P 240706Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0393
INFO AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 
NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 001074 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2018 
TAGS: PGOV ECON AS
SUBJECT: FORMER HOWARD ADVISOR ON RUDD'S STIMULUS PACKAGE 
 
REF: CANBERRA 1036 
 
Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John W. Crowley, for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY:  A former adviser to John Howard says the 
Rudd Government likely made a purely political decision 
rather than a carefully thought out economic one when it 
decided on the size of the  A$10.4 billion stimulus plan 
(reftel).   New Liberal Party MP Jamie Briggs, who won the 
seat of former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer in 
September, told poloff that the A$10 billion package, 
representing approximately half of the budget surplus, was a 
huge amount for an economy the size of Australia's and, 
although the Government claims the funds are part of the 
budget surplus, Government revenue  was likely dropping like 
a stone.   The real problems for the Government will become 
apparent in 2009, when falling revenue would be unable to 
match spending commitments and Rudd would be forced to make 
tough choices.  Briggs agreed that first-time governments in 
Australia are almost always reelected and the return of a 
Coalition government to Australia is likely a five-year 
project at least.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (C/NF) From 2004-07 Briggs was a senior adviser to Prime 
Minister John Howard on Workplace Relations, Employment, 
Industry, and Small Business.  Post had selected him for the 
International Visitor Program in 2007, and he was about to 
travel to the United States in early 2008 when Alexander 
Downer approached him to run for the former foreign 
minister's seat of Mayo in South Australia.  Briggs faced a 
number of competitors in the contest for the Liberal Party's 
nomination for this safe seat but, with the support of Downer 
and former Prime Minister Howard, Briggs prevailed.  Only 31 
years old but with three years experience in the Prime 
Minister's Office, Briggs is in the forefront of the Liberal 
Party's renewal process. 
 
SIZE OF THE STIMULUS A POLITICAL DECISION 
 
¶3. (C/NF) At a meeting with poloff on October 23, Briggs said 
that he suspected the Rudd Government made a political 
decision, and not an economic one, in providing for an 
immediate  A$10.4 billion stimulus package.  Briggs claimed 
the Government would not have had any economic data yet on 
the global financial turmoil's impact on the Australian 
economy, and the decision on the size of the stimulus package 
would have been "guesswork."  Briggs said he suspected $A 5 
billion would have been a more judicious initial stimulus but 
the Government likely made a political decision to throw 
caution to the wind in an attempt to avoid a recession.  The 
stimulus will allegedly be paid from the budget surplus but 
with government revenue undoubtedly falling fast, Briggs 
wondered if there would even be a surplus large enough to 
cover the stimulus package.  (Comment:  most observers 
believe that even with reduced revenues, the surplus will 
more than cover the stimulus package.  End comment.) 
 
THE HARD DECISIONS WILL COME NEXT YEAR 
 
¶4. (C/NF) Briggs pointed out that the tougher economic 
decisions for the Government will come early in 2009.  With 
revenue likely to fall dramatically, Rudd will need to decide 
which commitments he will fund and which he will postpone. 
It will be difficult for him to run a budget deficit because 
it would be unfavorably compared to the Howard-Costello 
balanced budgets. 
 
LIBERAL PARTY RENEWAL 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Briggs agreed that the Liberal-National Party 
Coalition was unlikely to win the next election.  New 
QCoalition was unlikely to win the next election.  New 
Australian governments are almost always reelected and there 
was no reason to believe 2010 would be any different.  The 
Liberal Party needed to undergo a renewal process, Briggs 
said, and bring in new MPs like him to replace many of the 
old Howard-era politicians.  This would take a few years. 
Downer and Costello both entered Parliament when the Liberal 
Party was in opposition, Briggs noted. 
 
INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS BATTLE HAS BEEN WON 
 
¶6. (C/NF) Briggs, who was Howard's workplace relations 
adviser when WorkChoices was passed in 2005, was dismissive 
of the Rudd Government's plan to rollback WorkChoices.  The 
battle had been won, Briggs maintained.  The real work had 
been done in 1996 when the wildcat strikes and the pattern 
bargaining and worst forms of union aggression had been 
outlawed.  Those changes were not going to be reversed by the 
Rudd Government's industrial relations proposals and were now 
accepted practice. 
 
¶7. (C/NF) COMMENT:  While Briggs is a political opponent of 
the Rudd Government, he is also a keen political observer 
with three years experience working a Prime Minister's 
office.   His criticisms of the economic stimulus package 
appear to be drawn straight from Liberal Party talking points 
- they mirror what Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull told 
the Ambassador about the stimulus package right after it was 
announced.  In fact, many economists argue that the generally 
well-received stimulus package (reftel), coming to about 1% 
of Australian GDP,  is more likely to be too small than too 
large.  Only elected last month, Briggs will have to spend 
some time on the backbenches.  He is already doing "doorstop" 
interviews and making appearances on television, however, so 
it is clear that the Liberal Party is grooming him for the 
future. 
 
CLUNE