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INFO RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2030

UNCLAS TORONTO 000288 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON CA
SUBJECT:  MISSION CANADA ASSESSES ELECTION 2008 
 
Ref:  A. Montreal 268   B. Toronto 284   C. Toronto 285 
       ¶D.  Ottawa 1258   E. Ottawa 1216   F. Vancouver 247 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  A Mission Canada-wide digital video conference 
(DVC) on September 29 resulted in a consensus assessment that the 
Conservatives will pick up additional seats in the October 14 
Canadian federal elections, but not yet  that the Conservatives will 
gain enough seats for a majority.  Starting with the Maritimes, the 
net effect of volatility in the region could be a one-seat gain for 
the NDP, at the expense of the Liberals.  The seat distribution in 
Nunavut and the area around Quebec City will likely stay static. 
The Conservatives look likely to gain one seat in the Montreal area, 
and the New Democratic Party (NDP) may gain one seat.  The 
Conservatives seem likely to take 6-10 seats from the Liberals in 
Ontario - with an outside chance of gaining as many as 18-20 - as 
well as to gain one seat in Manitoba.  The Conservatives may pick up 
one NDP seat in the Northwest Territories, with no changes in 
Alberta or Saskatchewan.  In the west, the Conservatives may gain 
four seats in British Columbia.  The Conservatives need 155 seats to 
form a majority government; much may ride on the performance of the 
five party leaders in the October 1 and 2 televised debates.  The 
Liberals will likely remain the Official Opposition, despite the 
best efforts of the New Democratic Party (NDP) to position itself as 
the future natural opposition to the Conservatives.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) DCM (in Winnipeg) and PolMinCouns (in Ottawa) on September 
29 co-chaired the monthly DVC among Mission Canada reporting 
officers, as well as WHA/CAN officers, with a focus this month on 
the October 14 Canadian federal election (reftels).  PolMinCouns 
reiterated that the USG remains non-partisan in the ongoing campaign 
and that Canadian voters alone have the say in which party will win 
and form the next government.  The U.S. nonetheless remains 
interested in the campaign dynamics and eventual outcome.  He 
expressed thanks to all Mission elements for substantive reporting 
as well as contributions to the new Election Blog on the Embassy's 
Intranet site.  He noted that conventional wisdom continues to point 
toward a Conservative victory, with some observers increasingly 
predicting a possible majority in the House of Commons.  He added 
that there may still be many ups-and-downs in the campaign, with the 
possibility especially for missteps by any of the party leaders 
during the televised October 1 and 2 public debates. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
HALIFAX - NDP MAY GAIN A SEAT IN ATLANTIC CANADA 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In ConGen Halifax's jurisdiction, the Conservatives 
currently have three seats in Newfoundland and Labrador, and the 
Liberals have four seats.  Thanks in part to Premier Danny William's 
"Anything But Conservative" campaign, the Tories look set to lose 
all of their Newfoundland and Labrador seats - two to the Liberals 
and one to the NDP.  The Conservatives may gain back a seat in Nova 
Scotia, taken from the Liberals.  Green Party Leader Elizabeth May's 
attempt to unseat Tory Defense Minister Peter MacKay in the Central 
Nova riding will likely fail.  The Liberals should hold on to all 
four of the seats in Prince Edward Island, and the Conservatives 
will likely take two seats from the Liberals in New Brunswick.  The 
sum total of these shifts would be a one seat gain by the NDP in 
Atlantic Canada, at the expense of the Liberals.  According to 
ConGen Halifax, the Liberal Party in Atlantic Canada seems to be 
dragged down by the party's national leadership and by the unpopular 
Green Shift plan, and the NDP may be poised to capitalize on the 
Liberal's weakness.  Other hot button issues in the region include 
broad economic concerns and the Canada's military presence in 
Afghanistan, manned heavily by Atlantic Canadians. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
QUEBEC CITY - LITTLE ROOM FOR CONSERVATIVE GAINS 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶4. (SBU) ConGen Quebec City sees little room for Conservative gains 
in its consular district, which includes much of Quebec province, as 
well as the Arctic territory of Nunavut.  Specifically, the 
Conservatives' recent plan to increase sentences for youthful 
offenders has not played well in Quebec, nor have PM Harper's 
comments on cuts to the arts.  New, more rigorous national voter 
identification requirements might also depress voter turnout in 
Nunavut, where relatively fewer people have photo identification. 
In addition to the federal election, Nunavut is in the midst of a 
territorial election, confusing some voters.  Quebec City predicts 
that the Liberals will hold their seat in Nunavut. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
MONTREAL - CONSERVATIVE CONFIDENCE MISPLACED? 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In Montreal, local Conservative contacts are confident 
that the party will win additional seats in the election.  However, 
urban Montreal has almost no Liberal seats identified as possible 
Tory upsets.  Only one Liberal riding - Lac St. Louis - seems ripe 
for Conservative plucking.  The Liberals are not campaigning hard in 
E 
the Montreal area, and the Bloc Quebecois and Conservatives look set 
to retain the seats they already have.  In rural Quebec, however, 
the Conservatives might benefit from Bloc weakness and Liberal 
disorganization (ref A).  While Quebeckers know that the federal 
budget surplus disappeared under Harper, they also believe that Dion 
would be bad for the economy and are wary of possible new taxes. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
TORONTO - POTENTIAL FOR CONSERVATIVE GAINS 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) ConGen Toronto's contacts across the political spectrum 
predict Conservative gains in Ontario.  Estimates of Conservative 
pickups range anywhere from six to 20 seats.  Despite an overall 
atmosphere of Tory confidence, it is not clear from where the gains 
would come.  The Conservatives are unlikely to break through in 
Toronto itself, and other than a few ridings, the vote-rich suburbs 
of Toronto are not clearly trending Tory.  A weak national Liberal 
campaign depresses Liberal turnout, however, might allow the Tories 
to move ahead in the seat count.  (For a more detailed analysis of 
some Ontario key and bellwether ridings, see ref B and ref C.)  The 
economy is a major issue in Ontario, especially in southwestern 
Ontario, hit hard by job losses in the automobile industry. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
WINNIPEG - ECONOMY FOCUS OF LOW-INTENSITY CAMPAIGN 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The American Presence Post in Winnipeg has detected little 
local enthusiasm for the Canadian federal election, as many voters 
are more focused on the U.S. election.  Manitobans are taking the 
current economic uncertainty in stride, confident that the 
resource-rich province will weather any downturn.  The Conservatives 
might pick up one seat in Manitoba.  Crime and law and order remain 
key issues. 
 
