VZCZCXRO2909
RR RUEHBZ RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDU #0057 2840705
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 100705Z OCT 08
FM AMCONSUL DURBAN
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0706

UNCLAS DURBAN 000057 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: POLITICAL NOTES FROM DURBAN AND CAPE TOWN 
 
ANC is Confident in KwaZulu Natal 
 
¶1. (SBU) African National Congress (ANC) Provincial chairperson 
and Provincial Minister for Finance and Economic Development Dr. 
Zweli Mkhize told Consul General and P/E Assistant in an 
introductory call in late September that he was confident that 
the ANC would win 60 percent of the vote in upcoming provincial 
elections in KwaZulu Natal (KZN).  He attributed the anticipated 
success at the polls to the ANC's superior record of service 
delivery in the province, in a range of areas.  Dr. Mkhize 
claimed that intra-party unity in the province was good and even 
relations with the opposition Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) were 
positive.  He would not comment on the widely-held expectation 
that he would succeed Sibusiso Ndebele as Premier of KZN or even 
receive a national Cabinet portfolio, demurely noting, 'the ANC 
first must focus on winning the election.'  (Comment: We 
consider a sacking of Ndebele as unlikely in KZN province, as 
the ANC will need to rely on all party elements for support in 
order to win the elections.  End comment.) 
 
Analysts are Critical 
 
¶2. (SBU) Meanwhile, two political analysts from the University 
of KZN voiced disappointment in the ANC's record of service 
delivery in the province, highlighting problems with education, 
policing and infrastructure.  They told CG and P/E Asst in a 
late September meeting that they were not convinced the ANC 
would win the election, and confided that some diehard ANC 
supporters in KZN were so discouraged that they would likely not 
vote at all.  Although intrigued by the rumors of a split in the 
ANC, neither thought such a development would occur before 2009 
elections or that it would decrease ANC's support significantly. 
 
IFP Strategizes--at Provincial and National Level 
 
¶3. (SBU) Reverend Musa Zondi of the IFP told CG and P/E Asst on 
October 3 that his party has a realistic shot at winning the 
province back in 2009.  The IFP, which has a strong support base 
in rural areas, will highlight the failure of the ANC to provide 
services and infrastructure in certain rural districts.  Rev. 
Zondi acknowledged that the ANC had gained support in KZN since 
it came into power in 2004, based on greater service delivery in 
some rural settings.  He also confirmed that Ms. Zanele Magwaza 
Msibi will be the IFP's candidate for the KZN premiership. 
(Comment: Rev. Zondi, who represents the moderates in the IFP, 
lost out to Ms. Msibi in the intra-IFP nomination process; she 
had the backing of Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi, who is a 
traditionalist/hardliner.  This choice is surprising, 
considering the male-dominated cultural traditions within the 
hardline camp of the party; and although she might do the 
bidding of Buthelezi, she does not a have strong public profile 
and could have a hard time wooing voters to the IFP.  End 
comment). 
 
¶4. (SBU) As part of its election campaign commencement, Chief 
Buthelezi launched the party's voter registration campaign on 
Saturday, October 4. (Comment: The early start of the election 
campaign indicates the IFP's seriousness about winning the 
province.  It can also be seen as IFP's strategic response to 
the Independent Electoral Commission's announcement that KZN is 
the province with the highest number of unregistered voters. End 
comment.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) Cape Town Econoff met with IFP MP Eric Lucas on 26 
September.  Lucas said the IFP is working through its election 
strategy at the moment, and is currently employing a local 
consultant to help map out the road ahead.  The party is most 
focused on its traditional KZN heartland, though it sees 
opportunities for growth in Gauteng, Free State, and Mpumalanga. 
 Still, Lucas noted 10 percent of the national vote probably 
would be the best case scenario.  Money, per usual, is a big 
problem, and complicated by the fact that Durban 
businesses--long a key source of support--are throwing their lot 
behind Jacob Zuma.  The party is focused on trying to bring in 
younger voters, though Lucas worries whether the party 
leadership is sufficiently responsive on this issue.  He thinks 
the party needs new blood in Parliament, though it's unclear how 
much of a turnover in the IFP ranks there will be.  Many older 
MPs who should go balk at the R5000 per month pension, which 
they do not think is enough. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Post collaborated with CG Cape Town and Embassy 
Pretoria Political Section on this message. 
 
DERDERIAN