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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001518 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2018 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL VE
SUBJECT: STATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS -- THREE WEEKS AWAY 
 
CARACAS 00001518  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ, 
FOR REASON 1.4(D) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  With three weeks until state and local 
elections on November 23, President Chavez has focused his 
attention on attacking the opposition in Zulia State.  Chavez 
may be preparing the ground to declare Zulia State Governor 
Manuel Rosales ineligible to run for the Maracaibo mayorship. 
 National Electoral Council (CNE) rector Vicente Diaz has 
petitioned that the council open an administrative 
investigation into Chavez's violations of electoral 
regulations, but the CNE is highly unlikely to react. 
Pro-government and opposition campaigns do not yet appear to 
be generating much public interest, although political 
tendencies appear to be hardening.  We assess that the 
opposition could pick up six of 22 governorships in play and 
be competitive in four other gubernatorial races.  End 
Summary. 
 
-------------------- 
ELECTORAL CONDITIONS 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  President Chavez has been using obligatory TV 
broadcasts, known as "cadenas," to stump for his PSUV 
candidates almost daily.  From October 6 to October 21, 
Chavez used cadenas eight times for a total of approximately 
eight hours, inaugurating projects often with key PSUV 
candidates at his side.  The CNE rector Vicente Diaz said on 
October 28 that he would ask the CNE to open an 
administrative investigation of Chavez for possible electoral 
violations.  Diaz, the sole opposition-oriented member of the 
CNE board, told us on October 30 in a meeting at the Embassy 
that the move might have a political cost for the President, 
but recognized that the pro-government majority of CNE 
rectors are unlikely to act against Chavez. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Diaz's petition to investigate state-owned Venezuela 
TV for "disguising publicity as information" was approved on 
October 29 after five hours of deliberation.  According to 
pro-opposition daily El Nacional, the CNE has received over 
700 complaints to date regarding campaign publicity 
violations.  Approximately 300 cases will undergo further 
investigation, including Chavez's complaint against Guarico 
gubernatorial candidate Lenny Manuitt of the pro-government 
Patria Para Todos party.  The CNE is unlikely to issue timely 
sanctions in these cases, but may impose some token fines 
against some candidates. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  The CNE sponsored an election day simulation on 
October 26, during which participants took an average of 13 
minutes to cast their ballots, far exceeding the three-minute 
time limit legally permitted.  Voters who exceed the time 
limit will receive an additional three minutes, after which 
their vote is nullified.  Diaz noted that given the long and 
confusing slate of candidates, voters will be able to cast 
their ballots within the timeframe, only if their 
decision-making is finalized before they enter the booth. 
CNE President Tibisay Lucena announced that voters will be 
allowed to carry into polling stations "cheat-sheets" 
provided by the political parties showing them how to vote. 
Student activists announced October 28 their plan to 
safeguard the vote, dubbing the campaign "guardians of the 
vote." 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
CHAVEZ FOCUSED ON DISABLING ZULIA OPPOSITION 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Chavez has gone on the offensive against current 
Zulia State governor and Maracaibo consensus opposition 
mayoral candidate Manuel Rosales, and may be preparing the 
ground to declare him ineligible to run at the eleventh hour. 
 CNE Rector Diaz told us that he hopes Chavez is only 
"playing politics," but said he cannot be sure whether or not 
Chavez would engineer Rosales' disqualification.  The 
Venezuelan president has repeatedly accused Rosales of 
corruption, on October 12 calling him a "vermin, bandit, and 
killer who has destroyed Zulia's social development."  Two 
weeks later, Chavez threatened to have Rosales arrested for 
alleged involvement in a coup plot against the President and 
warned Zulia residents that relations with the state would be 
reexamined if PSUV gubernatorial candidate Giancarlo Di 
Martino did not win in November. 
 
¶6. (SBU) On October 27, Rosales' Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT) party 
announced their intention to take Chavez to court for 
 
CARACAS 00001518  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
electoral infractions and false accusations that Rosales is 
involved in terrorism and narcotrafficking.  Rosales admitted 
that the legal action would be a "salute to the flag" because 
of the lack of judicial and CNE independence, and called 
Chavez's attacks a "psychological war that uses media 
terrorism."  According to pro-opposition daily El Universal, 
the GBRV has announced that it would prepare "military plans" 
in case Rosales wins. 
 
¶7.  (C)  While campaigning for PSUV candidates in Bolivar 
State, Chavez announced on October 29 that "four years is 
what I have left," adding that he would discuss the issue of 
amending constitutional presidential term limits after 
November's elections.  CNE rector Vicente Diaz told us on 
October 30, however, that Chavez will have to contend with 
ambitious Chavistas, including PSUV gubernatorial candidate 
for Lara state Henri Falcon and PSUV mayoral candidate for 
the Libertador Borough of Caracas Jorge Rodriguez, who he 
said had presidential aspirations of their own.  Diaz also 
predicted that, if elected, a number of PSUV candidates would 
probably challenge Chavez's efforts to erode state and local 
power. 
 
------------------------------------ 
OPPOSITION DISUNITY MAY ATOMIZE VOTE 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (C)  The opposition remains unable to find consensus in a 
number of races, which could atomize the electorate and 
inadvertently favor the PSUV candidates.  In three of the 
five Caracas mayoral races, the opposition has failed to 
settle on a consensus candidate.  In Bolivar State, Antonio 
Rojas Suarez and Andres Velasquez are likely to split the 
opposition vote.  In Guarico State, the opposition unity 
candidate for the governorship is Reynaldo Armas, but PPT's 
Lenny Manuitt told the press October 29 that she has no plans 
to drop out of the gubernatorial race, which is likely to 
result in a three-way split which would facilitate a win for 
the PSUV's William Lara. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  As the clock winds down, pro-government or 
opposition tendencies seem to be solidifying.  The possible 
atomization of the vote in opposition strongholds with no 
unity candidate could be the big story come November 23, 
especially if the PSUV continues to redouble its efforts to 
mobilize its base.  The opposition still has a long way to go 
to field enough witnesses to protect the vote, especially in 
areas where the government could resort to stuffing ballot 
boxes in support of high profile PSUV candidates such as the 
Sucre and Libertador boroughs of Caracas and Miranda and 
Barinas states.  In addition, PSUV dissidents and pro-Chavez 
allies from smaller parties do not appear to have much 
prospect of securing traditional opposition support in their 
races.  Instead, they seem to be losing ground to the 
official PSUV candidates. 
 
CAULFIELD