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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000322 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV GM
SUBJECT: GERMANY/BAVARIAN ELECTIONS: CATASTROPHIC CSU 
LOSSES MARKS END OF AN ERA AND FORESHADOWS POLITICAL CHANGES 
 
Classified By: Consul General Eric Nelson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  The Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria 
lost 17 points off its 2003 result and brought home only 43 
percent of the vote in September 28 state elections.  The CSU 
also lost its 46-year absolute majority in the state 
parliament.  Although the CSU will make no immediate 
personnel changes, the party will draw many lessons over time 
from this historic loss.  One likely outcome will be 
increased CSU assertiveness at the national level to 
re-establish its image as a defender of Bavarian interests 
within the federal government.  This will make the CSU a more 
demanding partner for Chancellor Merkel, at a time when her 
other Grand Coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, 
also is staking out its own positions in the run-up to next 
year's national elections.  The "catastrophic loss" for the 
CSU, however, translated into excitement for the Free 
Democrats (FDP) and Freie Waehler (Independents), who both 
made big gains.  The CSU could form a coalition with either 
party, but early indications suggest the FDP is more likely. 
The SPD, which actually lost some ground and returned its 
worst result ever in Bavaria, is trying to focus attention on 
the CSU's fall and to downplay the election as a reflection 
on the new SPD national leadership duo of Frank-Walter 
Steinmeier and Franz Muentefering.  The parties will caucus 
September 29 to chart new courses across this unknown 
territory.  End Summary 
 
A CSU NIGHTMARE - BUT OTHERS GAIN 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) "Well beyond any worst case scenario we ever 
considered" is how Bavarian Minister President Guenter 
Beckstein (CSU) characterized the "catastrophic" 43.4 percent 
showing of the CSU in the September 28 Bavarian elections, 
down 17 points from an historic high five years ago.  The CSU 
must seek a coalition partner in the Bavarian Parliament 
(Landtag) for the first time in 46 years.  On "a painful 
day," the CSU has had to swallow the message that "the voters 
still trust the CSU to lead Bavaria but do not want us to do 
it alone any longer," Beckstein and his team admitted in a 
series of interviews after the polls closed.  SPD leader 
Franz Maget deflected suggestions that the SPD's historic low 
reflected poorly on the new national leadership team of 
Foreign Minister Steinmeier and incoming SPD Chairman 
Muentefering.  He focused instead on what he said was "really 
a Bavarian election."  He was beaming, not because the SPD 
had lost ground and got only 18.6 percent of the vote (down 
one point), but because "so many voters had broken the habit 
of voting for the CSU."  Those voters crossed over to the 
FDP, with 8 percent, up 5 points, and the Freie Waehler 
(Independents), with 10.2 percent, up more than 5 points. 
Bavaria remains politically center-right by splitting 60 
percent of the vote among these parties.  The Left Party got 
just over 4 percent, a result that was an improvement for the 
party but that leaves them under the five-percent hurdle. 
The Greens held even with 9.4 percent, up about 2 points. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The CSU lost its absolute majority only five years 
after winning two-thirds of the seats under Edmund Stoiber. 
The CSU has announced that it will conduct a "merciless 
review" of the causes.  Some commentators have identified the 
apparent loss of CSU clout at the national level as a reason 
for voter disenchantment.  The CSU leadership's attempt to 
revive a tax break for commuters -- which was brushed off by 
Chancellor Merkel and other CDU heavy hitters -- was 
emblematic of the CSU's dwindling influence.  Poorly handled 
state-level issues like the state-wide ban on smoking (which 
alienated owners of small restaurants and bars, a critical 
part of the CSU-friendly milieu) also played a role.  After 
caucusing on the mornnig after, CSU chairman Erwin Huber has 
announced that the party would make no immediate personnel 
changes.  He said he had refused to accept the resignation of 
party General Secretary Christine Hardethauer. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The "Freie Waehler" (FW), a collection of 
independent candidates without obvious ideological bent, and 
the FDP each capitalized on these diffuse feelings of 
discontent, picking up ten points between them.  The FDP 
returns to the Landtag after a 14-year absence.  The party 
has been offering itself as a coalition partner and this is 
the most likely outcome, plus it would give the FDP a 
tailwind for the 2009 Bundestag election campaign.  As for 
the FW, commentators argue that theirs was a protest vote, 
especially since the party has no official regional 
"platform."  They are a communal party, traditionally 
focusing on local issues, and this was its first time running 
state-wide.  The Greens held steady, arguing that the CSU was 
punished for its national position on genetically modified 
organisms as expressed by Federal Minister for Food Horst 
Seehofer. 
 
