VZCZCXYZ0012
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUB #0781/01 2702018
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 262018Z SEP 08
FM USINT HAVANA
TO RUCOWCV/CCGDSEVEN MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3761
RUCOWCX/CCGDEIGHT NEW ORLEANS LA PRIORITY
INFO RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 0547
RUEHBH/AMEMBASSY NASSAU 0034
RUEHPU/AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE 0009
RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO 0027
RUCOWCV/MARINCEN MIAMI FL
RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM CMD CTR MACDILL AFB FL
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAHLC/HOMELAND SECURITY CENTER WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/NAVINTELOFC GUANTANAMO BAY CU
RUESDM/JTLO MIAMI FL
RHMFISS/FBI WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFHLC/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
RUCOWCA/COMLANTAREA COGARD PORTSMOUTH VA 0125
RUCOWCV/COMCOGARD SECTOR KEY WEST FL
RHMFISS/COGARD INTELCOORDCEN WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000781 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2018 
TAGS: SNAR PGOV PREL SMIG PHUM CU
SUBJECT: LIKELIHOOD OF A CUBAN MASS MIGRATION FOLLOWING 
HURRICANE DESTRUCTION 
 
Classified By: COM JONATHAN D. FARRAR, REASONS 1.4 B & D 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Hurricane season 2008 has been especially 
unkind to the island of Cuba.  Four consecutive storms, 
concluding with the most recent, Hurricane IKE, left much of 
the island in shambles.  Buildings and homes, tobacco and 
sugar crops, and island-wide infrastructure have all been 
affected, including 444,000 damaged houses, and 63,000 houses 
destroyed.  The level of destruction has led many Cuba 
watchers to ask whether a Cuban mass migration is likely in 
the near future.  While the aforementioned events have indeed 
been historic in proportion, from our vantage point we see no 
indication that a mass migration from Cuba is pending. 
However, U.S. Interests Section (USINT) believes this is an 
issue that must be given due deference as the outcome of 
post-hurricane recovery efforts will play a large role in 
determining whether Cubans take to the sea or remain on the 
island.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) During post-hurricane interactions with a variety of 
sources in Cuba, USINT personnel have not detected any 
indication a mass migration from Cuba is pending.  Further, 
Cubans who have regular contact with USINT (mainly 
dissidents, refugees, and religious groups), including those 
from Pinar del Rio, one of the worst hit and affected Cuban 
provinces, have not reported the existence of rumors or 
preparations by Cubans to depart the island in increased 
numbers or larger go-fast or rustica loads. 
 
¶3.  (C) In conversation with Cuban Ministry of Interior 
(MININT) personnel, specifically the Cuban Border Guard 
(CBG), the USINT Coast Guard Drug Interdiction Specialist 
(DIS) learned that some CBG coastal outpost units in Ciego de 
Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas provinces were damaged during 
the wave of hurricanes, and that CBG troops are busy making 
repairs to infrastructure there.  However, as expected, a CBG 
Colonel informed the DIS that CBG patrols have not been 
scaled back.  It should be noted that during a separate 
meeting with MININT/CBG personnel immediately following the 
passing of IKE, the same Colonel asked the DIS whether the US 
Coast Guard was planning "an operation" following that most 
recent hurricane; DIS believes the Colonel's question, in the 
context of the meeting and conversation, was an attempt to 
gauge whether the US government was concerned about an 
increase in Cuban migrant departures or mass migration, and 
inadvertently suggested himself that there was a fear on the 
part of the CBG that at least an increase in Cuban migration 
numbers was possible. 
 
¶4.  (C) Cubans we speak with are increasingly frustrated with 
the difficulties caused by the hurricanes and the GOC's 
refusal to accept some foreign assistance offers.  However, 
the Cuban people possess a rather high boiling point: Cubans 
have adopted a wait-and-see posture, also doing the best they 
can in the interim to reinstall some sense of Cuban-style 
"normalcy."  Via Cuban state broadcast television and radio, 
the GOC has urged Cubans to fight, be disciplined, and 
exhibit solidarity following each hurricane's destructive 
path, and encouraged Cubans to work harder to overcome 
current conditions. 
 
¶5.  (C) While there have been no suggestions of a mass 
migration event from Cuba, the ingredients necessary for the 
Cuban people and/or government to cook-up such a scenario 
have manifested in Cuba over the past two months- they 
include: multiple natural disasters, damaged or destroyed 
infrastructure, an apparent shortage of food on the island, 
significantly increased fuel prices, and a Cuban government 
whose post-hurricane response and recovery "expertise" are in 
demand and are apparently spread dangerously thin from the 
Province of Pinar del Rio in the west to Guantanamo Province 
in the east, and in every province in between.  Further, as 
the rise and fall of Cuban migrant flow relies heavily on 
weather conditions and sea state, the chances for an 
increased egress of Cuban migrants prior to the winter cold 
fronts and subsequent heavy seas would be more likely.  Many 
Cubans may attempt to depart the island hoping to beat the 
heavy seas or reunite with family in south Florida prior to 
the holiday season; this hurricane season may exacerbate that 
trend. 
 
¶6.  (C) Comment:  While the international community has its 
eyes fixed on Cuba's pending response to the offers of 
financial and resource assistance from the US government to 
the GOC, it is possible that Cuban authorities will attempt 
to mitigate the departure of Cuban migrants from the island 
towards the United States to avoid negative press and 
embarrassment.  However, as international interest wanes, 
Cuban authorities may also lose interest in curtailing the 
flow of Cubans towards the United States.  End Comment. 
FARRAR