Remains committed to Afghan reconstruction with a $550m pledge. 
--Remains "seriously concerned" about the Iran nuclear issue. 
--Hopes to make use of bilateral channel with Iran. 
--Briefed ARF on Japan's Self-Defense Forces (SDF) involvement in 
support operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. 
 
LAOS: 
--Welcomed concrete progress on implementation of decisions reached 
by 6pt. 
--Called on "concerned party" to move forward to denuclearize 
Penninsula and congratulated China on its role in the Six Party 
process. 
 
MONGOLIA: 
--Noted its support for a Northeast Asian multilateral security 
cooperation forum. 
 
NEW ZEALAND: 
--Remains concerned about political developments in Fiji and pointed 
to the need for int'l pressure and a return to rule of law. 
--Noted the PIF communiqu and roadmap for Fijian democracy and is 
concerned by the lack of progress toward elections. 
 
PAKISTAN: 
--Said it is working on its border issues with Afghanistan and is 
stabilizing the FATA region through assistance, passport and border 
controls (biometrics, monitoring, vehicles, etc.) in border area. 
--Noted the tragedy from the September 30 terrorist attacks in 
Islamabad. 
--Said that terrorists are trying to target the political leadership 
to destabilize Pakistan adding that this trend is a reaction to the 
pressure from Pakistani security services in the border region. 
--Noted Pakistan's major sacrifices in border region and the death of 
1,200 of its soldiers. 
--Said that a comprehensive CT strategy is needed that goes beyond a 
military strategy. 
--Explained that tribal FATA leaders are recognizing the destruction 
from Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants.  "They have decided to go after 
the terrorists and drive them out...and they have developed ownership 
of the problem." 
--Said greater cooperation is needed between ISAF, Pakistan, and 
Afghanistan. 
--Urged that more cooperation is needed from the Afghan side due its 
long, porous border. 
 
ROK: 
--Noted the need to prevent the DPRK's reversal of disablement steps 
taken at Yongbyon and hoped A/S Hill's visit to Pyongyang would 
ensure that verification steps are taken and welcomed Hill's active 
consultations with other Six Parties. 
--Said inter-Korean relations in "deadlock" due to DPRK refusal of 
dialogue. Added that the ROK is striving to achieve a more balanced 
and normalized relationship with DPRK. 
--Noted that the DPRK has yet to respond to ROK's fifty tons of corn 
food aid. ROK may consider a World Food Program role for its 
distribution. 
--Said the ROK is pursuing low-carbon growth and other initiatives in 
response to climate change, including a proposal for an East Asia 
Climate Change Partnership (US$200m over 5 years to help developing 
countries counter the effects of climate change). 
--Stressed that the international climate change discussions should 
 
STATE 00112442  004 OF 005 
 
 
produce an ambitious climate change regime by 2009. 
 
UNITED STATES: 
--Said we remain committed to the Six Party Talks Joint Statement, 
recent DPRK steps to reverse disablement steps run counter to Six 
Party expectations, U.S. continues to seek agreement on verification 
protocol on an "action for action" basis. 
--A/S Hill's recent visit to Pyongyang discussed verification 
measures, is continuing consultations with other Six Party members, 
and the United States remains committed to the Six Party process. 
--Commended ASEAN unity and leadership in Nargis relief and 
encouraged ASEAN to build upon its successes to address the root 
causes of Burma's problems. 
--Burma's Roadmap is discredited as a constitutional referendum and 
will not solve Burma's problems. 
--Noted that we remain interested in seeing Burma become a prosperous 
nation with democracy, economy, and rule of law that Burmese people 
deserve. 
--Said we recognize ASEAN's challenges with Burma and called for 
persistence. 
--Stressed that Iran's repeated rejection of the P5 plus 1's offers 
remains a serious concern for the region and the international 
community. 
--Congratulated ASEAN on its positive steps to ratify its Charter. 
--Noted the particular role for ARF in transnational security 
efforts. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
REMAINING INSTITUTIONAL MATTERS AND INITIATIVES 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶9. (U) Throughout the ISG, the following issues were also discussed: 
 
--COUNTER TERRORISM AND TRANSNATIONAL CRIME (CTTC) WORKPLAN: USDEL 
updated ARF on the latest draft of the CTTC Workplan meant to 
organize and manage ARF's efforts in cybersecurity, bioterrorism and 
illicit drugs.  ARF countries have been asked to contribute project 
ideas to the workplan for implementation in the coming months and 
years.  However, few delegations have yet engaged in the modalities 
of the workplan and submitting project ideas.  Reflecting this 
dynamic, the United States (as the drafter of the CTTC Workplan) will 
soon distribute a revised draft. 
 
--DEFENSE OFFICIALS DIALOGUE: ARF defense officials met on October 8. 
 They discussed the transnational threat of terrorism and reiterated 
the importance of increased cooperation in peacekeeping. ARF Members 
shared views on current challenges being faced by ARF defense 
establishments and discussed how they can add further value to the 
ARF process. The USG was represented by Capt. David Chase of the 
Joint Staff, Southeast Asia Desk. 
 