 
MUNICH 00000322  002 OF 002 
 
 
NATIONAL REVERBERATIONS 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Bavaria's political revolution will have serious 
implications for Germany's national political system. 
Historically, Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU has benefited 
from a strong showing by their sister party, the CSU, in 
conservative Bavaria.  The CSU's dramatic decline now 
threatens the prospects of a possible CDU/CSU-FDP coalition 
government after the 2009 election.  Such a coalition is 
questionable if the CSU is not polling comfortably over 50 
per cent.  The chance of such a coalition becoming reality is 
now less likely.  A weakened CSU could be burdened by 
infighting; it could also spar with the CDU, blaming it for 
inadequate support in advance of the September 28 elections. 
 
 
¶6. (C) The federal Grand Coalition will now worry about the 
political math in the Bundesrat (Upper House), especially the 
decline of its majority.  Currently, the Grand Coalition 
(CDU/CSU and SPD) has 41 of 69 votes in the Bundesrat.  As a 
result of the loss of CSU's majority in Bavaria, the CSU must 
now enter into a coalition, most likely with the FDP.  Since 
this coalition arrangement will not reflect the composition 
of the Grand Coalition on a national scale, it will lose 
another six votes, resulting in a razor-thin majority in the 
Bundesrat (35 of 69 votes).  Adding salt to the open wound, 
if CDU Minister-President Roland Koch (Hesse) lost power to 
an SPD-Green coalition, then Merkel's coalition could be 
reduced to a minority in the Bundesrat.  This would further 
hamstring Merkel's legislative agenda but would not 
necessarily lead directly to a collapse of the Grand 
Coalition. 
 
¶7.  (C) Regarding the outlook for the election of the federal 
president in May 2009, the Bavarian returns will likely have 
no direct effect on incumbent President Horst Koehler. 
Either of the CSU's coalition partners, the FW and the FDP, 
are more likely to support Koehler than SPD candidate Gesine 
Schwan. 
 
NO REASON FOR REJOICING IN THE SPD 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) FM Steinmeier, SPD Chancellor candidate, said 
September 28 that "this earthquake result will affect the 
party landscape nationwide."  It does not appear, however, to 
have lifted the SPD out of its polling doldrums.  The 
Bavarian SPD failed to capitalize on the political tailwind 
generated by the new SPD leadership in Berlin.  Despite 
several campaign appearances by Frank-Walter Steinmeier and 
Franz Muentefering, Bavarian voters apparently remained 
unimpressed by the SPD.  The SPD therefore has focused on the 
decline of the CSU and future infighting between the CDU and 
CSU.  The Muentefering-Steinmeier duopoly will be pondering 
the result at a time when they are attempting to reinvigorate 
the SPD with a new leadership and new platform.  The Left 
Party's respectable showing even in conservative Bavaria is 
also an indicator of the SPD's failure to stem the rise of 
the Left Party. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C) With its demotion from hegemon to merely the dominant 
power in Bavaria, the CSU is the victim of its own economic 
and development successes in the region it ruled alone for 46 
years.  Bavarian politics is starting to reflect life in the 
modern, successful Bavaria, more complicated and colorful 
than ever before, and a leader in Germany in many fields. 
Chancellor Merkel and the CDU now must reassess the remaining 
power of their once monolithic partner, yet another of the 
reverberations of shifting political forces in Germany a year 
ahead of the next federal election. 
NELSON