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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001380 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2028 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION ELECTS CONSENSUS CANDIDATES IN TACHIRA 
STATE -- BUT VICTORY UNCERTAIN 
 
CARACAS 00001380  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ 
FOR REASON 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  The Christian Democratic Party of Venezuela 
(Copei) won a decisive victory in the September 28 opposition 
primary in the western state of Tachira to determine the 
consensus candidates for the November 23 state and local 
elections.  The opposition now claims that it has 20 
consensus candidates out of 22 gubernatorial candidates. 
Nevertheless, the opposition mayor of San Cristobal continues 
to contest the Comptroller's decision to declare him 
ineligible to run and said he will stay in the Tachira 
gubernatorial race if he wins timely judicial relief. 
Tachira is one of several gubernatorial races that local 
pundits believe the opposition could win, but only if 
opposition parties stick to a single candidate and mobilize 
far more voters than it did for its primary.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) conducted a 
September 28 primary for the opposition in Tachira State, a 
potential opposition stronghold on the border with Colombia. 
CNE Vice President Janeth Hernandez presided over the 
primary, which was open to all eligible voters in Tachira. 
Just as it did with Chavez's United Socialist Party of 
Venezuela (PSUV), the CNE conducted the primary on a 
reimbursable basis.  Enrique Marquez, an electoral expert 
with Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT), told poloff September 25 that the 
CNE charged the participating opposition parties less than 
its costs for running the election.  He speculated that the 
CNE is trying to bolster its credibility with opposition 
parties. 
 
--------------------------- 
COPEI CANDIDATE THE VICTOR? 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) COPEI gubernatorial candidate Cesar Perez Vivas won 
over 44 percent of the vote in Tachira state, about 35,000 of 
the 81,000 votes cast.  Gabino Paz, a former Copeyano who ran 
with Red Flag (Bandera Roja) support, came in second with 
over 23 percent and the next two contenders received 18 
(Gustavo Azocar of UNT) and 10 percent each.  Monica Mendez, 
the wife of the mayor of San Cristobal, won the mayoral 
primary for San Cristobal, the capital of Tachira State, with 
over 50 percent of the vote.  Her husband William Mendez is 
in his second term as mayor of San Cristobal and ineligible 
to run again.  Approximately 10 percent of the state's 
eligible voting population came out to cast a ballot in the 
primary.  The opposition will need to mobilize far more 
voters if it expects to win the governorship in November. 
Tachira Governor Ronald Blanco La Cruz won in 2004 by 
securing 169,000 of the 295,000 overall valid votes cast. 
Chavez's United Socialist Party of Venezuela also held 
primaries in Tachira and were able to generate a far greater 
voter turnout, indicating that they may be able to mobilize 
the votes necessary to defeat the opposition candidate in 
November. 
 
¶4. (C) San Cristobal Mayor William Mendez was the leading 
opposition contender for the gubernatorial race, according to 
public opinion polls, but the Comptroller General declared 
him ineligible to run based on administrative sanctions. 
Despite Perez Vivas' strong win, Mendez has nevertheless 
refused to bow out of the race.  He told the press on 
September 28 that "I continue to be first in the polls" and 
pledged to continue to fight his disqualification before the 
Supreme Court, which has yet to issue its decision on his 
individual appeal.  Mendez challenged Perez Vivas to yet 
another internal contest, should the judiciary reinstate his 
eligibility.  His wife Monica, however, held a joint press 
conference with Perez Vivas on September 29 to discuss their 
plans for the state and opposition unity, suggesting that 
William Mendez could be swayed to fall into line behind Perez 
Vivas. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶5. (C) Tachira and Aragua are the only two states in which 
the opposition has held primaries to determine their 
consensus candidates.  Tachira is also one of several states 
that local pundits believe the opposition could win. In both 
cases, the primaries are likely to give the winners greater 
legitimacy and an electoral boost.  However, similar 
primaries by the PSUV had far greater participation.   With 
 
CARACAS 00001380  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
nearly twice as many votes as the runner-up, Perez Vivas 
could be a strong candidate to run under the opposition's 
banner.  Mendez's public fight to the bitter end, however, 
highlights the damaging lack of unity among the opposition 
and the refusal of many of its members to put the defeat of 
Chavista candidates before personal ambition. 
 
CAULFIELD