VZCZCXRO9765
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0620/01 2941657
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 201657Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3048
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CONAKRY 000620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PMIL PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: YOUTH LEADER TALKS ABOUT POTENTIAL COUP AND 
TRANSITION PLANS 
 
REF: A. CONAKRY 520 
     ¶B. CONAKRY 525 
     ¶C. CONAKRY 538 
     ¶D. CONAKRY 568 
     ¶E. CONAKRY 588 
 
Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D 
 
¶1.  (S) SUMMARY.  An underground youth movement appears to 
have joined forces with a group of young military officers 
intent on organizing a coup d,etat.  Initially focused on a 
democratic movement forcing democratic change, the youths may 
now be facing a slippery slope of choices that could 
ultimately undermine the very democracy they hope to 
establish.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (S) On October 17, Poloff met with youth leader Thierno 
Balde at the Embassy to discuss the status of discussions 
between various youth leaders and young military officers of 
the so called &19th promotion,8 who are reportedly working 
together to organize a coup d,etat.  Thierno had initially 
been trying to organize an underground youth movement to 
demand the president,s resignation, but now appears to have 
shifted his focus from the civilian side to the military 
(reftels). 
 
--------------------- 
THE ENTOURAGE CIRCLES 
--------------------- 
 
¶3.  (S) According to Thierno, military contacts have told him 
that Conte,s health continues to deteriorate, and that he 
now is not even capable of speech.  Thierno said that this 
situation is encouraging members of Conte,s entourage, such 
as Minister Secretary General of the Presidency, Alpha 
Ibrahima Keira, to try and maneuver themselves and others so 
that they are best positioned to seize power if the president 
dies.  Referring to rampant rumors about the prime 
minister,s imminent dismissal, Thierno said &this is why 
(former Finance Minister) Kassory is the name people are 
putting forward as Prime Minister Souare,s likely 
successor.8  Thierno added that many of these political 
players are using the ðnic card8 to try and manipulate 
different groups. 
 
¶4.  (S) Thierno told Poloff that Guineans are clearly worried 
about the current political situation.  Having just come from 
Friday mosque, Thierno said he was surprised to hear his imam 
tell the youths that they &have to do something8 because 
the government has failed to address critical issues. 
According to Thierno, the imam was referring to Guinea,s 
growing drug trafficking problem. 
 
-------------------------- 
COORDINATING A COUP D,ETAT 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (S) When asked whether he is still working with junior 
military officers on a coup plot, he replied &yes.8  A 
lawyer by trade, Thierno said he was hoping to soon finalize 
the proposed constitutional amendments he is drafting, which 
the military reportedly plans to force the National Assembly 
to adopt. 
 
¶6.  (S) Poloff asked about a young officer recently 
identified through sensitive sources, Alpha Ousmane Diallo. 
Thierno said that he knows him and his family very well and 
that Diallo is a prominent member of the 19th promotion. 
However, Thierno clarified that Diallo is the son of a former 
president of the National Assembly, not the son of former 
Prime Minister and opposition leader Cellou Diallo, as 
previously reported.  According to Thierno, Diallo is a 
&strict military guy, rigid in his beliefs, committed to the 
coup, and highly respected among the rank and file soldiers. 
 
¶7.  (S) Thierno added that the youth leaders are very 
concerned about what the military transition will look like 
if the coup is successful, noting that &we do not want 
another Conte for 25 years; we have to know who will be in 
charge and who will play what role.8  He said that this is 
one reason the youths are looking very closely at the 
military officers they are working with in order to try to 
weed out those who might be seeking power.  However, Thierno 
admitted that they may not be able to control the situation. 
&Once they are in charge, it will be very difficult for us 
to intercede,8 he said, &that is why we have to have the 
transition mapped out before we get started.8 
 
------------------ 
 
CONAKRY 00000620  002 OF 003 
 
 
SOONER OR LATER... 
------------------ 
 
¶8.  (S) When Poloff asked about a possible timeline for the 
coup, Thierno acknowledged that discovery is always a risk, 
but that the military officers are confident that they can 
continue to operate undetected.  Thierno emphasized that no 
one wants bloodshed, which is why they are working so hard to 
recruit support.  &The Presidential Guard is our main 
obstacle, but if we can get a few key officers, we will be 
better positioned to avoid violence,8 Thierno said.  He 
added that there is one key player who might be convinced to 
join forces with the coup plotters, but that they are 
unlikely to make any inroads with senior presidential guard 
officers.  Further complicating the issue, according to 
Thierno, is the fact that a number of the presidential guard 
are actually from Guinea Bissau and therefore not interested 
in Guinea. 
 
¶9.  (S) Thierno told Poloff that his military collaborators 
already have clear control over Camp Alpha Yaya and Camp 
Boiro, as well as a shooting range near the airport.  &The 
only thing we,re missing is the presidential guard and 
military aircraft,8 he said.  When Poloff asked what he 
meant by military aircraft, Thierno vaguely referred to a 
back-up plan aimed at preventing the president and others 
from possibly fleeing the country. 
 
