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C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000980 
 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR/CARC AND DRL FOR WENDY SILVERMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUMPREL RS GG AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: ELECTION UPATE, OCTOBER 10-14 
 
REF: A. BAKU 454 
     ¶B. BAKU 353 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL-ECONOMIC COUNSELOR ROB GARVERICK, for reasons 
1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1.    (SBU) SUMMARY: The Election Monitoring Center (EMC) and 
the Institute for Reporters' Freedom and Safety released 
pre-election, interim reports October 10 and 11, 
respectively, noting certain improvements in the election 
process, while raising concerns about the slow handling of 
complaints by the CEC, misuse of administrative resources, 
television bias for President Aliyev, and, more broadly, a 
general lack of political discourse in the campaign. 
Azerbaijan's CEC Chairman, in an October 13 meeting with 
Embassy officials, sought to clarify these points.  Local 
commentators, meanwhile, separately suggested the likelihood 
of fraud to bolster voter turnout and, in a broader sense, 
outlined poor prospects for the opposition. The EMC and the 
Norwegian Embassy observer missions experienced problems in 
registering election observers, though some issues were 
addressed. Traditional opposition parties held a rally 
October 11 to encourage a boycott of the election, but the 
appeal lacked cohesion.  The Open Society Party, which is not 
fielding a presidential candidate, decided last week it would 
endorse Aliyev for reelection, to the chagrin of other 
oppositionists.   END SUMMARY 
 
EMC ISSUES REPORT AND NOTES REGISTRATION PROBLEMS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2.   (SBU) The Election Monitoring Center (EMC), the 
independent monitoring group which was granted registration 
by the GOAJ in February and subsequently deregistered (see 
REF A), on October 10 released its second interim report on 
findings during this second stage of its long-term 
observation mission. EMC noted a significant improvement in 
the level of activity of Constituency and Precinct Election 
Commissions but remains concerned with the Central Election 
Commission's (CEC) slow investigation of complaints, noting 
such complaints are not being heard by the official experts 
group which was created by amendments to the election code. 
The report identifies several problems with voter lists in 
specific constituencies and records a list of twelve 
instances of government officials pressuring citizens to vote 
for President Aliyev. 
 
¶3. (C) Experts from the International Foundation for Election 
Systems (IFES) agreed with this assessment of the CEC's 
mishandling of election complaints, and have been working 
with the CEC over the past week to correct this problem. 
According to an IFES expert, the Election Code states that 
the "Mass Media Council," which has handled campaign 
complaints so far, is meant to deal only with complaints 
about access to media, not larger campaign-related 
complaints.  Campaign complaints are meant to be handled by 
an "expert group" created for this purpose.  Embassy 
officials raised these concerns October 13 with CEC Chairman 
Mazahir Panahov, who continued to insist that campaign 
complaints should be handled initially by the "Mass Media 
Council" rather than the expert group.  Panahov agreed, 
however, that Election Day complaints by voters would be 
addressed by the experts group. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) While the report notes no problems with 
registration of observers overall, the EMC reported to the 
Embassy late on October 10 that the body was now experiencing 
problems registering observers in two constituencies. 
Embassy officials worked with the CEC to remedy the problem 
in one constituency, but the Constituency Election Commission 
in Zagatala still refuses to register 8 EMC observers, 
claiming their documentation was late.  While this is only 
one Constituency, EMC reports that the lack of registered 
observers in these areas will affect the outcome of the 
Parallel Vote Tabulation. 
 
¶5.  (C) Norwegian Embassy in Baku's First Secretary Richard 
Scarborough has reported to Embassy officials that the 
Norwegian Embassy was unable to register 10 Norwegian 
citizens that were supposed to help the Norwegian Embassy 
monitor the election.  According to Scarborough, the CEC 
first claimed that they did not receive the proper 
documentation, and when presented with the proper 
documentation then claimed that the documentation was 
falsified, as some of the applicants were not full time 
employees of the Embassy.  The list of denied applicants 
includes two members of Norway's Helsinki Commission, who 
were also denied accreditation in 2005.  This information 
contradicts what CEC Chairman Panahov told Embassy officials 
on October 13, which was that all international observers who 
applied for accreditation were given it. 
 
COMMENTATORS OFFER DOWNCAST DEPICTION OF POLITICS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Embassy officers attended a panel discussion of 
local political experts on October 10 which featured 
commentators Ilgar Mammedov, Leyla Aliyeva, and Erkin 
Gadirli. The panelists each expected mass falsification to 
bolster what is thought would be the lowest voter turnout 
since independence. While Ilgar Mammedov said local 
authorities would compel people in their areas to vote, he 
agreed with Leyla Aliyeva that fraud is being 
centrally-directed. He also identified the public opinion 
polls showing not only high support for Aliyev but also high 
probable voter turnout as efforts to prepare public reaction 
for the falsified numbers after the polls close on Wednesday. 
Following Erkin Gadirli's comments on the lack of party 
politics in Azerbaijan, Aliyeva said she did not think the 
opposition's problem was the over-personalization of the 
parties or lack of change in their ranks, but rather the 
fundamental lack of space for pluralism built into the 
system. Both Mammedov, who argued the opposition parties were 
totally discredited and finished in politics, and Gadirli 
said they see very little hope of change coming from within 
the system. 
 
