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DE RUEHKL #0805/01 2561233
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 121233Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1639
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000805 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2018 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MARR MY
SUBJECT: PM ABDULLAH'S POSITION ERODED AFTER TUMULTUOUS WEEK 
 
REF: KUALA LUMPUR 787 
 
Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 (b 
 and d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi has seen his political 
position eroded during a tumultuous week of mounting 
challenges from within his United Malay National Organization 
(UMNO), his coalition partners, and the opposition.  While 
struggling to regain cohesion within his National Front (BN) 
coalition in the face of inter-racial tensions, UMNO leaders 
have raised new questions over Abdullah's 2010 transition to 
his deputy Najib Tun Razak, creating fresh doubts that 
Abdullah can gain his party's reelection in December. 
Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim dispatched his lieutenants to 
Taiwan with the avowed aim to complete talks with BN members 
of Parliament who would crossover to bring down Abdullah's 
government.  At the same time, the Opposition alliance stated 
the September 16 deadline to topple the government could 
slip.  The chief of the armed forces clarified that the 
military would remain apolitical, but could be called out via 
proper legal channels to assist with internal security. 
Abdullah emerged from an UMNO meeting to state that the 
government could use the Internal Security Act (ISA), and its 
detention without trial provisions, to preserve internal 
security; on September 12 the government made good on this 
threat by detaining controversial blogger Raja Petra.  End 
Summary. 
 
RACIST COMMENTS PROMPT UMNO LEADERS MEETING 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) To quell growing animosity and tension between UMNO 
and its ethnic Chinese partners in the National Front 
coalition resulting from caustic racist comments from Penang 
UMNO division leader Ahmad Ismail, PM Abdullah was forced to 
hold a meeting of the BN Supreme Council on September 9 and a 
gathering of the UMNO Supreme Council on September 10.  The 
BN leaders referred the matter to UMNO to take action against 
its own member.  After a three hour meeting, the UMNO Supreme 
Council decided to suspend Ahmad from the party for three 
years, stripping him of all of his official duties.  Despite 
this ruling, Ahmad remained defiant and suggested his Penang 
division quickly would create a new role for him.  Some of 
Abdullah's detractors in the party, like Selangor warlord 
Khir Toyo, came to Ahmad's defense.  The Malaysian Chinese 
Association (MCA) and the Chinese-dominated Gerakan party 
voiced their appreciation for UMNO's decision, but also 
called for a stop to further racially incendiary remarks. 
 
2010 TRANSITION UNRAVELING? 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) As Abdullah and UMNO attempted to douse heated racial 
tensions that damaged the BN coalition, this week also 
witnessed the fraying of UMNO's acquiescence to Abdullah's 
plan to hand over power to DPM Najib in 2010.  The most 
direct blow came from International Trade and Industry 
Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, an UMNO Vice President who is 
considered a potential candidate for Deputy Prime Minister 
should Abdullah step down.  Muhyiddin stated on September 10 
that Abdullah should resign well before the June 2010 
transition date.  Muhyiddin noted that the initial promise of 
this two-month old proposal, meant to assuage concerns about 
Abdullah's sagging popularity and party support, had now 
"sunk away".  Reacting during a televised press encounter, 
Abdullah was visibly angered by Muhyiddin's comment. 
Abdullah questioned why Muhyiddin would challenge the 
transition plan when the UMNO Supreme Council had already 
approved the transition and its timing.  On September 12, 
Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak appeared to contradict 
Abdullah and shift his position away from Abdullah's deal, 
stating that delegates at the December UMNO party elections 
should approve the transition and its timetable.  Other 
important UMNO leaders have revived their calls to eliminate 
high quotas for the number of nominations needed to contest 
leadership positions in the party polls, a system which now 
heavily favors Abdullah. 
 
MAHATHIR SEEKS RETURN TO UMNO 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Complicating matters further for Abdullah, former PM 
and former UMNO President Mahathir, who quit UMNO on May 19 
after expressing disgust with Abdullah's leadership, is 
considering returning to the party.  A smiling UMNO Vice 
President Muhyiddin told reporters September 9 that Mahathir 
was persuaded by him, Tengku Razaleigh and several other 
veteran UMNO leaders at a private meeting at Mahathir's 
residence on September 6 to rejoin UMNO to help "fix the 
problems" afflicting the party.  Foreign Minister and senior 
UMNO official Rais Yatim later joined other party leaders in 
welcoming Mahathir's proposed return to the fold.  Mahathir 
reportedly is now backing his former nemesis, Tengku 
Razaleigh, to unseat Abdullah in the December UMNO party 
elections.  Commenting tersely on the possible return of 
Mahathir, whose harsh criticisms of the Prime Minister 
continue unabated, Abdullah stated September 11 that the UMNO 
Supreme Council will decide on the issue as "this is a party 
matter." 
 