¶10.  (S) According to Thierno, there are some plotters who 
want to go forward with the coup immediately while others 
prefer to take their time and make sure the plan is 
thoroughly thought out.  However, Thierno told Poloff that he 
thinks the military will take action soon, &perhaps before 
the end of the month.8  He later said that they may decide 
to wait until Conte dies and then step in, or they will force 
his resignation through a coup. 
 
------------------------------ 
GETTING RID OF THE &OLD GUARD8 
------------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (S) When asked if he or others had been in contact with 
political parties or other elements of civil society, Thierno 
emphatically said that they had not.  &We cannot bring back 
the old generation because they are the problem,8 he said. 
He said that all the opposition parties are led by former 
government leaders who made themselves rich off the system, 
specifically pointing a finger at former Prime Minister Sidya 
Toure.  &We have to make sure that when elections happen, 
that we are not just electing the old guys who were part of 
the old system.8 
 
¶12.  (S) According to Thierno, the only way to avoid this 
eventuality is to force an amendment to the electoral code, 
prohibiting those government officials accused of corruption 
from putting themselves forward as candidates.  Poloff 
commented that such a tactic sounded undemocratic and 
encouraged the possibility of a &witch hunt.8  Thierno then 
backtracked and said &that is why we need 18 months to 
organize elections; we need to have time to have these people 
stand trial for corruption,8 suggesting that only those 
individuals convicted on corruption charges would be 
prevented from running for office.  Poloff pointed out that 
Guinea,s justice system has its own challenges that may make 
it difficult to effectively prosecute corruption at the 
current time.  Thierno waved off this concern, agreeing only 
that it should be a fair process. 
 
¶13.  (S) Poloff asked if they could not achieve the same 
objective by simply allowing for independent candidature. 
Thierno agreed that this might be an option, but said that it 
probably would not work because the older generation is too 
close to their memories of Sekou Toure, and unlikely to 
change.  Thierno said that Alpha Ibrahima Keira's (the 
President's Minister Secretary General) father was one of the 
&top guys8 at Camp Boiro, where thousands of people were 
allegedly killed during Sekou Toure,s regime.  He then said 
that former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate was actively 
trying to bring back Sekou Toure,s style of government. 
When Poloff asked for a specific example, Thierno said that 
Kouyate,s wife wanted everyone to wear white to an official 
event, which is something that Sekou Toure had frequently 
done. 
 
-------------------------------- 
GUINEA CAN BE AN EXAMPLE FOR ALL 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (S) Thierno then went on at length about various 
 
CONAKRY 00000620  003 OF 003 
 
 
American revolutionary leaders, pointing out that Thomas 
Jefferson was only 28 years old when he was drafting the 
Declaration of Independence (COMMENT. He was in fact 33 or 34 
years old at the time.  END COMMENT).  He said that he is 
envious of other democracies in the world, and wants to bring 
those same principles to Guinea.  &One day, I want to say 
that I was part of changing this system,8 he said.  He then 
mentioned that he had observed a member of Nelson Mandela,s 
family in South Africa, who was clearly treated with great 
respect by many people.  &We can be like that,8 he said. 
Before leaving, he told Poloff &if we do this right, Guinea 
can be an example for all of Africa.8 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶15.  (S) In September, Thierno was advocating for a peaceful 
youth movement to force political change, which appeared 
inherently democratic.  Faced with deep divisions among the 
youth groups he was trying to pull together, he has since 
adjusted his priorities and is collaborating with young 
military officers intent on pulling off a coup d,etat.  Even 
when he first joined forces with the military, Thierno was 
still talking about a civilian transitional government 
focused on holding elections within six months.  He now 
appears to be willing to accept a predominantly military 
transition, with elections twelve to eighteen months down the 
road.  In part, these changes may be a reflection of the 
competing interests of the many different people who are 
trying to organize the coup and subsequent transitional 
government. 
 
¶16.  (S) At the same time, Thierno and other civilian youth 
leaders may now be sliding down an increasingly slippery 
slope.  In seeking to usher in democracy, they may actually 
be sacrificing the fundamental underlying elements that make 
a democracy strong.  The fact that they are willing to force 
the National Assembly to adopt &democratic8 amendments at 
gunpoint raises questions about what else will be considered 
acceptable.  Eighteen months is a long time for young 
military leaders to be in power, and Thierno,s hesitant 
conviction that the military will willingly step down when 
asked to do so seems somewhat naive, although they may very 
well do as they promise.  Always passionate about his cause, 
Thierno,s enthusiasm may now be approaching a dangerous 
blend of zealous fervor and patriotism that could ultimately 
derail the democratic ideals he reportedly believes in.  END 
COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC