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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 001057 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR GENERAL CHANDLER, FROM THE AMBASSADOR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2018 
TAGS: PGOV KREL BG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR COMMANDER OF PACIFIC AIR FORCE 
GENERAL CHANDLER 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
 ------ 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Your visit to Bangladesh comes in the twilight of 
the Caretaker Government's (CTG) two-year term, amid 
preparations for national Parliamentary elections in 
December. The return to democracy remains fraught with 
uncertainties. Although both major parties, the Awami League 
and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), have said they 
want to participate in elections not all of their stated 
preconditions have been met. Also unclear is how many if any 
of the Caretaker Government's reforms to rid government of 
endemic corruption and violence will survive under a newly 
elected government. As the balance of power swings from the 
Government back toward the leaders of the two major parties, 
former prime ministers Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League and 
Khaleda Zia of the BNP, the ladies have yet to clearly signal 
their attitude toward elections and reforms. The result is 
persistent concern the elections could herald a return to the 
status quo ante and the violent "winner take all" political 
culture of Bangladesh. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) USG activities in Bangladesh are based on three 
pillars:  democratization, development and denial of space to 
terrorists.  We strongly support the Caretaker Government's 
efforts to ensure free, fair and credible elections.  We also 
call upon the political parties to play a responsible role 
before, during and after elections to prevent a return to 
dysfunctional democracy. The U.S. funds a comprehensive 
development program that includes aid for food, health, 
education, economic growth and governance.  Thanks to funds 
provided by Congress in the FY08 supplemental and FY09 
bridge, the USG is playing a substantial role in helping 
victims of last year,s cyclone in southern Bangladesh 
rebuild their lives.  We also cooperate closely with 
authorities here to combat terrorism and prevent Bangladesh 
from becoming a haven for terrorists. 
 
---------- 
DEMOCRACY 
---------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The Caretaker Government (CTG) came to power in 
January 2007, the day after a State of Emergency was declared 
to quell political violence that was spinning out of control 
in the run-up to Parliamentary elections. The CTG, made up of 
11 non-political advisers and strongly supported by the 
military, canceled the elections and began cracking down on 
endemic political corruption and violence.  The crackdown 
initially won broad public support, but frustration with the 
Caretaker Government spilled onto the streets in late August 
2007; at that point a dispute at Dhaka University between 
students and soldiers became a rallying point for thousands 
of Bangladeshis disaffected by inflation, other economic woes 
and restrictions on political activity.  The Government 
stopped the protests by imposing a curfew. 
 
¶4. (U) In September 2008, the Caretaker Government set 
December 18 as the date for the delayed Parliamentary 
elections and said upazilla (county-level) elections would be 
held later that month. The mechanics of holding elections are 
largely on track. Compiling a new, credible voter list was 
the marquee project undertaken by a reconstituted Election 
Commission.  The list was put to the test in city and 
municipal elections on August 4.  According to the Election 
Commission, turnout for the city polls ranged from 75 percent 
to 93 percent.  The Awami League stormed to victory, winning 
all four major mayoral slots up for grabs.  Election 
observers reported some generally minor problems during the 
vote and none of the violence that marred past polls.  The 
BNP boycotted the elections, claiming no vote should be held 
under a State of Emergency, a position it still maintains in 
the run-up to the Parliamentary elections. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The continuing negotiations over the return to 
democracy involve three key players: the Caretaker 
Government, the military and the two main parties, which are 
 
DHAKA 00001057  002 OF 003 
 
 
again under the direct leadership of Hasina and Zia. (Note: 
Both were jailed on a multitude of corruption charges in 
¶2007. Zia was released on bail in September while Hasina has 
been out of the country on medical parole since June. Hasina 
is now seeking bail, which the Awami League says is a 
precondition for participating in elections. End note.) The 
Caretaker Government,s Advisers, who act as temporary 
ministers, are technocrats; they want to negotiate a smooth 
election and a successful return to a less corrupt, more 
efficient democracy.  What has become clear in recent weeks 
is that the two ladies emerged from jail with personal 
control over their respective parties as strong as ever. 
Although some senior leaders in both parties have voiced 
support for reform, neither Sheikh Hasina nor Khaleda Zia has 
clearly indicated a desire for a decisive break from the 
status quo ante and its minimal checks on the power of the 
Parliament and Prime Minister. The advisers hope a summit 
between the two ladies might prod them to agree to a number 
of reforms, but prospects for such a meeting remain 
uncertain. 
 