THE OPPOSITION ATTEMPTS TO COUNTER TAIWAN PLOY... 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim meanwhile sought to 
keep the pressure on UMNO and BN by dispatching four senior 
officials from this Peoples Justice Party's (PKR) to Taiwan, 
supposedly to meet with BN MP's who may crossover to bring 
down Abdullah's government.  BN had hastily arranged a "study 
tour" to Taiwan for BN members of Parliament, September 8-17, 
in what is widely viewed as a ploy to thwart September 16 
crossovers.  PKR said their officials would attempt to 
finalize the crossovers (the opposition requires 30 to claim 
the majority and topple Abdullah's government). 
 
OPPOSITION ADMITS SEPTEMBER 16 COULD SLIP 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) As PKR announced its officials were going to Taiwan 
to finalize crossovers, the opposition People's Alliance 
(Pakatan) also issued a statement suggesting that the 
September 16 deadline for toppling BN could slip.  The 
three-party alliance of PKR, the Democratic Action Party 
(DAP) and the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS), in a September 
11 release, explained that the September 16 deadline may have 
to be postponed due to the Taiwan trip by the BN MPs. 
However, the coalition expressed confidence that a change of 
federal government "would happen soon."  Subsequently, BN 
officials announced that many of the MPs would be returning 
early from Taiwan, hinting that this should eliminate excuses 
for Anwar not meeting his September 16 deadline. 
 
ARMED FORCES TO STAY OUT OF POLITICS, BUT STILL ON CALL 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Malaysian Armed Forces Chief General Abdul Aziz 
Zainal stated at a press conference September 11 that the 
armed forces have been and will remain apolitical.  The 
General gave his assurance following questions and criticism 
from opposition and civil society quarters over his statement 
on September 9, urging the government to take stern action 
against anyone stoking racial sentiments in the country and 
thereby threatening national unity.  "The armed forces are 
highly professional and apolitical", Abdul Aziz clarified on 
September 11, and would only get involved in internal matters 
if requested through the legal process by the authorities or 
police.  He explained, "Our (the military's) secondary role 
is to support the police and government agencies in any form 
of operations where our presence is requested -- such as for 
internal security, humanitarian and disaster relief 
operations.8  General Abdul Aziz refused to comment when 
asked by reporters whether he would support a new government, 
adding "I do not know of any (impending) changes in 
government." 
 
ABDULLAH THREATENS USE OF THE INTERNAL SECURITY ACT 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) PM Abdullah stated September 10, following the UMNO 
Supreme Council meeting, that he did not rule out the 
possibility of invoking the Internal Security Act (ISA), 
which allows detention without trial for those who threaten 
national security.  He added that the Home Minister, who has 
the authority to approve ISA detentions, would "think twice 
or even three times" before deciding to take that step, but 
"if the minister thinks that it is an appropriate action to 
be taken, then he will take it." 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Prime Minister said that in the September 10 
Cabinet meeting, his Ministers expressed concern and 
described race relations in the country as showing "not so 
good signs," and that a number of sensitive issues which were 
not openly discussed before were being raised. Although the 
government has managed to control the situation thus far, he 
added that "we cannot allow a fiery situation to prevail as 
it could jeopardize the peace and security of our country." 
Responding to a question on whether the government would 
curtail freedom of speech in the country, the PM explained 
that there was no such thing as absolute freedom anywhere in 
the world, noting "People cannot just say whatever they like, 
in the name of free speech, to the extend that it can offend 
and hurt others and jeopardize security." 
 
MAKING GOOD ON THE THREAT 
------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Abdullah's government made good on the threat by 
arresting controversial blogger Raja Petra Kamaruddin at his 
home on September 12, using the ISA.  Home Minister Syed 
Hamid confirmed to reporters that police had detained Raja 
Petra under the ISA provision for persons who pose threats to 
"security, peace and public order."  Raja Petra has 
repeatedly enraged the BN government by, among other things, 
blunting attacking senior political leaders, connecting DPM 
Najib to a murder scandal, and condemning the sodomy 
allegations against Anwar.  Raja Petra currently faces 
sedition and defamation charges.  Septel provides more 
details of the arrest and provides suggested press guidance. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11.  (C) Abdullah has endured a rough week, one that has 
eroded his political strength.  The current tone of the 
direct and indirect challenges to his position are similar to 
those he faced in the first six weeks after the March 8 
election debacle when his continuation in office was an open 
question.  Two factors are increasing the pressure on 
Abdullah at this point.  First, UMNO has become unnerved in 
the face of Anwar Ibrahim's threat to bring down the 
government this month, and the greater Anwar's menace, the 
more UMNO elites consider replacing Abdullah with a stronger 
figure.  Second, the UMNO divisional elections, which select 
delegates to the December party polls, begin on October 9 
almost immediately following the Muslim holidays at the end 
of the Muslim fasting month.  Those leaders who wish to 
challenge Abdullah's reelection and his two-year transition 
to Najib must stake out their positions now and maneuver for 
support, or the opportunity quickly will be lost. 

KEITH