VZCZCXRO7907
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHPW #0496/01 3031106
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 291106Z OCT 08
FM AMCONSUL PESHAWAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7691
INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD IMMEDIATE 4469
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI IMMEDIATE 1657
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE IMMEDIATE 1650
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 1287
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI IMMEDIATE 0934
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 0556
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE IMMEDIATE 0604
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 0557
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 0692
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA IMMEDIATE 0646
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUMICEA/USSOCOM INTEL OPS CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 4735

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PESHAWAR 000496 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  10/29/2018 
TAGS: PTER MOPS PGOV PINR PK
SUBJECT: BOUCHER MEETS NORTHWEST FRONTIER GOVERNOR GHANI IN PESHAWAR 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, Peshawar, 
Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (a), (b), (d) 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Northwest Frontier Province Governor Owais Ghani told 
Assistant Secretary Richard A. Boucher during an October 20 
visit to his office in Peshawar that the situation in the 
Federally Administered Tribal Area had "turned around" largely 
due to activation of public opinion.  The public sees the 
government as the "lesser evil" and expects development.  Ghani 
will lead the Pakistan delegation to the October 27-28 grand 
Jirga.  Ghani said the Lashkars have seen some recent success 
but they fatigue quickly.  The local taliban were not part of 
the discussion in the recent Kurram peace deal which threatens 
its durability.  Ghani said that North Waziristan is quiet but 
there were several factions working to gain the upper hand in 
the Mehsud tribe.  End summary. 
 
SITUATION HAS TURNED AROUND? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Ghani said during an October 20 meeting with Assistant 
Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher in 
Peshawar that the situation in the Federally Administered Tribal 
Areas had "turned around" in part due to the eight month 
strategy to have the people and the tribes take action.  He 
explained that "once you have broad popular support then things 
become easier," but this concept still needed to be sold to the 
settled areas and much of the Tribal Areas also.  He claimed 
that the threat to Peshawar had been pushed back, he had 
encouraged in-fighting amongst the miscreants and that he 
predicted significant improvement in the security situation in 
the next six to nine months. 
 
JIRGA BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND AFGANISTAN 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Ghani said that he would lead the Pakistan delegation at 
the joint mini-jirga, October 27-28.  He said the U.S. must be 
there but that the U.S. and NATO are not seen as neutral and for 
that purpose the Saudis could play a role behind the scenes. 
Boucher reinforced the need for the two sides to discuss denial 
of safe havens to al Qaeda and local militants while bringing 
development to tribal communities along the border.  Ghani said 
that he saw the fundamentals as an abandonment of violence, 
militants either killed or laying down their arms, and an 
acceptance of the government.  Ghani concluded by asking that 
the "U.S. not weaken us versus Afghanistan so we can help when 
it is time." 
 
BAJAUR ACTION and ORAKZAI AGENCY 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Ghani explained that while the timing of operations was 
not always the government's, they had let them unfold, and 
according to Frontier Corps "conservative estimates" had killed 
1,800 miscreants while army intelligence estimates listed 2,000 
of the enemy killed in the Bajaur operation thus far.  He said 
that fighters coming across the Afghanistan border into Pakistan 
were 200 the first week of the fighting followed by a group of 
400 and another 100 the week of October 13. Previously they had 
seen fighters entering from Afghanistan two or three at a time. 
Ghani claimed that these most recent crossing were made in 
pick-up trucks and had been seen by his contacts.  Concerning 
the situation in Orakzai, Ghani expected that the lashkar would 
"do the main job". 
 
ACTIVATION OF PUBLIC OPINION 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Ghani stated that every action that he has taken 
supported his overall strategy of having the populace and the 
tribes take action against the miscreants.  He asserted that 
this was why in one area there would be military action while in 
another dialogue.  Each time it was what was needed to garner 
public support.  He argued that the public will "only come out" 
against the local taliban when the government shows resolve.  He 
 
PESHAWAR 00000496  002 OF 003 
 
 
added that while the malik tribal leader system had been hurt as 
a result of targeted killing it was still functionally strong as 
the government appointed maliks who 
achieved a certain level of respect within their tribe.  He 
maintained that when the tribes decide that it is not profitable 
to have the local taliban in their areas they will "kick them 
out." 
 
WHY THE TRIBES WOULD BE ON THE GOVERNMENT SIDE? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6. (C) Assistant Secretary Boucher asked why the tribes would be 
on the government's side.  Ghani responded that the tribes had 
begun to see the government as the lesser of the evils and they 
expected the government to come in a "major way" with 
development.  He added that he had made rewarding good behavior 
of the tribes a policy and cited the change in location of a 
planned university to Khar, Bajaur agency as an example of 
rewarding areas that resist the local taliban.  Other 
development activities that he envisioned were: small dams, 
reclamation of land, forestry projects including fruit trees and 
electrical schemes. 
 
LASHKARS AND LEVYS 
------------------------ 
 
¶7. (C) Ghani stated the lashkars are having some success and is 
proud that although five months ago there were no tribal 
lashkars resisting the local taliban, now there are many.  He 
cautioned however that the lashkars are a force that "fatigues 
quickly" as they form based on the call of the tribal elders for 
a specific purpose with no pay or direct government support and 
disperse to resume their regular professions once the action is 
completed.  Ghani said he plans to take the best of the youth 
from the lashkar forces and create additional levys, perhaps as 
many as 15,000.  He explained that this additional force would 
be commanded by ex-army officers or sergeant majors.  The 
additional levies would be assigned by agency with vacancies 
allotted by the "grandfather system" that apportions positions 
by tribal shares.   He complained that in his recent meeting 
with Prime Minister Gilani he expected an indication of when the 
money would come for the additional levys but thus far he had 
"received nothing". 
 
 
KURRAM AND THE SUNNI-SHIA PROBLEM 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Governor Ghani addressed the recent peace deal between 
the Shia and Sunni groups in Kurram.  He stated that the local 
taliban were not parties to the discussion and thus the peace 
would likely be short lived.  He recounted a Shia threat to go 
to NATO forces to ask them to come in to the Pakistan agency of 
Kurram should the Government of Pakistan fail to act on their 
behalf.  Ghani said that in certain cases it was best to let the 
youth fight and then "tire of it" which would lead to 
negotiations similar to the recent agreement in Kurram. 
 
NORTH/SOUTH WAZIRISTAN, BAITULLAH MESHUD AND HAQQANI 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶9. (C) Responding to Assistant Secretary Boucher's query as to 
who was in charge of the Mehsud tribe of South Waziristan, Ghani 
explained that Baitullah Meshud was not dead but is a diabetic, 
being treated by doctors daily, is on dialysis and there perhaps 
was a "war of succession" within the Mehsud tribe that the 
governor would try to influence.  He said that South Waziristan 
is quiet but there were several factions working to gain the 
upper hand in the Mehsud tribe.  Governor Ghani added that he 
wants to tie down the tribes in North and South Waziristan based 
on tradition as there was no better system available for use in 
those two agencies.  Responding to Boucher's statement that 
Mehsud was still training suicide bombers, Ghani said that 
tribal agreements bind both sides of the border. 
 
¶10. (U) This cable has been cleared with Assistant Secretary 
 
PESHAWAR 00000496  003 OF 003 
 
 
Boucher. 
TRACY