------------------------------------- 
CALGARY - THE WEST STAYS CONSERVATIVE 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) ConGen Calgary's consular district includes the provinces 
of Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as the Northwest Territories. 
The Conservative Party currently holds 13 of 14 seats in 
Saskatchewan and all 28 seats in Alberta.  ConGen Calgary does not 
see that changing, but predicts that the Conservatives might 
successfully challenge the NDP for the sole seat in the Northwest 
Territories. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
VANCOUVER - GREEN SHIFT HELPS CONSERVATIVES? 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Conservatives currently hold half of the 36 ridings in 
British Columbia, and ConGen Vancouver predicts that the Tories 
might gain another four seats.  The Tories will benefit from the 
Liberals' collapse in the area; the Liberals' Green Shift plan is 
especially unpopular in British Columbia, which has its own already 
disliked provincial carbon tax.  In addition, the Conservatives will 
have an edge on economic and crime issues.  The NDP looks poised to 
capitalize on the Liberals' misfortunes, and may add a few seats in 
B.C.  Blair Wilson, the disgraced former Liberal who joined the 
Green Party in August, giving the Greens their first seat in 
Parliament, will likely lose his seat.  (For a more detailed 
analysis of the election in B.C., see ref F). 
 
---------- 
OPPOSITION 
---------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) None of the reporting officers expressed any expectation 
that the NDP could do well enough to overtake the Liberals as the 
Official Opposition, despite the Liberals' organizational, 
leadership, and financial woes and the high profile campaigning of 
NDP leader Jack Layton.  The NDP looks poised, however, to increase 
its representation somewhat, while the Greens will enjoy a jump in 
their popular vote, but once again remain poorly positioned to win 
seats. 
 
NAY