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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000349 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS TO DEPT OF AGRICULTURE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018 
TAGS: PGOV INRB GM
SUBJECT: GERMANY/BAVARIAN POLITICS:  NEW BAVARIAN POLITICS 
AFFECTS MUNICH AND BERLIN 
 
REF: A. MUNICH 331 
     ¶B. MUNICH 322 
     ¶C. MUNICH 319 
 
Classified By: Acting Consul General Kathryn Crockart for reasons 1.4 ( 
b) and (d) 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) Horst Seehofer (Christian Social Union - CSU) became 
Bavaria's new Minister President October 27, leaving his 
position as Federal Agriculture Minister to lead the first 
Bavarian coalition in 46 years.  CSU leadership figures 
promised a more independent CSU, which could present 
challenges to Chancellor Merkel.  Bundestag member 
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said the CSU is ready to warn its 
sister Christian Democratic Party (CDU) that the CSU "wants 
to be more than a lousy copy of the CDU."  Seehofer told his 
party cohorts in Munich that he was not ready to sacrifice 
CSU principles on the altar of a grand coalition in Berlin 
and warned about "any exaggerated readiness for compromise." 
Closer to home, the coalition pact in Bavaria reflects real 
CSU compromises with the FDP, especially on citizens' rights 
to privacy, integration, and education.  Seehofer's election 
is seen as a needed changing of the guard in Munich designed 
to help the CSU remain a national force in German politics 
but it falls short of a generational change.  His successor 
as Federal Agriculture Minister is expected to be announced 
by the end of the week and could lead to a minor reshuffle in 
the Federal Cabinet.  Zu Guttenberg may be a candidate to 
replace Seehofer in the federal cabinet.  End Summary. 
 
Exit Good Old Boys and Good Riddance 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Horst Seehofer (59) was elected new CSU party chairman 
October 26 with 90.3 percent of the vote and, the next day, 
the Bavarian Landtag elected him as Minister President, with 
104 out of 184 votes.  He said the current CSU/FDP coalition 
is merely an episode on the CSU's way back to an absolute 
majority in five years.  He insisted that voters gave the CSU 
a clear mandate even if they required them to rule in a 
coalition and he dismissed competition from the SPD (Social 
Democratic Party of Germany) as negligible.  The CSU would 
have to dry up support for the FDP and the Independents by 
adopting their issues wherever possible, he suggested.  He is 
expected to present his new cabinet on October 30 and the 
public is hoping to see new, younger and more female faces. 
 
¶3.  (C) Seehofer faces the major challenge of reorienting a 
weakened CSU better to reflect Bavaria's modern demographics. 
 A mid-ranking civil servant at the Ministry of Environment 
assessed to Poloff October 27 that the CSU "had lost touch 
with the voters and especially the women in Bavaria," adding 
that "it was time for the good-old-boys to go."   The CSU has 
a medium-term challenge to regroup in time to win seats in 
the June 2009 European Parliament elections (for which the 
CSU must win 5 percent of the national vote).  Failure in the 
EP elections could strengthen the insular tendencies of the 
CSU and complicate the CDU-CSU partnership.  At the same 
time, the FDP will likely benefit from its new regional 
prominence and have better chances both in the European 
Parliament and national elections in the Summer of 2009. 
 
CSU to Angela Merkel: No More Mister Nice Guy 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Bundestag Representative Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg 
(CSU), one of those fresh faces and leader of the foreign 
policy committee of the CSU at the national level, confirmed 
this movement for change. He said that the CSU should strive 
to raise conservative topics and themes that the CDU cannot 
and the CSU should take care to do so with its 
"characteristic reasonableness."  Echoing this sentiment, 
Seehofer has said he would, in his new capacity, remain very 
active in Berlin.  The CSU rank and file and local 
commentators understood his statement as a promise to sharpen 
the CSU profile to the detriment of the sister party CDU. 
 
¶5.  (C) Some Consulate contacts see the Bavarian CSU/FDP 
coalition as a test-run for the 2009 national elections that 
 
MUNICH 00000349  002 OF 002 
 
 
could complicate the work of the federal Grand Coalition in 
the short term.  Inheritance tax reform is one issue where 
the FDP and CSU agree and this could cause problems for the 
national Grand Coalition.  Another is health reform.  The CSU 
and FDP would push for a Bundesrat initiative to change the 
parameters of the new health fund next year should it 
disproportionately burden Bavaria.  At the same time, 
Seehofer has to be careful since he depends on help from 
Berlin to overcome the BayernLB bank problems, which will 
also negatively affect planned popular investments in 
education, research and infrastructure. 
 
 
Bavaria Still Conservative, Now with Liberal Accents 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The conservative camp of CSU, FDP, and Independents 
(Freie Waehler) command almost a two-thirds majority in 
Bavaria, roughly equal to what the CSU had before it lost 17 
points in the recent elections.  Despite CSU insistence that 
they controlled the coalition negotiation process, the 
agreement had FDP finger prints all over it.  FDP members 
proudly told us they felt that the 43-percent party CSU had 
dealt with the 8-percent party FDP on equal terms, something 
inconceivable a few months earlier.  FDP state chairwoman 
Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, former Federal Minister 
of Justice and deputy chairperson of the national FDP caucus, 
was successful in getting the CSU to pay more attention to 
FDP civil rights issues.  The CSU conceded tighter 
restrictions on domestic surveillance, agreed to establish 
the position of an integration commissioner, and undertook to 
support education reforms. 
 
Replacing Seehofer in Berlin Could Affect Cabinet 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶7. (C) Seehofer's successor as Federal Agriculture Minister 
should be announced by the end of this week. Two names are 
currently on the table in Bavaria: Agriculture State 
Secretary Gert Mueller and Bundestag representative 
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, both CSU.  Guttenberg told the 
Consul General recently in private that he would prefer to 
remain in his current role dealing with foreign policy; he 
does not "see himself as a farmer."  However, people also 
tell us that the up-and-comer zu Guttenberg could be given 
the Ministerial portfolio as a way of grooming him for 
greater responsibilities in the future.  Finally, some 
speculate that the departure of Seehofer could open the way 
to a reshuffle of the Federal cabinet where the CSU could 
take a portfolio other than Agriculture. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (C) The CSU has lost its almost instinctive ability to 
overcome crisis and rejuvenate itself while remaining 
dominant.  Pragmatism rather than confidence led to the 
election of Horst Seehofer; he finished second in the race 
for the party chairmanship just last year.  His style will be 
in sharp contrast to the autocratic ways of former Minister 
President Edmund Stoiber, and modern Bavaria can only profit. 
 The change of government in Bavaria may increase the 
developing friction in Chancellor Merkel's Grand Coalition, 
as the CSU attempts to demonstrate its independence.  In the 
longer term, a successful CSU/FDP coalition government in 
Bavaria could teach the CSU the 21st century tricks it must 
have to fulfill its aspirations of relevance at the regional, 
national and European level. 
 
¶9. (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
¶10.  (U) Track reporting from Munich at 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. 
CROCKART