VZCZCXRO9969
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHMC #0473/01 2942236
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 202236Z OCT 08
FM AMCONSUL MONTERREY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3211
INFO RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO PRIORITY 4230
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHDC
RHMFIUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC
RUPEUSA/HQ NORTHCOM
RUEHMC/AMCONSUL MONTERREY 8724

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MONTERREY 000473 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KCRM PGOV ECON SNAR MX
SUBJECT: SENSE OF GLOOM PERVADES NUEVO LEON PUBLIC AND PRIVATE 
SECTOR 
 
REF: A) MONTERREY 438  B) 2007 MONTERREY 576 C) MONTERREY 459 
 
MONTERREY 00000473  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.      (U)   This cable is the first in a two-part series. 
This first part deals with public perceptions of the worsening 
security situation while the second will look at the lagging 
economy. 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Summary.  The October 11 gunshot/grenade attack 
against the U.S. Consulate only deepened existing public gloom 
about the security situation in Nuevo Leon.  Recent public 
surveys and public and private statements by private industry 
and government officials reveal deep concern about narcotics 
violence, kidnappings and corruption.  The national leader of 
the Mexican Chamber of Commerce Coparmex publicly called on 
Nuevo Leon Governor Jose Natividad Gonzalez Paras to focus on 
security rather than cultural festivals, and also inveighed 
against a corrupt criminal justice system.  For his part, 
Governor Gonzalez Paras has warned against drug cartel money 
infiltrating political campaigns.  The sense of pessimism has 
caused some leaders to consider efforts to fundamentally change 
the prevailing culture.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Violence on the Increase 
 
 
 
¶3.  (U)  The people of Nuevo Leon had long seen Monterrey as a 
safe, business oriented city immune from many of the problems of 
corruption and violence common in Mexico.  However, given the 
rise in kidnappings and narcotics violence, this self image has 
shifted.  In a recent survey by the leading newspaper El Norte, 
68% of the public thought that security was the biggest problem 
facing the state, followed by corruption (16%).   There has been 
a large increase in the percentage of people who know someone 
who has been the victim of a crime, rising from 19% in 2005 to 
43% today, and 55% of the population fears being kidnapped. 
The public generally believes that drug cartels have infiltrated 
municipal police (88%), state police (86%), the federal PFP and 
AFI police (80%), but not the Mexican military (48%).  Moreover, 
only 49% of the people would file a complaint if they were the 
victim of a crime, a strong indicator of the lack of confidence 
in the police.  Finally, 80% of the people thought that there 
was  much or at least some corruption within the state 
government.   According to the press, the Nuevo Leon State 
Secretary for Public Security Aldo Fasci admitted that 50% of 
the municipal police forces have been infiltrated by narcotics 
traffickers.  Note.  This survey occurred before the October 11 
attack on the Consulate.  End Note. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (U)  Private industry representatives and civil society have 
criticized Nuevo Leon Governor Gonzalez Paras' lack of focus on 
pressing security issues.   On October 7 Ricardo Gonzalez Sada, 
the National President of the prominent business association 
Coparmex, strongly denounced Governor Gonzalez Paras while the 
Governor shared the podium with him.  Gonzalez Sada criticized 
the Governor for spending his time on cultural festivals, rather 
than focusing on the fundamental issue of security.  Gonzalez 
Sada also attacked the local Congress for engaging in partisan 
bickering rather than solving problems, and the government for 
its lack of response to a corruption complaint filed by a local 
NGO against Monterrey Mayor Madero.  Gonzalez Sada further 
denounced the justice system, arguing that it responds to 
special interests, and claimed that hiring the right law firm 
(with the good political connections) was more important than 
the merits of the case.   Governor Gonzalez Paras responded with 
his normal stump speech that these were the best of times in 
Nuevo Leon, citing infrastructure projects, employment creation 
and foreign direct investment.  Meanwhile, local leaders of the 
citizens march for security (reftel A) complained that the 
Governor only spends 1.2 hours per day on security, not 3 hours 
as suggested by Colombian security experts.   Another local NGO 
complained that the Governor has never made security a priority, 
echoing complaints made for years (see reftel B). 
 
 
 
Narco-Dollars Funding Campaigns? 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU)   Governor Gonzalez Paras used his October 14 annual 
 
MONTERREY 00000473  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
State of Nuevo Leon speech to warn against the risk of drug 
money infiltrating the 2009 political campaigns.   The Governor 
urged the parties to choose candidates who were clean and were 
committed to maintaining positive and progressive values. 
Ironically, a subsequent press report showed that the leaders of 
the local PAN, PRD and PT parties had measures in place to avoid 
the injection of narcotics money into the campaign, but the 
press was unable to reach the local leader of the Governor's own 
PRI party.   Although Poloff has heard repeated rumors that 
corruption is generating money for the Mayor of Monterrey's 
campaign for Governor, we have not heard specific allegations 
that drug money is flowing into the political campaigns. 
However, all analysts acknowledge that drug money could well 
enter political campaigns, and they do not have confidence that 
current electoral mechanisms can stop it. 
 
 
 
Desire for Fundamental Changes in the Political Culture; 
Getting to `Ya' 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U)  CG and Poloff have spoken to a number of prominent 
leaders who were shocked by the brazen attack on the Consulate 
(see Reftel C).  Mexican authorities and Consulate law 
enforcement personnel are still investigating the case, 
including the identity of the two assailants and the motive for 
the attack.  However, many people in Nuevo Leon thought that 
attacking the U.S. Consulate was a line that would never be 
crossed, and it greatly deepens their concern about their own 
security.   Those who have the means are openly talking about 
leaving Monterrey (and Mexico in general) to escape the 
violence. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (U)  As the people of Nuevo Leon begin to see their city 
differently, there have been several initiatives to change the 
fundamental culture.   The Washington-based  `Culture of 
Lawfulness' NGO, which provides role-playing values training, 
follows the example of Sicily, where civil society successful 
changed the social culture to ostracize the mafia.  This NGO is 
already providing training to state and local police cadets and 
is working on school programs.  Moreover, during a October 15-17 
NGO conference on educational philanthropy, there were 
additional requests to increase values inculcation through the 
Culture of Lawfulness program.    Similarly,  another NGO, 
Tierra Limpia seeks to transform Monterrey's culture through 
environmental cleanups, loosely following the `broken windows' 
theory of crime prevention that criminal behavior is less likely 
when citizens take care of public spaces.   Although obviously 
these initiatives will not reverse narcotics violence alone, 
they indicate a perspective that Monterrey is no longer safe, 
and that major societal changes must be made to regain security. 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU)   As one wealthy Monterrey real estate developer told 
us, what is necessary is for the region's business elite to 
collectively say `ya' (enough).    Under this scenario, when 
that occurred, the energetic private sector would step in and 
partner with government to improve the situation.   This is what 
happened when the Governor's prized 2007 cultural festival began 
to float adrift.  Whether a late entry on the part of the 
private sector would be able to reverse years of neglect of the 
public security apparatus is a debatable question. 
 
 
 
¶9.  (U)    See septel  (forthcoming) for an analysis of how the 
worsening economic situation. 
WILLIAMSON