¶7.  (U) Later that day, Mammedov commented at panel sponsored 
by the International Center for Journalists that the limited 
public space available for criticism of the President or the 
government in opposition papers and on the internet should 
not be seen as an achievement, as some in government suggest, 
but rather as a sign that independent voices have lost ground 
in the past five years. Other panelists included Member of 
Parliament Aydin Mirzazade, the Norwegian Ambassador, and 
representatives of advocacy groups and the media. A 
journalist from Zerkalo described the decline in the 
availability of advertising income for opposition and 
independent print outlets in the last five years as a major 
problem for establishing a pluralist press, noting that the 
pro-government Trend news agency can pay its journalists five 
times what opposition Turan news agency can. 
 
MEDIA MONITORING REPORTS 
------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (U) Media monitoring reports released over the weekend by 
the Institute for Reporters, Freedom and Safety (IRFS) and 
Reporters Without Borders (RSF) were critical of the election 
coverage by most Azerbaijani media outlets. IFRS noted a lack 
of vibrant political discourse on television and a general 
absence of critical mass media underscoring the inability of 
Aliyev's opponents to pose questions to him directly. While 
print media offered a greater diversity of views, the 
coverage on state-controlled TV and most private channels 
demonstrated bias in favor of Aliyev. Public TV did reduce 
its reporting on the incumbent's activities and allocated 
some news coverage to other candidates and ANS provided the 
most diversity in its coverage of the candidates. RSF also 
noted a lack of political debate and reported that the media 
outlets it monitored from September 21 to 26 covered mostly 
the activities of the first family, emphasized government 
reforms, and ignored controversial social topics and the 
government refusal of an opposition rally in Baku. 
 
BOYCOTTING OPPOSITION PARTIES HOLD MEETING 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (U) On October 11 the five opposition parties which are 
boycotting the election held a meeting in Baku to discuss 
their views.  About 170 people attended the meeting, forcing 
the organizers to move the meeting from a conference room to 
the courtyard outside Musavat Party Headquarters.  The 
leaders of the five parties denounced President Aliyev and 
encouraged voters to boycott the election.  An Embassy 
official who attended the meeting witnessed no police or 
security services present, and the meeting was conducted 
peacefully.  Leaders of the five opposition parties, however, 
were not yet able to agree on a path forward. 
 
OPPOSITION PARTY REPORTEDLY BACKS ALIYEV 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) Exiled Opposition leader Rasul Guliyev's Open Society 
Party (OSP), which is not fielding a candidate in the 
election, announced last week it would endorse President 
Ilham Aliyev's re-election bid. Local press quoted acting 
party Chairman Akif Sahbazov as saying the party would remain 
in opposition but supported stability as well as Aliyev's 
foreign policy and policy on Nagorno-Karabakh. 
 
¶11. (U) Various other parties have reacted to OSP's decision 
in different ways. Opposition People's Front Party, also not 
participating in the election, expressed regret and said OSP 
had &no right to speak on behalf of the opposition.8 A 
spokesman for Musavat, another party not fielding a 
candidate, attributed the decision to pro-government forces 
within the party's structures, arguing Guliyev does not 
support the authorities. The official also predicted these 
members will not override Guliyev's position. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12.  (C) The fact that EMC has been able to gain 
accreditation for over 1500 observers despite de-registration 
as an NGO last spring is a positive sign.  Some last minute 
concerns about the organization's role on election day have 
been voiced, but overall the GOAJ seems to be listening to 
concerns and complaints from the international community and 
working to address them.  The continued existence of problems 
in some regions, however, indicates that local officials may 
not understand the need to work with observers.  In another 
worrying sign for future cooperation, the CEC Chairman 
refused to look at the most recent EMC report when an Embassy 
official referred to it, stating that EMC does not have legal 
standing in Azerbaijan. Additionally, the refusal of the CEC 
to register observers from Norway is a troubling sign that 
the GOAJ is inconsistent in accreditation practices. 
 
¶13.  (C) On the domestic political front, it remains unclear 
whether the OSP decision to endorse President Aliyev's 
campaign comes from party officials in Azerbaijan or from 
Guliyev himself. The endorsement is an abrupt change from the 
party's previous position but may not be entirely surprising 
considering the state of and prospects for opposition parties 
in Azerbaijan or Guliyev's life in exile. The OSP, a small 
party even among Azerbaijan's small opposition parties, is 
the result of a 2006 break in Guliyev's Azerbaijan Democratic 
Party, now led by Guliyev's former deputy Sardar Jalaloglu. 
It is possible party officials in Azerbaijan are seeking to 
reach an understanding with the government. It is also 
possible Guliyev himself recognizes the dim prospects for any 
return to the political scene and is seeking instead 
permission to return to Azerbaijan, even temporarily, in a 
way that the government does not perceive as threatening (see 
REF B). 
DERSE