P 311842Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3314
INFO WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS MANAGUA 001328 
 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN, NSC FOR FISK/GARCIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC KDEM NU
SUBJECT: NICARAGUA'S ELECTIONS (VIOLENTLY) HEATING UP 
 
REF: MANAGUA 1195 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: As Nicaragua's municipal elections draw 
closer, political violence is becoming a daily occurrence. 
The incidents are predominantly instigated by supporters of 
Daniel Ortega's Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) 
against members of the opposition Vamos con 
Eduardo-Constitutional Liberal Party (VCE-PLC).  This has 
resulted in leaders of the opposition parties, civil society, 
and religious groups expressing concern about "the climate of 
violence that the FSLN had unleashed throughout Nicaragua." 
These incidents are expected to continue during the last 10 
days leading up to the November 9 elections.  The bulk of 
opposition campaign activity is going forward unmolested. 
Nonetheless, the recent violence does not bode well for the 
environment on election day.  End Summary. 
 
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Acts of Violence 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Acts of political violence have been a regular 
occurrence since July, but as the November 9 municipal 
elections draw closer these incidents are becoming a daily 
occurrence.  So far this week (October 26-30) there have been 
five separate acts of violence, with the latest incident 
taking place October 30.  On that date FSLN supporters 
attacked a vehicle with VCE-PLC supporters, whom were 
returning from a campaign event.  While the car was at a 
rotunda, FSLN supporters threw rocks and sticks at the 
vehicle's passengers and stabbed two people riding in the 
back of the pick-up.  The injured passengers were taken to 
the hospital, where VCE-PLC mayoral candidate Eduardo 
Montealegre called on the police to provide security on the 
streets to avoid these incidents. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Other acts of recent political violence include: 
 
- October 29: FSLN supporters attacked VCE-PLC campaign staff 
outside a VCE-PLC campaign office, seriously injuring three 
VCE-PLC supporters.  One of the victims required surgery. 
The event occurred when VCE-PLC staff walked out of their 
campaign office to stop the Ortega supporters from replacing 
Montealegre's party propaganda with FSLN propaganda.  As 
reported by local media, "the Ortega mob" also attacked a 
VCE-PLC photographer and destroyed his camera; 
 
- October 26: Citizen Power Councils (CPC, the Ortega 
government's extension into local politics and government) 
attacked two VCE-PLC campaign officials with rocks while the 
two traveled in Leon; 
 
- October 26: CPCs attacked leaders of opposition parties in 
Ciudad Sandino (north of Managua) while the mayoral candidate 
was campaigning door-to-door in the city. 
 
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FSLN - Victim or Agitator? 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) While most of the violence has been instigated by 
Ortega's FSLN supporters, the FSLN has also reported 
VCE-PLC-led violence.  On October 21 media reported that a 
PLC supporter, during a PLC rally, fatally shot a FSLN 
supporter in Matagalpa (northeast of Managua). 
 
¶5.  (SBU) However, only FSLN party leaders have publicly 
promoted and defended the use of violence.  On September 23, 
and in response to the September 20 FSLN-led violence in Leon 
(reftel), FSLN National Assembly Deputy Gustavo Porras said 
the FSLN "would defend the streets as a way to defend their 
power."  On October 1, the quasi-official weekly "El 19" 
(controlled by First Lady Rosario Murillo), described the 
September 20 FSLN-led violence in Leon as a "demonstration of 
the pride of the people of Leon who responded to protect 
their streets." 
 
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Comment 
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¶6.  (SBU) As Nicaragua's elections draw closer, political 
violence is becoming a daily occurrence.  While both the FSLN 
and the VCE-PLC have provoked violence, the FSLN has been 
overwhelmingly responsible.  There is concern among the 
opposition parties that the violence leading up to the local 
contests can intimidate the electorate, resulting in low 
voter turnout.  Low voter turnout for the municipal contests 
would favor FSLN candidates across the country.  In general, 
this predominantly FSLN-led political violence provides 
concern for the environment in which the elections will take 
place on November 9. 
 
CALLAHAN