VZCZCXRO0315
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHYG
DE RUEHMZ #0354/01 3051348
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 311348Z OCT 08
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4546
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000354 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV INRB GM
SUBJECT:  GERMANY/BAVARIAN POLITICS: THE ASCENSION OF MINISTER 
PRESIDENT HORST SEEHOFER 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Politically resilient Horst Seehofer, elected Christian 
Social Union (CSU) chairman on October 25 and Bavarian Minister 
President on October 27, now has the challenging task of 
resurrecting his much-weakened party in the months leading up the 
September 27, 2009 Bundestag elections.  Nobody in the CSU has been 
more identified with the social issues portfolio of the CSU.  His 
critics have characterized him as the "ninth minister of the Social 
Democratic Party (SPD)" in Chancellor Merkel's federal cabinet.  His 
style is populist, charismatic, and maverick.  Detailed biographic 
data follow in paragraph 6.  An analysis of Seehofer's tenure as 
Agriculture Minister reported Septel.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The CSU will look to reform its message and presentation 
in order to resonate with a 21st century Bavaria, reassert its 
supremacy at home, and restore its influence on the national stage. 
The party has put its hopes in Horst Seehofer.  For over twenty 
years, Seehofer held a variety of political offices in Bonn and 
Berlin, and he comes with political baggage.  Since a close brush 
with death in 2002 from the life-threatening illness myocarditis, he 
has more than once re-emerged after being all but written-off as a 
political player.  Sources close to Chancellor Merkel have told us 
that he annoys her and that she has only tolerated his serving as 
her Federal Agriculture Minister since former Minister President 
Edmund Stoiber insisted Seehofer get the job in 2005.  Revelations 
in 2007 of an extramarital affair in Berlin -- replete with baby -- 
deeply offended the Catholic sensibilities and leadership of the 
CSU, but it has turned out that the party rank-and-file remained 
loyal.  Today, Seehofer owes his sudden comeback, unthinkable before 
the Bavarian state election on September 28, to their despair. 
Deeply traumatized by the loss of its half-century absolute majority 
in Bavaria, the CSU cast about for a new leader and -- rather 
quickly -- found it in him. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Seehofer's Positions: Vague and Contradictory 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Seehofer can claim only modest achievements as Federal 
Agriculture Minister, the post from which he just resigned. 
(Analyzed in more detail SEPTEL.)  He was able to keep his name in 
the press and used his position to rehabilitate his image.  For 
example, when he assumed office, he was a public supporter of 
genetically engineered crops.  However, when protests by GreenPeace 
and organic farmers drew widespread attention, he reversed his 
public stance on the issue, sensing political opportunities.  His 
rhetorical skills and his readiness to listen won him much support 
in the public arena.  (Note: As Minister-President of Bavaria he is 
legally prohibited from holding a national ministerial position. 
End note.) 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
A Jolly Soul, A Good Talker, A Self-Promoter 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Seehofer is a natural politician, performing well on talk 
shows as well as in beer tents.  At the same time he has been 
accused of being a loner, an egotist and an opportunist.  He has 
never left any doubt about his interest in becoming party chairman, 
but it is likely that not even Seehofer himself ever dreamed of 
becoming CSU party chairman and Minister President simultaneously, 
following in the footsteps of Franz Josef Strauss and Edmund 
Stoiber. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Seehofer still has work to do to convince his critics, who 
took a leap of faith electing him party chairman with 90 percent of 
the vote and Minister President with only four dissenting votes from 
the CSU and FDP coalition.  He is a Berlin import who insists on his 
independence and rejects old boys' networks.  Political observers 
are eagerly waiting for his first government declaration on November 
¶13.  Two important challenges lie ahead - a good result in the 
European Parliament elections in June 2009 and a return to old CSU 
strength in the national elections in September 2009.  This is a 
precondition for a replacement of the current grand coalition with a 
CDU/CSU/FDP coalition.  End Comment. 
 
------------------------ 
Biographical Information 
 
MUNICH 00000354  002 OF 002 
 
 
------------------------ 
 
¶6.  Horst Seehofer is the first Bavarian Minister-President without 
a university degree.  He is a graduate of the Bayerischen 
Verwaltungsschule (Bavarian School of Administration) in public 
management.  Seehofer was born July 4, 1949, the son of a truck 
driver/construction worker in Ingolstadt, a city at Bavaria's 
center, part of the district of Upper Bavaria but close to 
Franconia.  He first entered the Bundestag in 1980; in 1986, CSU 
chairman Theo Waigel engaged him as secretary in the CDU/CSU-FDP 
coalition talks.  From 1983 to 1989 he was spokesman for social 
affairs of the CSU caucus in Bonn.  From 1989 to 1992, he served as 
Parliamentary State Secretary at the Ministry for Labor and Social 
Affairs.  On May 6, 1992, Chancellor Helmut Kohl nominated him 
Federal Minister for Health, a position he held until 1998.  In this 
capacity, he started a number of reform projects, such as higher 
contributions for patients to health carriers as well as budget cuts 
for medical doctors and hospitals.  Although his opponents had to 
concede he was one of the few experts on the German health system, 
medical doctors still resent his rough savings course.  Open 
opposition to Angela Merkel's idea of a "per capita flat rate" in 
2003 cost him the position as deputy CDU/CSU caucus chairman in 
Berlin.  In 2005, he gave up a new job with the so-called "VdK" (an 
interest group for patients, handicapped, and retirees) to become 
Federal Minister of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection. 
 
Seehofer was CSU deputy party chairman from 1994 until being elected 
Chairman last week. 
 
¶7. (U) Seehofer is married to his second wife and has three grown 
children.  He also has a baby girl from an extramarital affair who 
was born in 2007.  He is a model-train enthusiast. 
 
¶8.  (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with 
Embassy Berlin. 
 
¶9.  (U) Track previous reporting from Munich at 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. 
 
Crockart