VZCZCXRO9500
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0614/01 2941257
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 201257Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3042
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000614 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PMIL PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER SAYS END OF REGIME IS IMMINENT 
 
Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SHANNON CAZEAU FOR REASON 1.4 B AND D 
 
¶1.  (S) SUMMARY.  Opposition leader Sidya Toure told Poloff 
that the end of Conte,s regime is imminent, whether through 
his death or a military takeover.  In either case, he said he 
was certain that some sort of military transition is in 
Guinea,s future.  Sidya said he and other opposition party 
leaders are unofficially reaching out to junior military 
officers in order to make sure that they understand that such 
a transition must lead to democracy and elections.  Several 
of Sidya,s comments suggest that he may be well informed of 
a coup plot currently being organized by a core group of 
junior military officers.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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OF THIS, I HAVE NO DOUBT 
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¶2.  (S) Poloff met with UFR (Union Force Republican) 
opposition leader and former Prime Minister Sidya Toure on 
October 17.  When asked about Guinea,s current political 
situation, Sidya told Poloff &there are four things of which 
I have absolutely no doubt:  Conte,s regime is taking this 
country nowhere, Conte is in terrible health and the end of 
his regime is imminent, this government has no interest in 
organizing elections, and the military will ultimately take 
power.8 
 
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COUP MUST COME FROM THE INTELLECTUALS 
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¶3.  (S) Despite his conviction that some type of military 
transition would emerge, Sidya said that the military is a 
worrisome institution at this point.  He referred to May 
military mutiny leader Claude Pivi (aka Coplan) as a typical 
example of the undisciplined, poorly educated rank and file 
soldiers that have been recruited in recent years.  He said 
that he has been supportive of the idea of a coup for some 
time, and was hoping for something similar to the coup in 
Mali.  However, after the military mutiny, Sidya said he was 
talking with the former president of Mali, Konari, who he 
considers a close friend.  According to Sidya, Konari told 
him that the level of education among the mutineers was low, 
and that a coup organized by such soldiers would be a very 
bad thing. 
 
¶4.  (S) Sidya told Poloff that a coup is still the best 
option.  He said that transparent elections are unlikely in 
the current political climate, and that the constitutional 
process is no longer relevant.  He added that a coup may not 
even be necessary if Conte should happen to die while in 
office, but that a military transition is a certainty. 
However, Sidya emphasized that a military transitional 
government require seasoned, disciplined officers.  &We need 
people with education; we need the junior officers who are 
more intellectual.8  When asked if he had reached out to the 
military, Sidya said ¬ officially no, but we are making 
sure they understand what the transition needs to look 
like.8  Sidya said that although many people support the 
idea of a coup d,etat, they do not want another military 
regime. 
 
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DEMOCRACY MUST FOLLOW 
--------------------- 
 
¶5.  (S) According to Sidya, opposition party leaders have 
been meeting behind closed doors to discuss an eventual 
transition.  He emphasized that the government and the ruling 
party have not been informed of these meetings, the last of 
which was just held on October 16.  &We have to make sure 
that the military understands exactly what needs to happen 
here,8 Sidya said.  He added that he and others are advising 
the military that the international community will 
automatically condemn a coup.  &The trick is for them to do 
the coup and then start turning things over to civilians as 
early as possible, and move towards organizing elections, in 
order to minimize international criticism; that is our 
message,8 Sidya said.  &In addition, we need to make sure 
they understand that any military transition leader would be 
absolutely unacceptable as a political candidate when 
elections are finally organized,8 he added. 
 
¶6.  (S) In response to a question about youth activities in 
the civilian sector, Sidya said that the youths have the 
right idea, but are poorly positioned to achieve their 
objectives.  He pointed out that there were twice as many 
deaths during the 2007 strikes in Guinea than there were 
during the 1991 military coup in Mali, but that Mali 
 
CONAKRY 00000614  002 OF 002 
 
 
ultimately succeed where Guinea failed.  Sidya said that 
civil demonstrations are not a viable solution, because some 
degree of force is necessary.  &That is why we are talking 
to the young military officers,8 he said. 
 
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NEIGHBORS CONCERNED 
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¶7.  (S) Sidya mentioned that he had recently talked with some 
of his close friends from Senegal and Cote d,Ivoire during 
Guinea,s celebration of 50 years of independence, including 
several unnamed current and foreign ministers.  According to 
Sidya, a Senegalese minister told him that Senegalese 
President Wade was deeply worried about the political 
situation in Guinea, and considered it &highly explosive.8 
Sidya said that his Ivoirian contacts echoed the same 
sentiment. 
 
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WE NEED YOUR HELP 
----------------- 
 
¶8.  (S) Poloff emphasized that the U.S. Government would not 
support a coup d,etat, repeating comments made to Sidya in 
previous meetings.  Sidya said &I know you cannot support a 
coup, but we hope that you can help us afterwards because 
that is when we are really going to need the help.8  Poloff 
told him that the USG is interested in supporting democracy 
and ultimately, elections in Guinea.  Sidya replied, 
&exactly, we want the same thing.8 
 
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CHINESE REACHING OUT 
-------------------- 
 
¶9.  (S) Before the meeting ended, Sidya mentioned that he and 
other key opposition party leaders had attended a meeting 
hosted by the Chinese Ambassador the evening of October 16. 
&It was the first time that the Chinese have ever expressed 
an interest in meeting with us,8 he said.  According to 
Sidya, the Chinese economic and political assistants were 
also present, although he said he expected they probably 
played a &different role8 within the Embassy.  Sidya said 
that the Chinese were very interested in getting opposition 
leaders, perspective on Guinea,s current political 
situation, and especially whether or not the current regime 
is likely to continue.  &They were very preoccupied with 
what is going on, and it was unusual because they have never 
talked to us before,8 he told Poloff. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶10.  (S) As usual, Sidya was direct in his speech and seemed 
to speak freely, joking &I always tell you exactly what I am 
thinking.8  Sidya,s advocacy for a coup is not new.  He 
made it clear that he is not directly involved in any coup 
plot, but that he is communicating with those individuals who 
might be thinking about organizing one.  The fact that 
several of his comments resonate closely with some that we 
have highlighted in more sensitive reporting suggests that 
Sidya is probably well informed of the current coup plot 
being organized by junior officers of the &19th promotion,8 
and may even be communicating with select officers. 
 
¶11.  (S) The Chinese meeting with the opposition party 
leaders may be significant given that sensitive reporting has 
recently indicated that the Chinese may be very concerned 
about the current political situation.  END COMMENT. 
RASPOLIC