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DE RUEHKG #0766/01 2461439
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P 021439Z SEP 08 ZFF4
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6717
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0541
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0518
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2336
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000766 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR Q ANDRE CADIEU, VELIA DE PIRRO 
INR/IAA Q BOB CARHAT 
WHA/EPSC Q MATT ROONEY 
INL/LP Q AIMES MARTIN 
INL/G-TIP Q BARBARA FLECK 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
JUSTICE FOR ROBERT LIPMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SOCI SNAR ASEC ECON EFIN KCRM KCOR IBRD
IABD, JM, XL 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: HIGH NOON APPROACHES FOR THE 
OPPOSITION PEOPLEQS NATIONAL PARTY (PNP) 
 
REFS: 
¶A. 07 KINGSTON 1336 (042044Z SEP 07) (NOTAL) 
¶B. KINGSTON 310 (141908Z APR 08) (NOTAL) 
¶C. KINGSTON 364 (291558Z APR 08) (NOTAL) 
¶D. 07 KINGSTON 1301 (291156Z AUG 07) (NOTAL) 
¶E. KINGSTON 677 (281941Z JUL 08) (NOTAL) 
¶F. 06 KINGSTON 2021 (121230Z OCT 06) (NOTAL) 
¶G. KINGSTON 176 (271832Z FEB 08) (NOTAL) 
¶H. KINGSTON 647 (221203Z JUL 08) (NOTAL) 
¶I. STATE 90744 (221853Z AUG 08) (NOTAL) 
¶J. KINGSTON 245 (191809Z MAR 08) (NOTAL) 
¶K. KINGSTON 096 (301930Z JAN 07) (NOTAL) 
¶L. KINGSTON 731 (211755Z AUG 08) (NOTAL) 
¶M. KINGSTON 571 (251519Z JUN 08) (NOTAL) 
¶N. KINGSTON 621 (112013Z JUN 08) (NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: Charge dQAffaires a.i. James T. Heg, 
reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d) 
 
Summary and Analysis 
--------------------- 
 
¶1. (C) Following an interlude in which first the Beijing Olympics and 
then the devastation of Hurricane Gustav have monopolized the nation's 
attention, Jamaica now faces a high-stakes political struggle for the 
leadership of the opposition People's National Party (PNP).  On 
September 20, some 4,000 party delegates will cast secret ballots in 
support of either the current Opposition Leader and former Prime 
Minister (PM), the charismatic populist Portia-Simpson-Miller (PSM), or 
the seasoned former Minister of National Security, Dr. Peter Phillips. 
Scripted by a fresh team of advisors and buoyed by a recent up-tick in 
her approval rating, PSM hopes to leverage her grassroots popularity to 
retain the leadership.  For his part, a relaxed, confident Phillips 
sounds certain of victory, and expresses concern over the current 
Jamaican government's relations with the U.S. 
 
¶2. (C) Across the country, tensions are mounting among the PNP rank and 
file.  On August 24, an altercation erupted at party headquarters 
between supporters of PSM and Phillips during which a pistol was 
brandished (but not fired).  Given Jamaica's history of 
politically-motivated violence in the run-up to elections, the next 
three weeks may well bring other such incidents.  As a precaution, the 
party has placed a ban on outdoor meetings, motorcades, and advertising 
in the mass media.  For both Phillips and PSM, political survival hangs 
in the balance; for their respective supporters, the stakes of sinecure 
and patronage are high.  Many PNP parliamentarians are demanding that 
delegates from their respective districts vote as single blocs; 
however, given that the ballot will be secret, some delegates 
inevitably will vote their consciences, thus making the outcome all but 
impossible to predict Q high noon, indeed. 
End summary and analysis. 
 
Phillips:  Relaxed and Confident of Victory 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) In a lengthy private meeting on August 27 at Ambassador's 
residence, former Minister of National Security Peter Phillips appeared 
relaxed and confident of victory in his ongoing campaign to oust former 
Prime Minister (PM) Portia Simpson-Miller (PSM) as President of the 
opposition People's National Party (PNP) at the annual conference 
September 19-21.  Phillips maintained that his supporters "will come 
through" and that "all signs point to success."  He acknowledged the 
stresses of the contest, admitting that at times he simply turns off 
his cell phone to get some rest.  He then expressed concern over 
U.S.-Jamaican relations under PM Bruce Golding's Jamaica Labour Party 
(JLP) government.  Referring to Golding's decline of an invitation to 
meet the President last March at the White House, Phillips claimed that 
"there had to be more to the story" than a scheduling difficulty. 
Ambassador confided that at one point Golding had indicated to her that 
he was "waiting for Obama."  Phillips observed that an elementary rule 
of diplomacy was to respect the office of the head of state rather than 
the individual, and said "someone needs to give the current government 
basic lessons." 
 
