P 260706Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0247
INFO AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 
NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000983 
 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2018 
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIAN WEEKLY POLITICAL ROUNDUP 2008-7 
 
REF: CANBERRA 896 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole, for reasons 1.4 (b) a 
nd (d). 
 
POLL SHOCK FOR ALP STATES 
 
¶1. (C/NF) The most recent quarterly Newspolls suggest 
Australian Labor Party (ALP) state governments in Queensland 
and South Australia are in trouble.  After preferences, the 
ALP leads the Liberal National Party (LNP) 51-49 in 
Queensland in the first Newspoll taken since the Queensland 
Liberals and Nationals merged in July.  In the previous 
Newspoll, the ALP led the Coalition 55-45.  In South 
Australia, the ALP and the Liberals are tied 50-50, down from 
a 54-46 ALP advantage in the last poll.  Federal ALP MP Julie 
Collins (a former ALP Tasmanian State Secretary) also told us 
recently that the decade-old Tasmanian ALP government is also 
in trouble, despite a leadership change in May.  New ALP 
Senator David Feeney, one of the party's smartest 
strategists, noted that these results are more an indication 
of long-term ALP governments wearing out their political 
welcome than any trend against the ALP per se (see reftel). 
Before his election, Feeney was ALP Assistant National 
Secretary.  He was director of the marginal seats campaign 
for the 2007 election, and was campaign manager for South 
Australian Premier Mike Rann's prior campaign (which resulted 
in a big win for Labor).  The Queensland state elections will 
likely be held in late 2009, and the South Australian and 
Tasmanian elections in early 2010. 
 
BAD START FOR NEW SHADOW TREASURER 
 
¶2. (SBU) Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop had an 
embarrassing start to her new portfolio.  On Monday evening - 
the day of her appointment - Bishop stumbled in a radio 
interview when asked what the official interest rate was.  On 
Tuesday, it was revealed that her first speech as Shadow 
Treasurer plagiarized a Wall Street Journal article.  Bishop 
tried to spin her way out of both blunders, but merely dug 
herself into a bigger hole.  The ALP ridiculed her in 
Question Time, and the media piled on. It was an unwelcome 
distraction for the Coalition which is trying to keep the 
focus on old-age pensions and the economy. 
 
RUDD WON'T CAVE IN TO THE UNIONS 
 
¶3. (C/NF) The Rudd government is not budging on its 
industrial relations policies despite vigorous lobbying by 
unions and pressure from some ALP MPs.  The unions want a 
lifting of restrictions on what can be bargained for by the 
parties to a workplace agreement.  They also want provisions 
for arbitration of wage disputes, and the abolition of the 
building industry watchdog.  ALP Senator Feeney told us those 
he characterized as the "rock apes" in the union movement 
will get nowhere.  He said Rudd won't change policies he 
brought to the election, and the Prime Minister has 
"unprecedented authority" in Caucus.  He praised the approach 
of union pragmatists like Australian Workers Union Secretary 
Paul Howes who is pushing for changes which accord with ALP 
policy. 
 
TWO OUT OF THREE FOR ALP IN THE SENATE 
 
¶4. (SBU) Two high-profile Rudd government budget measures - 
staunchly opposed by the Coalition - passed the Senate this 
week.  The increase to the luxury car tax passed with 
amendments moved by the Greens and the two other swing 
Senators.  The removal of the tax exemption for oil 
condensate (the exemption introduced in 1977 to encourage 
exploration in the North West Shelf) passed with an amendment 
moved by Independent Senator Nick Xenophon.  However, the 
Coalition and Family First Senator Stephen Fielding combined 
QCoalition and Family First Senator Stephen Fielding combined 
to block the proposed lifting of the Medicare Levy Surcharge 
threshold. The Surcharge was introduced by the Howard 
government in 1997 to encourage the take-up of private health 
insurance. The lifting of the threshold, which has always" 
been $50,000 for individuals, is projected to result in 
people leaving private health insurance, putting upward 
pressure on premiums.  Fielding is holding out for 
compensation for low income earners who will pay higher 
premiums.  Acting Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the 
Liberal party had denied 400,000 Australians a tax cut. 
 
MCCALLUM