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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CANBERRA 001075 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR ISN, VCI, T AND EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2018 
TAGS: PARM AORC PREL KNNP AS
SUBJECT: NEW NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION/DISARMAMENT GROUP 
SETS AMBITIOUS WORK PLAN 
 
REF: A. CANBERRA 595 
     ¶B. CANBERRA 1026 
 
Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John Crowley. Reasons: 1.4 (b 
)(d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (C) Commissioners at the inaugural meeting of the 
International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and 
Disarmament (ICNND) in Sydney October 19-21 agreed on an 
ambitious work program involving seven meetings in different 
capitals over the course of the next 18 months, and 
production of 20 papers on nonproliferation and disarmament 
issues.   The meetings and papers will feed into the 
Commission's major objective: an ICNND report with 
recommendations intended to influence the May 2010 Treaty on 
the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) Review 
Conference.  The group broadly discussed the NPT's three 
central objectives: nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament and 
peaceful use of nuclear energy, but did not attempt to reach 
consensus on specific positions in the initial meeting, 
according to the head of the Secretariat.  The group also 
endorsed co-chair Gareth Evans' plan to extend ICNND's 
mandate beyond the 2010 NPT Review Conference.  In remarks to 
the media on October 21, Evans cited conversations with 
advisors to both U.S. presidential candidates in voicing 
optimism a new U.S. administration would move forward on the 
nonproliferation/disarmament agenda, including perhaps 
greater receptivity to ratifying the Comprehensive Test Ban 
Treaty (CTBT), which would put pressure on China to follow 
suit, and to re-engage with Russia on the Strategic Arms 
Reduction Treaty (START).  End summary. 
 
SUCCESSFUL INAUGURAL MEETING 
---------------------------- 
¶2. (C)  Ian Biggs, Head of the ICNND (pronounced: IK-NID) 
Secretariat, briefed poloff on the first meeting of the 
Commission since Prime Minister Rudd unveiled the concept in 
June 2008.  Overall, the meetings had been successful, 
according to Briggs, with participation by 11 of the 15 
commissioners who had been named less than one month earlier. 
 In addition to co-chairs Gareth Evans (Australia) and Yoriko 
Kawaguchi (Japan), participants included Ali Alatas 
(Indonesia), Alexei Arbatov (Russia), Gro Harlem Brundtland 
(Norway), Francois Heisbourg (France), Jehangir Karamat 
(Pakistan), Klaus Naumann (Germany), William Perry (United 
States), Wang Yingfan (China), and Ernesto Zedillo (Mexico). 
Those not attending due to prior engagements or illness were 
Turki Al-Faisal (Saudi Arabia), Frene Noshir Ginwala (South 
Africa), Brajesh Mishra (India), and Shirley Williams (United 
Kingdom).  Several members of the advisory board also took 
part. 
 
ATMOSPHERICS 
------------ 
¶3. (C)  All the commissioners seemed focused and ready to 
work to further their common aims, according to Biggs.  The 
group agreed on the broad objectives of furthering nuclear 
nonproliferation and the ultimate aim of eliminating nuclear 
weapons completely, but had a realistic understanding of 
current realities and did not attempt to reach consensus on 
main questions at this initial meeting.  As might be expected 
Qmain questions at this initial meeting.  As might be expected 
of such senior statesmen, Biggs observed, there was no 
singling out of the United States for criticism or any effort 
to make it a special focus of ICNND efforts.  The group 
accepted the co-chairs' proposal to extend the mandate of the 
Commission for a two-year period, which would carry it beyond 
the NPT RevCon, in order to set out a road map for future 
action, including drawing in non-NPT states into the treaty. 
 
INDEPENDENT -- BUT WITH GOA AND JAPANESE SUPPORT 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
¶4. (SBU) Prime Minister Rudd hosted a dinner for the group on 
October 19, at which he pledged GOA support for the ICNND, 
including a financial contribution of AUS $8.3 million (USD 
5.6 million), while acknowledging the possibility that the 
independent group's conclusions and recommendations might 
 
CANBERRA 00001075  002 OF 003 
 
 
diverge or even conflict with GOA policy.  The GOA 
contribution also involves hosting the Secretariat, which is 
housed in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). 
Japan is providing logistic support, Biggs added. 
 