¶4. (C) Ambassador then observed that Jamaica needed stronger advocacy 
in Washington; meetings with Department officials and with key 
congressional contacts in order to garner support for Jamaica were 
vital.  Phillips opined that Anthony Johnson had been a poor choice to 
serve as Jamaica's Ambassador in Washington; Golding had appointed him 
as a political payoff.  Phillips said he understood the need for 
Jamaica to have good relations with Cuba and Venezuela, but could not 
understand why Golding was not also maintaining traditional close ties 
with the U.S.  Ambassador observed that it was Jamaica's prerogative to 
court Chavez and Castro, but a mistake not to actively court the U.S.; 
for example, during the December, 2007 visit of Admiral Stavrides, 
high-level GoJ officials had missed an opportunity to cultivate 
SOUTHCOM, whose assistance in helping refurbish the Jamaica Defense 
Force (JDF)'s New Castle camp might be invaluable.  In response to 
Ambassador's inquiry, Phillips said he was "perplexed" over the current 
Government's delay in implementing Jamaica's new asset forfeiture laws. 
 Ambassador observed that PM Golding's proposed national athletic 
program would be a perfect use for funds acquired from asset 
forfeitures. 
 
The Phillips Camp's Perspective: "Reason Will Triumph Over Emotion" 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) In an August 16 private meeting with poloff, local PNP 
organizers Lorenzo Ellis and Karen Cross, both strong supporters of 
Phillips, exuded confidence in his victory.  Ellis maintained that PSM 
had lost the national election of 2007 (reftel A) because she had 
"misread the Jamaican electorate;" Phillips stood a better chance of 
uniting and leading both the PNP and the country at large.  Ellis 
expressed confidence that Phillips, academically trained in political 
sociology, would have a better chance of besting PM Golding in a 
national election.  Cross and Ellis posited that once the Supreme Court 
rules on whether dual citizens can retain seats in the government 
(reftels B, C), this may set the stage for parliamentary elections in 
¶2009.  Cross said that the "natural affinity between the PNP and 
grassroots poor people" would be a strong asset to the party in any 
election held during this period of increased cost of living and 
economic stagnation.  She wants to see the party adopt a national 
economic policy which would "regulate without being statist."  Cross 
and Ellis acknowledged that PSM retains strong popularity, but 
expressed hope that during the party convention the majority of the 
expected 4,000 delegates will vote rationally rather than emotionally. 
 
PSM Camp's Perspective: a Fresh Start 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Prominent PNP Senator Basil Waite, in a private meeting with 
poloff on August 18, reconfirmed his support for Simpson-Miller.  He 
maintained that the challenge to her leadership had been launched 
"unfairly," dividing the party when the PNP "needs to be a part of the 
national discussion, not infighting."  Waite objected to Phillips' 
"hypocrisy" in criticizing the PNP's recent policies, noting that 
Phillips himself had been a member of the steering committee which had 
drafted the party's manifesto (reftel D).  Waite assessed that 
Simpson-Miller's "heart is in the right place" in terms of seeing her 
role as a defender of the poor; her major weakness was "her distrust of 
others."  Waite said that initially, PSM had selected her inner circle 
based on their personal loyalty rather than on their expertise.  He 
referred to PSM's inner circle as "a set of losers," and said that he 
and others among her supporters have set about replacing her close 
advisors with capable technocrats.  Waite maintained that PSM's 
greatest strength was that Jamaicans listen to her, and said frankly, 
"she can be scripted as a vehicle" (note: Waite has written several 
speeches for Simpson-Miller). 
 
¶7. (C) Waite then emphasized the need for national electoral reforms. 
He maintained that there are links between campaign finance reform and 
general development, and asserted that drug barons have funded many 
political campaigns and then have sought quid-pro-quo benefits.  He 
alleged that the recently deported felon Norris "Dido" Nembhard (reftel 
E) had been "surprised to be extradited by a JLP government after 
having swung the election for that party."  Waite said he would like to 
see further U.S. assistance on improving campaign finance regulations, 
and spoke about endemic social problems "when the drug trade is reduced 
but guns still remain in the hands of volatile, now unemployed young 
 
people."  Waite assessed that "Jamaica is on the tipping point of 
becoming a failed state." 
 
8.(C)  On August 14, "Team PNP," the group supporting PSM, designated 
Waite, Lisa Hanna, Angela Brown-Burke, Damion Crawford, Ian Hayles, 
Natalie Neita Headley, Easton Douglas, Mark Golding, Raymond Price, and 
former Foreign Minister Anthony Hylton as official spokespersons. 
(Note: this group is made up largely of the "capable technocrats" to 
whom Waite alluded).  Conspicuously absent from the list were a number 
of longtime PSM loyalists: 
 
-- former PNP General Secretary and Senator Colin Campbell, who was 
disgraced in the Trafigura campaign finance scandal (reftel F); 
 
-- former Minister of Industry, Commerce, Science, and Technology 
Phillip Paulwell, who has been indicted on corruption charges in the 
Cuban light bulb distribution imbroglio (reftel G); 
 
 -- former PNP General Secretary Donald Buchanan, whose acerbic, 
combative style has done little to further PSM's cause; 
 
-- the flamboyant, gregarious former Minister of Agriculture Roger 
Clarke (note: at a subsequent PNP rally, Clarke made light of not being 
named a spokesperson, claiming his real role was that of "Portia's 
official bloodhound;" on August 26 "Team PNP" added Clarke's name to 
its list of spokespersons). 
 
