VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSG #0901/01 2812135
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 072135Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3787
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0447
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1797
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ OCT LIMA 5713
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 1926
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000901 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR DAS BRIAN O'NEILL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2018 
TAGS: ECON EFIN IDB PGOV PREL CI
SUBJECT: CHILEAN RIGHT WING STILL LUKEWARM ON PINERA IN 
2009; EXPECTS MODEST GAINS IN 2008 MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 
 
REF: SANTIAGO 893 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul E. Simons for reasons 1.4 (b and d). 
 
------ 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) The doctrinaire wing of the center-right Alianza 
remains undecided as to whether it will give its support in 
2009 to the presidential ambition of the opposition 
coalition's front-running but more moderate Sebastian Pinera. 
 The results of the October 2008 municipal elections, as well 
as whether the governing Concertacion coalition runs multiple 
presidential candidates, will help shape its decision.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Ambassador and E/Pol Counselor met October 6 
with Senator Juan Antonio Coloma, president of the Union 
Democrata Independiente (UDI), one of two parties (the other 
being the Renovacion Nacional) that make up the center-right 
Alianza opposition.  The UDI is considered the more 
doctrinaire of the two parties but, as Coloma noted, the UDI 
has had to move from seeking to influence policy through 
standing on ideological principle to the practical reality of 
adopting positions which can win elections.  Coloma was 
joined by UDI SecGen Senator Victor Perez. 
 
----------------------------- 
A Shifting Electoral Panorama 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Coloma believes that the Alianza can cut into the 
Concertacion's 2004 municipal election edge of 10 percentage 
points by "two or three points," a modest gain that would 
augur well for the 2009 presidential elections.  As 
importantly, the Alianza would do well in so-called 
"emblematic" municipal races such as for mayor of central 
Santiago, where the Alianza's populist Pablo Zalaquet is neck 
and neck with the Concertacion's Jaime Ravinet, a former 
defense minister (and mayor of Santiago).  A strong showing 
for the Alianza in the municipals would signal as well the 
continued weakening of the Democracia Cristano (DC), the 
"right wing" of the center-left Concertacion; Coloma 
predicted the DC would drop to being the third largest party 
nationwide. 
 
¶4. (C) Coloma said press reports over the previous weekend, 
wherein former president Ricardo Lagos had declared he would 
not seek the presidency in 2009 where not as definitive as 
they seemed.  "All ex-presidents want to return to power and 
Lagos is no different."  Lagos believes "he is the 
Concertacion" and is concerned that the party's reputation - 
and so his - have suffered over issues such as the 
Transantiago mass transit debacle.  Coloma predicted Lagos 
may not be a candidate "today" but will accept should 
Concertacion ask him next year. 
 
¶5. (C) Asked whether the UDI would support the RN's Pinera as 
the sole Alianza candidate for president in 2009 (Pinera is 
far and away the leading candidate in all polls), Coloma said 
the UDI would be "pragmatic."  It was yet too early to make 
that determination.  If the Alianza did badly in the 
municipals (i.e., loses by 10 or more points) then support 
for Pinera would have to be reevaluated.  Likewise, if the 
Concertacion puts up multiple candidates (i.e, Lagos or OAS 
SecGen Jose Manuel Insulza from the Socialist party or former 
president Eduardo Frei or Soledad Alvear (both of the DC)) 
then the Alianza may do so as well.  In all events, Coloma 
continued, we are "not obsessed" with the question of whether 
to back Pinera and are not opposed to doing so if 
circumstances warrant it.  (Note:  Another UDI heavyweight, 
Senator Pablo Longuiera, declared the very next day that the 
RN's recent announcement to run its popular SecGen, Lily 
Perez, for a Senate seat (against Coloma) in 2009 was a 
virtual declaration of war, and would almost guarantee that 
UDI would run its own presidential candidate.  End note). 
 
------------ 
Other Issues 
------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Coloma and the Ambassador touched on several other 
matters, including: 
 
 
-- IDB financing of Transantiago:  Coloma and Perez noted 
that without "substantial redesign" of the troubled 
Transantiago mass transit reform plan, the Senate is unlikely 
to approve new funding for the system.  Coloma said as well 
that there is "unhappiness" over the manner in which the 
IDB's USD 400 million dollar loan to the GOC for Transantiago 
was handled.  Chile's Supreme Court ruled the loan 
inconstitutional; moreover, given that it was public 
knowledge the Congress was opposed to a bailout, the loan 
appears like "interference" in an internal domestic dispute. 
 
-- Bolivian Crisis: Coloma expressed his concern over the 
development of an "axis of countries" which are putting into 
place "failed policies of the past."  Chavez's model was 
outdated even when he was proposing it ten years ago.  The 
Ambassador noted that Chile's institutions are strong and 
that we are working closely with the GOC to find ways to 
promote the Chilean model in the region. 
 
-- Policies of an Alianza Government:  In response to the 
Ambassador's query, Coloma said the priorities of an 
Alianza-led government would be to improve security and 
eliminate delinquency, implement educational reform, 
encourage innovation and development of new technologies, and 
foster the private sector.  "We must get away from the notion 
that ideas germinate (solely) in goverment." 
 
-- IPR:  The Ambassador stressed the Embassy would continue 
to press the GOC to improve its record on IPR and expressed 
his hope Coloma could help move along proposed new copyright 
legislation now before the Congress. 
 
-- ICC:  Coloma said he remains opposed to the very concept 
of an International Criminal Court - "I don't trust 
international law" - and hinted he would work to keep the 
GOC's efforts to ratify the Rome Treaty bottled up in the 
Senate. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (C)  The Alianza's historical inability to defeat the 
Concertacion in national elections stems at least in part 
from the center-right's failure to unify enthusiastically 
behind a single candidate.  While Coloma did not raise the 
fact that the RN is now targeting his seat, his lukewarm 
support for Pinera couldn't have been more obvious.  Still, 
with the UDI having nobody in the wings that registers even 
in the low single digits, Pinera remains the Alianza's best 
and probably only hope for ending the Concertacion's twenty 
year hold on power, a fact the UDI may eventually, if 
reluctantly, come around to accepting.  End comment. 
SIMONS