AMBITIOUS WORK PLAN 
------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) During working sessions on October 20-21, the 
commissioners agreed on a calendar of meetings over the next 
12 months, including in Washington, D.C., during the February 
13-17, 2009, timeframe; in Moscow in June; in Hiroshima, 
Japan in October; as well as a series of regional meetings in 
Santiago, New Delhi, Beijing and Cairo, held in conjunction 
with research centers, to include advisory board members, 
academics and NGOs. (ICNND's associated research centers 
include:  Carnegie Endowment, Washington, D.C.; Delhi Policy 
Group, New Delhi; Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique, 
Paris; Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, San 
Jose, Costa Rica; Japan Institute of International Affairs, 
Tokyo; King's College, London; and the Lowy Institute for 
International Policy, Sydney.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Commissioners requested the Advisory Board's 
assistance in producing 20 study papers on various 
nonproliferation and disarmament issues that would inform the 
Commission's thinking in writing a final ICNND report with 
recommendations for the 2010 NPT Review Conference. 
According to Biggs, representative topics included: the 
Nuclear Suppliers Group post-U.S.-India civil nuclear 
agreement; the Proliferation Security Initiative; the Nuclear 
Weapons Convention (NWC); renewing the Strategic Arms 
Reduction Treaty (START); role of long-range conventional 
weapons; Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty; 
implications of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR); 
Article X (withdrawal provisions) of the Treaty on the 
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT); and the IAEA 
Additional Protocol. 
 
U.S. ENGAGEMENT 
--------------- 
¶7. (C) Biggs noted U.S. Commissioner and former Defense 
Secretary William Perry had pushed for the second meeting to 
be held in Washington, D.C., in mid-February, stressing it 
would be crucial to engage the new U.S. administration as 
early as possible and to ensure that the new government 
accorded a high priority to nonproliferation and disarmament. 
 Perry acknowledged that many U.S. officials would not yet be 
confirmed, or perhaps not even named, but urged the 
Commission co-chairs to meet the new President and Secretary 
of State at a minimum, Biggs said. 
 
¶8. (U) During a joint press conference with co-chair 
Kawaguchi, Evans said his conversations with staff of Senator 
McCain and Senator Obama has engendered confidence that there 
would be positive changes under a new U.S. administration in 
regards to nonproliferation and disarmament.  He offered his 
view than an Obama administration would support early 
ratification of the CTBT, while Senator McCain kept an open 
mind on the subject, despite past opposition to ratification. 
 Evans said discussions in China had left him with the strong 
Q Evans said discussions in China had left him with the strong 
impression that, were the U.S. to ratify the CTBT, China 
would find itself under "irresistible" pressure to ratify it, 
too.  He told the media he had discerned a willingness on the 
part of the Russian foreign minister and other senior Russian 
officials to re-engage with the United States on the START 
Treaty before its expiration in 2009 as well as on associated 
arms control measures, adding he had no doubt that a new U.S. 
administration would be "keen" to recommence talks on START. 
 
¶9. (C) Comment:  The ICNND has set itself a punishing 
schedule that may well threaten the quality of its output. 
Biggs, who had had been shifted abruptly from his former 
position as Assistant Secretary for Arms Control and 
Counter-Proliferation to head the Secretariat soon after 
Rudd's announcement, seemed in a state of shock at the volume 
of work endorsed by the Commission over the next few months, 
noting his first order of business would be to request at 
least two more staff members to supplement the two DFAT 
 
CANBERRA 00001075  003 OF 003 
 
 
officer he had been allocated, along with an intern. 
Moreover, there is a question about the quality of the papers 
that will shape the eventual report and recommendations for 
the NPT revcon.  As ICNND cannot obtain reports from 
classified sources, some papers may be incomplete at best. 
Finally, co-chair Evans seems to be bent on having a strong 
Track II component in regional meetings that, if not managed 
properly, may act to weaken the Commission's credibility and 
distort its ultimate recommendations. 
 
CLUNE