------------ 
DEVELOPMENT 
------------ 
 
¶6. (U) In the midst of this political uncertainty, 
Bangladeshis are coping with the aftermath of natural 
disasters and spiraling inflation.  Cyclone Sidr blasted 
through southwestern Bangladesh in November 2007, leaving 
thousands of people dead and destroying the homes and 
livelihoods of millions.  As part of an inter-agency effort, 
the U.S. military played a crucial role in relief efforts by 
airlifting vitally needed water, food and emergency supplies 
to Bangladeshis in remote areas. However, the Government of 
Bangladesh and other international donors have not sustained 
the strong levels of assistance provided in Sidr's immediate 
aftermath, and millions of victims remain in need of aid to 
rebuild their lives. The additional $75 million for cyclone 
victims recently approved by the U.S. Congress has thus come 
at a most opportune time. 
 
¶7. (SBU) On top of natural disasters, inflation -- 
particularly of food prices -- remains dangerously high for 
Bangladesh's desperately poor population, 84 percent of whom 
subsist on less than $2 a day.  In response to rising food 
and fuel prices, the Caretaker Government in early July 
offered a populist budget aimed at softening the impact of 
those increases. Overall GDP growth, led by surging exports 
of ready made garments, remains strong; the economy grew 6.2 
percent in the year ended July 1.  While some economists 
argue the biggest problem facing the economy is double-digit 
inflation, others maintain Bangladesh needs to improve its 
energy and transportation infrastructure and grow its way out 
of difficulty by expanding exports.  Despite differing views, 
however, all agree a return to political chaos in the coming 
months would deal the economy a crushing blow. 
 
------------------------------- 
DENIAL OF SPACE TO TERRORISTS 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Bangladesh is a Muslim-majority nation with porous 
borders -- both land and maritime -- that make it an 
attractive transit point and safe-haven for terrorists.  The 
USG funds many programs in Bangladesh to counter terrorism, 
including a wide range of training under the Anti-Terrorist 
Assistance program coordinated by the State Department. 
USAID and Public Affairs Section programs also address root 
causes of extremism through outreach to leaders of influence, 
including religious figures, and to madrasas.  Human rights 
concerns have prevented in the past the USG from providing 
training to the paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), 
which is the lead counterterrorism force in Bangladesh. 
RAB's record generally has improved under the Caretaker 
Government, and the USG recently offered to begin human 
rights training upon receipt of additional information on 
allegations of past RAB abuses. 
 
¶9.  (S/NF) Bangladesh arrested several hundred alleged 
members of Jamaatul Mujahedin Bangladesh (JMB), the banned 
 
DHAKA 00001057  003 OF 003 
 
 
Islamic extremist group responsible for a wave of bombings 
and suicide attacks in late 2005, and recovered bomb-making 
materials and weapons from their hideouts. Those arrests, 
along with the execution in March 2007 of six senior JMB 
leaders, represented a clear blow to the organization. More 
recently, however, JMB reportedly has increased recruitment 
efforts. Moreover, the GOB has taken relatively little action 
against Bangladeshi groups with ties to transnational, 
Pakistan-based terrorist organizations. Concerns of possible 
violence by extremist organizations in the run-up to 
elections remain. 
 
----------- 
YOUR VISIT 
----------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Your visit to Bangladesh will highlight the 
importance the USG places on bilateral relations as well as 
on the Bangladesh military remaining a professional force 
that serves as a role model for Bangladeshi society.  It will 
underscore USG support for free, fair and credible elections 
in December, and for continuing political dialogue to ensure 
Bangladesh does not revert to chronically corrupt and violent 
politics. Your meetings with senior Bangladeshi military and 
civilian officials will provide opportunities to stress the 
importance of a restoration of democracy and of bilateral 
cooperation in combating terrorism. 
Moriarty