Vice-Presidential Contenders Split Along Factional Lines 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The PNP's division into PSM's and Phillips' factions is 
mirrored in the eight candidates running for the party's four 
vice-presidential positions: 
 
(A) Angela Brown-Burke, Derrick Kellier, Noel Arscott, and Bunny Witter 
remain loyal to PSM; 
 
(B) Sharon Haye-Webster, Harry Douglas, Fenton Ferguson, and Wykeham 
McNeil back Phillips. 
 
Most delegates are expected to vote along straight factional lines, 
thus increasing the possibility that either PSM's or Phillips' 
supporters may be locked out altogether from prominent party positions. 
 
Background:  Endgame in a Labyrinthine Three-Dimensional Chess Match 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) As noted reftel (H), the impending showdown between PSM and 
Phillips will be the final move in a labyrinthine game of 
three-dimensional political chess which has been underway since May, 
2002, when newly-reelected former-PM P.J. Patterson announced he would 
not lead the PNP in any future elections.  Patterson touched off a 
bitter succession struggle for the party presidency among the seasoned 
heir-apparent Phillips, then-Finance Minister Omar Davies, the 
charismatic populist PSM, and then-Minister of Water and Housing Karl 
Blythe.  PSM's eventual victory left deep wounds from which, despite a 
veneer of unity during the 2005-06 PNP Government, the party never has 
recovered. 
 
Analysis: the Charismatic Populist vs. the Seasoned Political Operative 
--------------------------------------------- -------------------------- 
 
¶11. (C) PSM always has appealed to the grassroots electorate; it is 
revealing that Waite, a Harvard-educated Senator, is now squarely in 
her camp.  He spent several years in the U.S. completing an M.A. in 
public policy at the Kennedy School and working for the World Bank 
before returning to Jamaica to open businesses and enter politics.  He 
currently is an appointed Senator for the opposition party, but seems 
to have greater political aspirations.  With Waite scripting PSM's 
policy goals and working with a like-minded group of savvy kingmakers, 
the former Prime Minister hopes to leverage her popularity and retain 
leadership of the PNP.  Distancing herself (at least publicly) from 
Campbell, Paulwell, and Buchanan is part of this "fresh direction" 
strategy. 
 
¶12. (C) For his part, Phillips is very much in the mold of the 
well-educated, wealthy elite who traditionally have led the PNP, i.e., 
Michael and Norman Manley and P.J. Patterson.  In recent speeches he 
has called for the party to return to its "core socialist values," but 
also privately has offered assurances to Washington that he does not 
intend for the PNP to readopt its disastrous leftist economic agenda of 
the 1970s.  The Phillips camp is widely believed to have grown stronger 
over recent weeks, marshaling powerful financial backing.  His 
grassroots activists are getting their message out in the days leading 
up to the party convention.  More ominously, the powerful reputed 
organized crime figure Kenneth "Skeng Don" Black reportedly has shifted 
his support from PSM to Phillips (reftels H,I). 
 
13.(C)  Across the country, tensions are mounting among the PNP rank 
and file.  On August 24, an altercation erupted at Party headquarters 
between supporters of PSM and Phillips during which a pistol was 
brandished (but not fired).  Given Jamaica's history of 
politically-motivated violence in the run-up to elections, the next 
three weeks may well see other such incidents.  As a precaution, the 
party has placed a ban on outdoor meetings, motorcades, and advertising 
in the mass media in the run-up to September 20.  For both Phillips and 
PSM, political survival hangs in the balance; for their respective 
supporters, the stakes of sinecure and patronage are high.  Many 
parliamentarians are demanding that delegates from their respective 
districts vote as single blocs; however, given that the ballot will be 
secret, some delegates inevitably will defy their MPs and vote their 
consciences Q high noon, indeed.  The PNP leadership battle has given 
the Golding-led JLP government some breathing space, but once the 
question is decided, the PNP can be expected to renew its pressure on 
the government. 
 
Implications for the U.S. 
----------------------------- 
 
14.(C)  As noted reftel (H), from Post's perspective the worst outcome 
of the looming PNP struggle would be a party in which the influence of 
the more moderate and pragmatic Phillips faction had been sharply 
diminished, with Simpson-Miller remaining Opposition Leader surrounded 
by, and beholden to, such left-wing PSM-loyalists as Donald Buchanan, 
Paul Burke, and Phillip Paulwell.  That PSM apparently is now 
relying more on the advice of Waite, Hayles, Headley, and Hylton is 
encouraging -- though it would be a stretch to believe that she has 
embarked on a crusade to weed out corruption in the party.  On the othe 
hand, Kenneth Black's shift to support Phillips is disturbing; if 
Phillips becomes Opposition Leader and eventually forms the next 
government, these ties could well come back to haunt him -- and to 
complicate bilateral cooperation in law enforcement and anti-corruption 
efforts. 
 
HEG