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DE RUEHBY #1054/01 2940618
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P 200618Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0349
INFO RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 5676
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 3948
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 3885
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001054 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON AS
SUBJECT: PUBLIC SUPPORTS RUDD BUT PUNISHES LABOR IN STATE 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A) CANBERRA 1036 B) CANBERRA 956 C) SYDNEY 190 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: According to a new A.C. Nielsen poll, Prime 
Minister Kevin Rudd's approval rating has increased by 10 
points to 71 percent, the highest rating he has ever 
recorded.  Seventy-six percent of those surveyed supported 
Rudd's handling of the economic crisis and his economic 
package, and his lead over Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull 
as preferred prime minister increased by 15 points, to 64-26 
percent.  On October 18, in elections in the Australian 
Capital Territory (ACT), however, the Labor Party's vote fell 
by almost 10 percent as it lost its majority in the local 
assembly.  The chief beneficiary was the Green Party, which 
won three of the 17 seats in the ACT assembly, and now must 
decide whether to form a minority government with the 
Australian Labor Party (ALP) or the Liberals.  In New South 
Wales (NSW), the swing against the ALP in by-elections for 
three state parliamentary seats in Sydney was nearly 24 
percent in two of the seats.  The ALP lost only one seat but 
this was the largest swing in a federal or state by-election 
in 60 years.  The weekend's polling and election results 
indicate that while Kevin Rudd received an endorsement from 
the public for his economic moves, state ALP governments are 
suffering, and the Green Party's vote is increasing around 
the country.  END SUMMARY. 
 
IN NEW POLL, PUBLIC BACKS RUDD ON ECONOMY 
 
¶2. (U) An A.C. Nielsen poll, conducted from Thursday, October 
16 to Saturday, October 18 and released October 20, found 
that Rudd's approval rating had soared to 71 percent, up 10 
percent from the previous month and the highest rating he has 
ever recorded.  In this first poll taken since Rudd announced 
his economic responses to the worldwide financial turmoil 
(ref A), 76 percent backed the Prime Minister's handling of 
the crisis and the economic stimulus package he announced in 
response.  While Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull's 
approval rating also jumped 10 points to 55 percent, Rudd 
increased his lead as preferred prime minister by 15 points, 
opening up a 64 to 26 percent advantage.  The poll also 
indicated that the ALP was now more popular, with its support 
increasing to 46 percent and the Liberal-National Coalition's 
falling to 39 percent.  This erased the bounce the Coalition 
had received earlier when Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson as 
Opposition Leader (ref B).  While Turnbull's approval rating 
rose, his disapproval rating also increased by 4 points to 30 
percent.  By contrast, Rudd's disapproval rating dropped from 
31 to 20 percent. A.C. Nielsen's chief pollster noted to the 
press that "it doesn't matter how popular Turnbull is, Rudd 
is more popular." 
 
DROP IN LABOR VOTE BENEFITS THE GREENS IN ACT 
 
¶3. (SBU) In the equivalent of state-wide elections in the ACT 
on Saturday, support for the ALP dropped 9.3 percent from the 
previous election in 2004.  The ALP lost its majority of nine 
seats in the seventeeen-seat assembly and must now hope it 
can form a minority government with the Green Party, which 
secured 15.8 percent of the vote and two more seats in the 
legislative assembly - giving it three.  With the ALP and the 
Liberal Party each winning seven seats in the ACT Assembly, 
the Green Party will decide whether the ALP or the Liberal 
Party will form minority government.  While ALP Chief 
Minister Jon Stanhope has lost much of his popularity with 
the voters, the ALP still won a plurality of the vote, at 
Qthe voters, the ALP still won a plurality of the vote, at 
37.5 percent, and it will argue that the Greens should 
support Labor, its ideological ally.  The Liberal Party won 
31.2 of the vote, down 3.6 percent from 2004 and it will be 
hard for it to claim a mandate from the public to govern. 
 
BIG VOTING SWING AGAINST LABOR IN NEW SOUTH WALES BY-ELECTIONS 
 
¶4. (SBU) While there were four by-elections in NSW this 
weekend, the results for the three state seats in Sydney were 
the mostly closely watched.  The by-elections were caused by 
the resignations of former ALP Premier Morris Iemma and the 
resignations of his Deputy Premier and Health Minister.  In 
two seats, there was a remarkable swing of more than 23 
percent against the ALP and in the third, a 12 percent swing. 
 The ALP lost only one seat because the other two were very 
safe Labor electorates but the result, according to a 
political commentator for the Australian Broadcasting 
Corporation, was the worst for a sitting government in NSW 
history.  In the seat won by the Liberal Party, the 
commentator noted, one in four voters changed their vote from 
Labor to Liberal.  If this had been a state-wide election, 
the ALP would have been decimated.  The ALP had been 
expecting a bad result, given all the turmoil in the 
 
CANBERRA 00001054  002 OF 002 
 
 
government over electricity privatization and its continuing 
poor record of service delivery (ref C).  Fortunately for 
Labor, the next state-wide election is not until 2011, which 
pundits are already saying the ALP will lose. 
 
NATIONAL PARTY FADES FROM NSW CENTRAL COAST 
 
¶5. (SBU) In the fourth by-election on the NSW central coast 
an independent beat the National Party candidate.  This is 
the second independent to win this seat in what was once a 
stronghold of the National Party.  In contrast to Western 
Australia, where the National Party increased its strength, 
the party continues to grow weaker in NSW. 
 
COMMENT: GOOD NEWS FOR RUDD AND THE GREENS 
 
¶6. (SBU) Rudd had been criticized before the economic crisis 
as a "cautious, review-addicted policy wonk," as one media 
commentator put it.  He has been able to successfully portray 
his actions announcing a stimulus package and publicly 
deflecting anger against highly-compensated financial sector 
CEOs as bold, decisive leadership, and the public has 
responded.  As a bonus, Rudd trumped Opposition criticism of 
government underfunding of pensioners and their carers by 
upping their payments in the economic stimulus plan.  While 
Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull may have done the right 
thing by supporting the Government, he disappeared from the 
media as Rudd was responding to the crisis, giving Labor a 
clear field.  While the ACT, full of civil servants and 
academics, has always been more Left than the rest of 
Australia, the success of the Greens illustrates a growing 
trend.  In the NSW by-elections, the Greens polled 12.7 
percent.  In the Western Australia elections in September, 
they won 12 percent of the vote, and they recorded a high of 
13 percent in the latest Newspoll on national voting 
intention.  There are now 25 Green parliamentarians around 
the country, five federal senators and 19 state politicians. 
 
CLUNE