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RR RUEHJS
DE RUEHJS #0103/01 2520045
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 080045Z SEP 08
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0283
INFO RHMFIUU/DHS IP BP WASH DC
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0269
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0288

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000103 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR CA/FPP, CA/EX, EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS CMGT KFRD ID
SUBJECT: SURABAYA B1/B2 VISA VALIDATION STUDY 
 
REF: A:  07 SURABAYA 0009, B:  08 JAKARTA 1192 
 
¶1.  Summary:  The Consular Section of the U.S. Consulate General 
in Surabaya recently conducted a validation study of B1/B2 visa 
issuances for the six month period between December 1, 2006 and 
May 31, 2007.  The study results were primarily based on queries 
of Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Arrival-Departure 
Information System (ADIS) and Automated Targeting System (ATS) 
records.  Phone calls were also made to the residential and 
business numbers of each of the individuals included in the 
study.  Based on the results, there was a five (5) percent 
overstay rate.  Sixteen percent of visa recipients had not yet 
utilized their visas at the time the validation study was 
conducted.  End Summary. 
 
Methodology 
------------------ 
¶2.  The validation study was restricted to B1/B2 visas issued to 
Indonesian applicants and did not include third country 
nationals.  The sample was selected from issuances during the 
six-month period from December 1, 2006, to May 31, 2007. 
Therefore, those individuals who planned to travel within six 
months of visa issuance should have returned to Indonesia before 
electronic departure records were reviewed in July 2008.  There 
were a total of 2,314 B1/B2 visas issued during the study 
period.  Although the sample size was not 800 as suggested in 
CA/FPP instructions, the validation study sample was compiled 
based on the instructions contained in the CA/FPP document, "How 
to use the CCD Reports and Excel Spreadsheet to General Random 
Samples of Visa Applicants for Use in a Validation Study."  A 
total of 584 visa issuances were included in the sample, 
providing a confidence level of 95 percent and a confidence 
interval of +/- 2.1 based on a projected overstay rate of 10 
percent. 
 
¶3.  Either the Consular Consolidated Database (CCD) records or 
the Non-Immigrant Visa Application forms of all visa recipients 
included in the sample were reviewed by consular staff.  The 
Office of Fraud Prevention Programs in the Bureau of Consular 
Affairs (CA/FPP) reviewed DHS Arrival-Departure Information 
System (ADIS) and Automated Targeting System (ATS) records for 
all visa recipients included in the study.  Consular Section 
staff also divided the issuance records and made phone calls to 
the residential and business numbers included on the visa 
application forms.  DHS records were very valuable in conducting 
the validation study and, in most cases, either ADIS or ATS were 
able to provide the necessary records to confirm arrival and 
departure.  In a few cases, phone calls were successful in 
confirming a visa holder's return to Indonesia when no ADIS or 
ATS departure records were available.  Additionally, there were 
several inconclusive cases in which no departure records existed 
and phone calls were also unsuccessful in confirming the 
whereabouts of the visa holders, cases which were counted as 
confirmed non-returns by post. 
 
Results 
--------- 
¶4.  Table of Findings: 
 
Confirmed Overstay:  5 percent (29 total) 
Confirmed Return:  79 percent (462 total) 
Never Traveled:  16 percent (93 total) 
Total Sample:  100 percent (584 total) 
 
Analysis 
---------- 
¶5.  The validation study results demonstrated an overstay rate 
of five (5) percent.  Sixteen (16) percent were determined to 
have never used their U.S. visas.   Among the confirmed 
overstays, 50 percent were female and 50 percent were male. 
Additionally, 50 percent of overstays were single, 39 percent 
were married, and 11 percent were either widowed or divorced. 
The most prominent age group among those confirmed as overstays 
were those more than 50 years of age, accounting for 41 percent 
of overstays; nine of whom were married and three of whom were 
either divorced or widowed.  Approximately 42 percent of those 
over the age of 50 who overstayed their visas reported having at 
least one child in the United States.  The next most significant 
age group for overstays was those age 20 to 29.  This group 
accounted for 38 percent of overstays and were all single. 
Among the total of 29 overstays, 21 percent had previously 
traveled to the United States compared to 34 percent of the 
total sample. 
 
Comparison with Past Validation Study 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶6.  The previous validation study (Ref A), which was conducted 
in 2007, sampled B1/B2 visas issued during the six month period 
from December 1, 2005, to May 31, 2006.  That validation study 
used a sample size of 176 issuances and relied primarily on 
phone calls to verify returns.  Based on the 2007 validation 
 
SURABAYA 00000103  002 OF 002 
 
 
study, there was a 6.8 percent confirmed overstay rate.  The 
current 2008 validation study, which covered the six month 
period from December 1, 2006, to May 31, 2007, and demonstrated 
a confirmed overstay rate of five (5) percent, is considered to 
be a more accurate study due to the use of a larger sample size 
and reliance on DHS arrival and departure records as well as 
phone calls.  The adjusted refusal rate B1/B2 visas adjudicated 
in Surabaya during the most recent validation study period was 
42 percent compared to an adjusted refusal rate of 36 percent 
during the previous validation study period. 
 
Conclusion 
--------------- 
¶7.  Post believes the results of the latest B1/B2 validation 
study and the confirmed overstay rate of five (5) percent 
indicate that adjudication standards are generally appropriate. 
The confirmed overstay rate was slightly better than the target 
in the 2010 Mission Strategic Plan of six (6) percent for 2008. 
The study demonstrated, however, that applicants over the age of 
50 as well as single applicants between the age of 20 and 29 may 
deserve closer scrutiny.  Lastly, Post would like to thank 
Jakarta Consular Officer Pablo Valdez for his help in setting up 
the validation study and generating the random sample used for 
the study. 
MCCLELLAND