--ARF WORKING METHODS: The ASEAN Secretariat's ARF Unit distributed a 
paper for comment about improving ARF's institutional procedures in a 
number of areas including decision-making, consolidating ARF's 
meetings, press relations, 
 
--AUSTRALIA BRIEFING ON NONPROLIFERATION COMMISION: Australia briefed 
ARF on its proposal for an International Commission on 
Nonproliferation and Disarmament. 
 
--VIRTUAL MEETING OF CYBERSECURITY EXPERTS: ROK updated ARF on the 
latest draft and modalities for its virtual meeting of cybersecurity 
experts. 
 
--TRACK TWO BRIEFING: The Council for Security Cooperation in the 
Asia-Pacific (CSCAP) and other non-governmental representatives 
briefed ARF on their latest security cooperation efforts and offer of 
assistance to ARF for their services. 
 
¶10.  UPCOMING ARF ACTIVITIES: 
--12th ARF Heads of Defense Universities Meeting (HDUCIM), Islamabad, 
21-23 October 2008 [Pakistan] 
--3rd ARF EEPs Meeting, Beijing, 13-15 November 2008 [co-chairs: 
China, Vietnam] 
--ARF Conference on Terrorism and the Internet, Bali, Indonesia, 6-8 
November 2008 [co-chairs: Australia, Indonesia] 
--Follow-up event to the Chennai Maritime Security Training 
Programme, India, 17-22 November 2008 [India] 
--8th ARF Inter-Sessional Meeting (ISM) on Disaster Relief, Banda 
Aceh, Indonesia, tentatively 5-6 December 2008 [co-chairs: Indonesia, 
EU] 
--ARF Workshop on Anti-Money Laundering, Kuala Lumpur, 2008 
[co-chairs: Malaysia, tbc] 
--Inaugural ARF Inter-Sessional Meeting (ISM) on Maritime Security, 
in Surabaya/Medan, Indonesia, 12-13 February 2009 [co-chairs: 
Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand] 
--ARF Seminar on Measures to enhance Maritime Security, TBA, first 
half of 2009 [co-chairs: EU, Indonesia] 
 
STATE 00112442  005 OF 005 
 
 
--1st Inter-Sessional Meeting (ISM) on Non-Proliferation and 
Disarmament, TBA, first half of 2009 [co-chairs: US, China, 
Singapore] 
--7th ARF ISM on Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Crime, Vietnam, 
first half of 2009 [co-chairs: Bangladesh, ROK, Vietnam] 
--ARF Inter-Sessional Support Group Meeting on Confidence Building 
Measures and Preventive Diplomacy (ISG on CBMs and PD), ROK, April 
2009 [co-chairs: ROK, Singapore] 
--Peacekeeping Course for ARF Member Countries, New Delhi, 18-22 May 
2009 [co-chairs: India, tbc] 
--ARF Seminar on Laws and Regulations on Disaster Relief Cooperation, 
Beijing, May 2009 [co-chairs: China, tbc] 
--ARF Voluntary Demonstration of Response on Disaster Relief, the 
Philippines, May 4-8, 2009 with Jan 19-23 and March 9-13 planning 
events [co-chairs: US, Philippines] 
--ARF Senior Officials' Meeting (SOM), Thailand, May 2009 [Thailand] 
--16th ASEAN Regional Forum Ministerial, Thailand, July 2009 
[Thailand] 
--ARF Seminar on the Law of the Sea Convention, the Philippines, TBA 
[co-chairs: Philippines, EU] 
--3rd ARF Peacekeeping Experts' Meeting, TBA [co-chairs: Japan, tbc] 
--ARF Seminar on International Security Implications of 
Climate-related events and trends, TBA, first part of 2009 
[co-chairs: EU, Cambodia] 
--ARF Workshop on Laboratory Bio-Safety and Bio-Security, TBA, first 
half 2009 [co-chairs: US, tbc] 
 
¶11. (U) POC: The POC for any questions or follow-up is EAP/RSP Kevin 
Sheives (sheiveskw@state.gov, 202-647-1217).  This report and other 
background information on ARF and U.S. participation in ARF can be 
found at: http://eap.state.gov/EAPOffices/RSP/ARF.cfm 
 
¶12. (SBU) COMMENT: For the U.S., the two most important initiatives 
in the coming year are producing a bold and clear Vision Statement 
and a successful ARF Disaster Relief Exercise.  Many ARF members, 
especially typically hesitant members, seem unprepared to fully 
engage on the development of the ARF Vision Statement, a crucial 
exercise for the future of ARF in today's rapidly evolving regional 
architecture.  ARF members were largely interested in the ARF 
Disaster Relief Exercise and were pleased to receive exercise 
details.  Targeted engagement with key ARF members over the coming 
months on both of these initiatives will remain critical for both 
U.S. efforts in ARF and the future of ARF itself. 
RICE